A week full of halves

And here we go.  The last semester of my college career has finally started and I couldn’t ask for better conditions!  Relatively easy classes and an outstanding line-up in terms of jobs really leaves me optimistic for the months to come.  Here is to the Spring 2012 semester.  Let’s finish of strong with a 4.0!

This week: the difficulty of finishing of a revolution and what to expect from an Egyptian parliament under Brotherhood rule.

A job halfway done

As Libya moves on into a future without Gaddafi, it has to face what too many other countries after a revolution already have: the difficulties of making the succeeding regime seem legitimate in the eyes of the revolutionaries.  The attacks on the offices of the transitional government earlier this week give testimony to that.  While Libya is fighting with itself to restore order (and put all those loose weapons back into their lockers) it has difficulty upholding international treaties that the previous regime had signed.  The due date for complete eradication of chemical weapons in Libya by April 29^th, 2012, as part of global initiative to eliminate chemical weapons will not be kept by Libya due to the political turmoil in the country.

The problem is not starting the revolution, but ending it.  Yes, everyone might agree that it is time to pick up arms and change the status quo, but the ideal state that is envisioned by each individual that takes part in a revolution is very different.  How to appease the people, especially those that filled the ranks of the militias that drove Gaddafi’s regime to ruin?  The attacks on the transitional government’s offices took place because of the continued presence of Gaddafi’s cronies in the current regime.  Take them out and only the most radical will be left to fend for their fringe political ideals.  Then maybe Libya can face more urgent problems, like the eradication of chemical weapons in a country that has seen a surge in violence due to the lax culture surrounding weapons and violence that follows a revolution.

Into a brighter future?

The final results of the parliamentary elections in Egypt are finally in and the Muslim Brotherhood (to the dismay of many Israelis and Islamophobists) will provide 47% of the 508 member strong lower house of parliament.  Surprisingly, only 54% of all those eligible to vote showed at the polls.  The Brotherhood was quick to assure that the new parliament would be “reconciliatory.”

 I hope that the Muslim Brotherhood will hold its promise of forming a coalition with a secular party to gain the majority in parliament to nominate a prime minister.  What I find most surprising from all of this is the low voter turnout.  Only 54% showed up at the polls.  While this number is still far higher than the average voter turn out in the United States, it should come as a surprise that a country that had been abused for decades by an authoritarian regime does not chose to literally storm the polls at the first opportunity to vote in a free and fair election.  I guess some of the critics must be right.  Maybe the people of Egypt are not ready for a democracy after all.

Other Links

Yemen’s President Saleh ‘leaves country’ for treatment

Hamas political chief to step down

The week in pictures

Murder in Tehran

Beleaguered but still unbowed

Why Iran Is going for Nukes and Why Regional Exclusion matters

 “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won’t cross the street to vote in a national election.” – American saying.

This week was national Election Day, and unfortunately as usual the voter turnout was most likely less than 50% of the voting-eligible population.  Judging from the above saying you can probably see how I feel about the low voter turnout.  As a citizen of Germany, the right to vote was apparently brought back to my fellow countrymen and me by the American forces that defeated the fascist Third Reich.  Imagine how it must feel to see that democracy lacks the active support of the majority of American people.  To vote on the future of the most powerful nation of the world is a privilege that I would love to have.  So do your nation (and me) a favor and use the privilege that was given to you by our troops.  On that note, I hope you thanked a veteran on Veterans Day!

This week I will discuss how a nuclear Iran would impact the United States and Iran’s neighbors, and the fact that Syrian was suspended from the Arab League and what this might mean for the future of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime.

What a Nuclear Iran means to US

With the release of the recent IAEA report about Iran’s nuclear program it now seems clear and obvious that Iran is trying to acquire a nuclear warhead.  Understandably, Israel and other countries in the region now fear that a Shiite Iran, already standing out as stranger to its mostly Sunni neighbors, will show no remorse using a nuclear warhead. 

I think it is time for Israel and the United States to face the fact that Iran will inevitably possess nukes.  Does that make it right?  Of course not.  Yet, Iran would not be the first country to acquire nuclear warheads if one is to believe the rumors about the Israeli arsenal of weapons.  A nuclear Iran would ensure that Israel will be more considerate before striking targets outside of its borders (especially Hezbollah in southern Lebanon), since a nuclear Iran could threaten to respond disproportionally with a nuclear warhead.  The most important thing to consider now is not how to keep Iran from going nuclear, but how to make Iran fit into regional politics as a nuclear power while making sure that no one else tries to go down the nuclear road.  Other measures besides the relatively weak sanctions program of the UN will have to be considered to ensure that no one else gains the potential to annihilate human life so effectively.

Can intervention by a regional body lead to the end of a regime? (I’m sure Gaddafi would think so.)

Syria is set to be suspended from the Arab League on Wednesday after a deal that was struck between the League and Syria did not show the desired effects of ending the bloodshed perpetrated by the Syrian regime against its own people.  Syria promptly called for an emergency meeting before the suspension takes effect so that the case can be reviewed.

If the Syrian regime did not know that full membership in the Arab League mattered to its continued survival, it would not try to petition the Arab League’s decision to suspend it from the organization.  Besides another victory for the international system for being so influential on states, this shows us that Syria has just entered the murky waters that Libya was in about half a year ago.  Even though the League does not support a no-fly zone like the one that contributed to Gaddafi’s downfall, the suspension adds more pressure to Syria and makes it an even bigger outcast than it already is.  The suspension was followed by raids from Syrian civilians on the embassies of the countries that voted in favor of the suspension.  If that does not show what kind of actions the Syrian state supports than I do not know what does.

Other Links
Bahrain breaks up terror cell - state media
Iran explosion at Revolutionary Guards military base
US defense chief Panetta warns against Iran strike
Egypt closes Pyramid amid 11/11/11 rumours
In Pictures: The world in 24 hours

Revolution from within and averting violence from without

“Remember, remember the 5^th of November the gunpowder treason and plot.  I know of no reason why the gunpowder treason should ever be forgot.”  Those are the lines that start one of my favorite movies: V for Vendetta.  The movie depicts the steps that lead to an all out revolution against a fascist government in a fictional Great Britain of the future.  The movie certainly seems to be inspired by the book 1984 written by George Orwell.  A book that I would strongly recommend everyone reads in order to get a better idea of what it might be like to live under a government that controls absolutely everything about you.  I am sure that there are those in Egypt who can very well connect to the live of Winston Smith, the protagonist of 1984.  Constantly afraid of discovery by the secret police, he ultimately shares the fate that many of the enemies of the Egyptian state suffered under Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak.

To chime in with my piece from two weeks ago entitled “Negotiating with the Bad Guys,” I will briefly discuss an article written for The Guardian which discusses why it is not bad to talk to people like Gaddafi, and then I will move on to give my two cents on how states should engage diplomatically with Syria.  As always check the end of the post for interesting links.

Why negotiating with rogue states is important

In his article “There’s no shame in talking to people like Gaddafi,” John Deverell makes the argument that direct negotiations and relationship building between government officials is a useful way in which to guarantee world peace.  His title specifically refers to the success of convincing the Libyan government to abandon its nuclear arms program.  Yet, he also gives some great examples like the Good Friday Agreement reached between the IRA and the British Government under the guidance of Senator George Mitchell in 1998, or the recent exchange of prisoners between Israel and Hamas for the Israel soldier Gilad Shalit.  All three of these examples could not have happened without serious involvement of government officials.

I seriously support John Deverell in his argument.  Negotiations should be the first and hopefully last resort in avoiding potential conflict.  Let’s go ahead and apply his thinking to another potential conflict.  Instead of taunting each other, there should be closer negotiations between Israel and Iran led by an easily deniable third party.  This could be done by an NGO that is willing and able to go back and forth between the two states.  This way, basic terms for a peaceful resolve could be laid out to each other and talks could move to the infamous stage of “talks about talks.”  Possibly a conflict could be averted and Israel would not have to hold drills for missile attacks like the ones that are shown in the link at the bottom of the post.

Why recognize an illegitimate regime

Robert Ford, the Ambassador of the United States to the Syrian Republic, was pulled out of Syria after he was accused by local media (widely controlled by the Syrian state) of aiding Syrian rebels.  These accusations were followed with threats to his life online and on the walls of his very home. 

The posting of a diplomat to a state implies that there is at least some kind of recognition by the sending state for the receiving state.  After what the Syrian government has done to its people during the past months in the uprisings that have been taking place, the State of Syria does not deserve any recognition by any other state.  Therefore, I believe that the United States should not only pull out its ambassador to Syria, but it also pull out all remaining personnel stationed in the country.  By taking away recognition to the regime of Al-Assad, his position as the legitimate leader will be challenged and those remaining under the impression that he should remain in power will be weakened in resolve.  The United States should herald in a movement that could set a beginning to the end of recognition of the illegitimate regime of Bashar Al-Assad.

Other

In Pictures: Eid al-Adha

Graves of the deposed, exiled and reviled

Activists on Gaza-bound vessels detained

Israelis hold drills for missile attack

New Iran nuclear report set to increase Middle East tensions

Defensive Rhetoric and why the International Criminal Court should sometime reconsider its jurisdiction

Happy Snowoween?  The northeast of the United States just saw several inches of snow and Halloween has not even passed yet.  Never in my life have I seen snow fall this early in the year.  Along with the snow that fell came the many arguments for the fact that global warming is true.  Facebook exploded with comments about the early snow and global warming.  My favorite was: “I told you so. #AlGore.” because it exactly summarizes what my view on this topic is.  While I might not be greatly engaged with the environmental scene, I do believe that if we do not consciously reduce our carbon output we will slowly but surely destroy the planet we live on and with it the future of humanity.  It makes me proud to see that my country of birth, Germany, is the global leader in countering current carbon dioxide levels, but it upsets me to see that so little is done by other states around the world.  If you think that global warming is a myth, then chances are that you also have a more realistic view on politics in the world.  There is a very easy way to convince you to reduce the use of carbon based fuels that is tied to the region that this blog is about.  The United States and other western powers are prone to being blackmailed by such countries as Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia as long as we keep relying on their oil resources.  If we want to see our countries free from foreign influence we will have to start finding alternative energies that can be produced at home and not abroad.  Strategies like these will ensure that the United States and other western powers will remain crucial international players in the coming decade.

This week I will focus on Syria’s continued crackdown on its population, and on the justice that Saif al-Islam, Gaddafi’s son, can expect when he is captured.

Syria: A repeat of Libya or another Afghanistan?

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has warned the West that if it was to intervene in the country it would cause an earthquake in the region.  He further stated that if the West was to intervene, another Afghanistan would be born out of the ruins of the Syrian regime. After seven months of protests the UN estimates that 3000 have died in the mostly non-violent protests.  After the bloodiest clashes to date on Saturday, the Arab League finally issued a statement issuing its concerns about the continued killing of Syrian civilians.  Furthermore, a new group called the Free Syrian Army has formed.  The group is made up of defectors from the Syrian army and is based out of the Turkish-Syrian border region.  They could be the start of the first coordinated violent response to the continued crackdown by President al-Assad’s forces.  There have been calls for international intervention, but so far nothing has happened due to the veto of China and Russia in the Security Council about anything that has to do with Syria.

It is time for the international community to act and help the Syrian people to depose of their leader.  Even if he had some kind of legitimacy before the uprising, he definitely eroded the last bit of it when he decided to roll out his tanks against his own people.  The rhetoric that Assad uses, reminds one of the same kind of talk that Gaddafi as his power started to wane.  Gaddafi talked about the “Crusaders” who had come to take Libya like in ancient times.  He attempted to mobilize his people.  Assad on the other hand uses the comparison to Afghanistan in order to deter foreign forces from intervening.  Why does he do this?  Because he knows that his own people do not stand behind him since he is the minority Shia ruler of a mostly Sunni country.  Can Russia and China really stand behind a leader that is not recognized as legitimate by his own people?  I understand that these two countries want to preserve their strong ties with the Syrian state, but in the long-run they will fail in accomplishing their goal because the victory of the people of Syria is inevitable.  When they come to power they will make sure to reconsider ties with those who spoke out against them during their revolution.  My hopes now lie with the Free Syrian Army which will hopefully gain momentum as the crackdown by Syrian forces grows more intense.

Libya: Between International and Domestic Justice

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son and heir apparent to Gaddafi’s Libya, was called "the last piece” in bringing Gaddafi’s Libya to an end by Colonel Ahmed Bani, the military spokesman for Libya’s interim government.  The ICC has reported that Saif has been in contact with it through intermediaries and that he wanted to prove his innocence so that the court would withdraw the warrant that was issued on him.  Meanwhile, the interim government has voiced its desire to give Saif a trial in Libya despite the warrant on his head by the ICC.  Despite the legal debacle about “the last piece” Libya seems to be well on its way towards a more liberal political system and the countries oil production is recovering far faster than the one in Iraq did after the Second Gulf War.

Despite the fact that Libya is not a member of the ICC, I would like to make an argument about the appropriateness of the ICC to intervene in cases of internal regime change.  Should the ICC in a case like Libya still have the right to prosecute criminals associated with the former regime over the new regime that more accurately presents the will of the people?  Given the cruel justice that Saif’s father received the answer might be no, but in all honesty I think that in this case the state should be allowed to exercise its sovereignty despite the commendable goals that the ICC has.  Libya could prove that it has a judicial system that is just and respectful by putting Saif on trial.  This would help to lessen the impact that Gaddafi’s killing has had on the perception of Libya abroad (as discussed last week).  And by the way, do you seriously think that Saif has any desire to proof his innocence to a relatively weak court that issued a warrant on him and his father?  I think it more likely that he will escape Libya (if he hasn’t yet) and search refuge somewhere where the ICC will never get its hands on him.  Hopefully, not too much efforts will be wasted on finding Saif as Libya should start looking towards the future.  There is no point in dwelling about the past too much.

Other Links

How Egypt's activists used social media and Cairo's taxis

Israeli air strikes kill nine militants

When Dad goes to war

Arab Spring activists win human rights award

Germany faces questions over alleged spy agency involvement in Libya

The Death of Kings and the Necessity of Negotiating with Terrorists

I just returned from the 2011 National Model United Nations Conference in Washington, DC.  These conferences are a great exercise in public speaking and diplomacy, but sadly they also show the weaknesses that exist in the world of international politics.  Every time I return from a Model UN conference I wonder how useful the international system actually is in solving issues that matter to us.  By no means is the UN a useless organization, but the flaws that exist when member-states are still not willing to cede some sovereignty to an organization promoting global governance cannot be ignored.  Consensus voting as it is practiced by the General Assembly will never bring humanity to adhere to greater standards, simply because we always agree on the lowest common denominator when it comes to issues like poverty, famine, and human rights.  What am I trying to say?  Member-states of the UN should grant the organization more powers so that issues that plague humanity can be solved by the parliament that governs humanity.

Given the great weekend I had in DC, please do not expect this post to be intellectually stimulating in any kind of way.  I am extremely exhausted, but wish to publish this post right now so that you don’t have to wait an extra day for your weekly post.  This week I am going to focus on the circumstances of Gaddafi’s death and I am going to discuss the situation and future of Somalia.  As always check the end of the post for articles I consider important as well.

The King is Dead! Long Live the Republic!

As I am sure you have already heard Colonel Gaddafi, the King of Kings of Africa, has finally met his end.  After 42 years of rule, Gaddafi was supposedly shot in the head by one of the soldiers that led the attack on the autocrat’s convoy as he tried to escape his birthplace of Sirte.  A bullet hole on the left side of his head marks the entrance point of the bullet that ended the longest rule of any man in all of Africa.  His body is now on display in a storage freezer in the city of Misrata which had seen the fiercest fighting during the eight month long revolution.

What is wrong with all of this?  Well seen from the point of view of the average Libyan, the Colonel probably got what he had coming in a more timely fashion without the delay of a justice system.  The death of Gaddafi was brought about by a soldier who in the Battle of Sirte could have been carried away by the bloodlust and emotion that comes with being exposed to such gruesome scenes.  The people of Libya wanted justice, and it was delivered by the pistol of a soldier instead of the gavel of a judge in The Hague.  Seen in the broader picture though, the way Gaddafi was killed and the way he is on display to the masses now has some very serious implications in terms of international politics.  The extrajudicial killing of the former leader of Libya means that the new Libyan Republic will be born out of blood with a stained human rights record.  With the increased emphasis of the importance of human rights by developed states, it is crucial for states like Libya to have a spotless human rights record in order to start off on good terms with strong economic powers in the area (i.e. the member-states of the EU).  The killing of Gaddafi also takes away from the legitimacy of the new government which can now be hardly seen as a regime that treats all equal, even bigger than life leaders.  The display of Gaddafi’s body is furthermore against Islamic burial tradition which calls upon the burial of a deceased Muslim to take place as soon as possible.  The new regime might very well take criticism for exposing the dead body of a Muslim for such a long time from fellow Arab states.  Regardless, the people of Libya are celebrating that after eight months they have finally gained their complete independence.

Negotiating with the Bad Guys

I was reading through last week’s Economist today and came across an article that reminded my of a paper I wrote for my Terrorism in the Modern World class last year.  The article I read dealt with the fact that it might be in the interest for Western powers to negotiate with dominant powers in this Eastern African country, even if those dominant powers have fundamentalist tendencies like the terrorist group Al-Shabaab.  I figured I would publish my paper so you can get a better idea of how Al-Shabaab became to be and why I agree so much with the Economist’s point of view.  A link to the paper is added at the end of this post.  Please excuse the formatting.  I am still trying to find a website with which I can upload and display my papers properly (so please let me know if you know one!)  Here is also a link that gives you a little visual on how things are looking on the ground in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia.

The Birth and Annals of a Terrorist Organization: Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen

Other Links

Heir to Saudi Arabia throne dies

High turn out as Tunisia's historic poll ends

Obama: Full Iraq withdrawal by Christmas

Dozens die as strong quake rocks eastern Turkey

Tunisians flock to voting stations for first taste of democracy in 50 years

A Change in the Balance of Power

Welcome (back) to the second edition of my little blog.  I hope you were all able to attend a memorial service today to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the event that transformed the world.  I was lucky to attend a ceremony at my college campus in which individuals shared their story of 9/11.  It was enlightening to hear some of the stories from those that were actually residing in the area, since it adds another layer of emotion and compassion to this already moving event.  Never forget!

Over the past seven days there have been some major developments in the region.  First off, I am going to look into the shifting balance of power in the region between Egypt, Israel, and Turkey, a topic that I have been following very closely as it is sure to transform regional politics tremendously for the coming years.  Following that I will briefly look into developments in Egypt proper, Libya, and Syria.  And always make sure to look at the end of my posts for the articles of the week that I think deserve some particular attention.

Egypt, Turkey, and Israel: Redefining the Balance of Power in the Region

This week we saw a further threat to regional peace as protesters in the Egyptian capital stormed the Israeli embassy to protest the killing of Egyptian border guards by Israeli forces.  The Israeli ambassador was withdrawn from the country, but Israel vowed to restore diplomatic ties with Cairo as soon as the safety of the embassy personnel could be guaranteed.  Protesters demands included the end of gas exports to the Jewish State.  This is something Israel can ill afford as it imports about 40 percent of its gas from Egypt. 

On the Turkish side of what appears to be the further regional isolation of Israel, we were able to see more restrictions and conditions put upon any further relations between the two states.  Besides expelling the Israeli ambassador and cutting any military trade ties, Turkey also proclaimed that Israel had been ‘disloyal’ to defense contracts that have been hailed as a sign of regional integration in the past.  Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey also said that in the future any Turkish vessel in international waters would be protected by the Turkish Navy.  This could be a possible point of friction between the militaries of the two countries, if there ever is another aid flotilla under the Turkish flag going in the direction of Gaza.

What will be important to look out for in the upcoming week is tomorrow’s visit of PM Erdogan to Cairo.  If he is interested in the further isolation of Israel, he could strike a deal using financial tools to influence Egypt into further straining its ties with Tel Aviv.  Another point of concern for Israel is also a possible visit by PM Erdogan to the Gaza strip, where he would surely receive a hero’s welcome by the people whose cause he has been heralding on the international stage.

Turkey really seems to have the initiative right now and in my opinion it is scary to imagine the possible outcomes if Turkey continues to be as direct with Israel as it has been.  Nonetheless, it was to be expected that at some point one of the states in the region would challenge Israel.  Yet, Turkey would have probably been the last state from which I would have predicted such drastic moves.

Egypt: The Ongoing Protest

Tahrir Square in Cairo has seen an uncountable number of protests ever since February.  This week, the protesters in the square were (once again) demanding that the military hold its promises of reform, and that there be a detailed timetable established that outlines the steps to be taken towards a transition from military to civilian rule.  This is of particular interest to those in Egypt which do not belong to or follow the Muslim Brotherhood.  One of the major concerns of other parties in the country has been, that the interim period between Mubarak and a new regime will be too short to allow other political parties besides the Brotherhood to form.  If the military decides to keep the interim period short and sweet, it would definitely play into the hands of the Islamic party.

Libya: Looking for Refuge and Justice

As the NTC is already talking about forming the first transition government, the question of where Gaddafi and his family have disappeared to still remains.  Just yesterday, Gaddafi’s son Saadi turned up in Niger, confirming possible fears that the dictator, wanted by the ICC might decide to escape to either Niger or Burkina Faso deeper into the African continent.  The fact that Niger has trouble securing its long border because of a lack of resources only makes Gaddafi’s escape through the country more likely.  Meanwhile at home in Libya, the NTC has to make sure that those innocent of aiding Gaddafi in his last ditch effort to hold onto the country are not targeted because of the color of their skin.  Many of the mercenaries hired by Gaddafi were of African origin.  About 5000 Africans have been rounded up in Tripoli alone and the question remains whether it is possible to give a fair trial and to determine if those incarcerated are actually guilty or only held for the color of their skin.

Syria: Indicators of Change

In the ongoing protests in Syria, there finally seems to be some minor indicators that after six months the support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime is waning.  There have been some defections from the Syrian army over refusal to shoot protesters, and Iran, a long time ally of al-Assad, has been calling for talks between the protesters and the regime.  If this is the start of more drastic change remains to be seen, but time definitely seems to be in favor of the people of Syria who have been waiting for their political freedoms for so long.

Other Links

The Impact of Al-Qaeda 

Are Turkey and Israel on a collision course?

The Economist, September 13th, 2001

Attack on Israeli Embassy in Cairo

The Precision of NATO airstrikes

If you have any comments, please post them below or send me an email to the address in my profile.  Stay tuned and see you next Monday.

The week of falling dictators, rising Prime Ministers, and defiant Presidents.

How many weeks of the year do you see a 42-year old dictatorship toppled?  Even though not all events this week were as positive, I must still say that this is a great week to start blogging about such a dynamic region of the world.  Here is a run-down of what’s new this week by country.  And make sure to read through this post (or at least scroll down to the bottom) as I will add always try to add a humorous touch to an otherwise too serious blog with links to some of the more ridiculous reports I was able to find throughout the week.  In that section you will also find links to those articles that I found particularly interesting, but that did not fit in any of my country/topic groups.

Libya: How much news about one country can you handle?

With Gaddafi on the verge of being toppled, newspapers and magazines have been filled with reports about the many aspects that entail the downfall of a regime that lasted close to half a century.  How much news about one country can you really read before your mind stops drifting?  Here is what you need to know.

Now that Gaddafi has been ousted by the National Transitional Council (NTC) it is only a matter of time until he turns up in some kind of hole similar to the one Saddam Hussein used in 2003.  Hopefully, this will be the only overlap between Iraq and Libya as I will discuss later.  The NTC is now faced with a tremendous task.  Will it be able to stay united as a front that can lead the people of Libya to a democratic and more importantly open society? 

The failures of Iraq and Afghanistan immediately come to mind.  The page in the newspaper covering yet another act of terrorism and violence by militant Islamic organizations has sadly become about as interesting as the daily weather forecast.  Yet, can we expect for Libya to turn into another failed attempt of regime change?  Many indicators point against it.  As pointed out by Al-Jazeera, Libya actually appears to start of from a far better position.  With little to no debt outstanding and no existing (repressive) political institutions like the ones present in Egypt right after the revolution there, the NTC will be able to present change far quicker thanks to incoming oil revenues and the absence of political institutions that would need to reformed.  French and British oil companies are surely going to profit, no matter which way Libya turns politically, as a little thank you for providing the NTC forces with a UN sanctioned air force through NATO.

Externally, Libya appears to be well placed, but what about internal issues?  Iraq and Afghanistan both feature a very heterogeneous population as opposed to Libya.  Mostly populated by Sunni Muslims, a danger Libya might face is tribal clashes over the power vacuum that might follow, if the transition is carried out without taking into consideration Libya’s very detailed tribal culture. 

Remember that call for donations for the ongoing famine in the Horn of Africa?  Somalia had a government once too, even though it might have been twenty years since that was the case.  That government was brought down by tribal clashes which were fought because the Somali tribes could not agree on how to fill the political vacuum left behind by the former dictator of Somalia, Siad Barre.  Will Libya follow the example of infighting that has been taking place in Somalia in the past two decades?  I most certainly do not hope so.

As much as it pains me to look at Libya through the rather over-used lens of post-9/11 security interests, it is necessary to consider Libya as a safe heaven for militant Islamist organizations like Al-Qaeda.  According to Deutsche Welle the threat emanating from Libyan, militant Islamists remains minimal.  There is a small core group of militant Islamists, called the Salafis, which embrace a purer and more archaic Islam.  Yet, 600 Salafis in a country of 6.5 million are not going to cause any tremendous change to a political structure.  And after all every country has its religious extremists.  The key is to keep arms out of their hands, which should prove difficult given the amount of weapons that have been circulating in Libya in the past months.

A final point that I wanted to stress is (yet again) the difficult integration that the NTC will have to deal with once peace is restored to the country.  It will be crucial to not only find a durable solution to any kind of tribal clashes that might break out, but it will also be crucial to include such minority groups politically that have previously been repressed (i.e. the Berber ethnic group), and to normalize ties with Libya’s African neighbors which still have refused to recognize the NTC as Libya’s official representative.  This may prove extremely difficult given the fact that many of the mercenaries that fought in Gaddafi’s militia stem from the 54 member-states in the African Union (AU).

Turkey: A Rising Regional Player

Turkey probably wins the award for being the most politically direct state of the week.  Besides bombing ‘Kurdish rebels’ from the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in Northern Iraq (infringing on international, territorial borders), it has just severed its diplomatic ties with Israel.  No big deal.  The sudden deterioration of ties came with the release of a UN report that deemed Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip legal, but carried out with unreasonable force.  Turkey’s foreign minister, Mr. Ahmet Davutoglu, was swift to downgrade ties with Israel after the country’s regime refused to apologize for the bloody Gaza flotilla raid in 2010.  Mr Davutoglu, further said that Turkey will take Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the legality of the blockade on the Gaza Strip.

A question that remains in my head is how far Turkey under Prime Minister Erdogan can keep playing both the pro-Western and pro-Palestinian side?  If it manages to do both however, become a member of the European Union (EU), and herald the cause of the Palestinian s successfully, it will become one of the leading regional powers in the MENA.

Syria: The next Libya?

The Economist had a great article discussing why Syrian protesters are willing to go out on the streets against their government despite the continued repression against them.  The answer is quite simple: dignity.  By killing more and more of Syrian citizens, President Bashar al-Assad slowly digs him-self a deeper and deeper grave.  Every Syrian that dies by the hands of his forces will only increase the feeling of robbed dignity experienced by the people in the streets.  Also, how much legitimacy does a government have that even right after the celebration of the end of the holy month Ramadan goes out and kills people? 

There is hope for the Syrian people though, as the EU has finally decided to impose sanctions on Syrian oil imports.  The realists among us might argue: “well, but economic sanctions are no hard solution to government repression.”  And yes, they might be right, if the EU member states did not buy up 95% of Syrian oil exports.  Syrian’s are faithful that this new sanction will slowly drive President al-Assad into dire financial straights, and for the sake of a freer and more importantly less bloody Syria, I hope so too.

Other Links

• American college kid joins Libya rebels for 'vacation'
• Chinese-made Qur'ans full of errors, warns Iranian official 
• Dutch gameshow for failed asylum seekers 
• Will Sarkozy get a statue in Tripoli?

And with these few links I say Good bye and until next week.  Please make sure to stop in next Monday for my next update on happenings in MENA.  I will try to be a little more detailed next week.  It’s almost 3am here and moving back to college has kind of kept me from writing a whole ton.  Please leave any comments either here on my blog or send me an email to the address listed in my profile!