Monday, November 14, 2011

Why Iran Is going for Nukes and Why Regional Exclusion matters

 “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won’t cross the street to vote in a national election.” – American saying.

This week was national Election Day, and unfortunately as usual the voter turnout was most likely less than 50% of the voting-eligible population.  Judging from the above saying you can probably see how I feel about the low voter turnout.  As a citizen of Germany, the right to vote was apparently brought back to my fellow countrymen and me by the American forces that defeated the fascist Third Reich.  Imagine how it must feel to see that democracy lacks the active support of the majority of American people.  To vote on the future of the most powerful nation of the world is a privilege that I would love to have.  So do your nation (and me) a favor and use the privilege that was given to you by our troops.  On that note, I hope you thanked a veteran on Veterans Day!
This week I will discuss how a nuclear Iran would impact the United States and Iran’s neighbors, and the fact that Syrian was suspended from the Arab League and what this might mean for the future of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime.

What a Nuclear Iran means to US

With the release of the recent IAEA report about Iran’s nuclear program it now seems clear and obvious that Iran is trying to acquire a nuclear warhead.  Understandably, Israel and other countries in the region now fear that a Shiite Iran, already standing out as stranger to its mostly Sunni neighbors, will show no remorse using a nuclear warhead. 
I think it is time for Israel and the United States to face the fact that Iran will inevitably possess nukes.  Does that make it right?  Of course not.  Yet, Iran would not be the first country to acquire nuclear warheads if one is to believe the rumors about the Israeli arsenal of weapons.  A nuclear Iran would ensure that Israel will be more considerate before striking targets outside of its borders (especially Hezbollah in southern Lebanon), since a nuclear Iran could threaten to respond disproportionally with a nuclear warhead.  The most important thing to consider now is not how to keep Iran from going nuclear, but how to make Iran fit into regional politics as a nuclear power while making sure that no one else tries to go down the nuclear road.  Other measures besides the relatively weak sanctions program of the UN will have to be considered to ensure that no one else gains the potential to annihilate human life so effectively.

Can intervention by a regional body lead to the end of a regime? (I’m sure Gaddafi would think so.)

Syria is set to be suspended from the Arab League on Wednesday after a deal that was struck between the League and Syria did not show the desired effects of ending the bloodshed perpetrated by the Syrian regime against its own people.  Syria promptly called for an emergency meeting before the suspension takes effect so that the case can be reviewed.
If the Syrian regime did not know that full membership in the Arab League mattered to its continued survival, it would not try to petition the Arab League’s decision to suspend it from the organization.  Besides another victory for the international system for being so influential on states, this shows us that Syria has just entered the murky waters that Libya was in about half a year ago.  Even though the League does not support a no-fly zone like the one that contributed to Gaddafi’s downfall, the suspension adds more pressure to Syria and makes it an even bigger outcast than it already is.  The suspension was followed by raids from Syrian civilians on the embassies of the countries that voted in favor of the suspension.  If that does not show what kind of actions the Syrian state supports than I do not know what does.

Other Links
Bahrain breaks up terror cell - state media
Iran explosion at Revolutionary Guards military base
US defense chief Panetta warns against Iran strike
Egypt closes Pyramid amid 11/11/11 rumours
In Pictures: The world in 24 hours

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