The world of international studies is filled with indexes that attempt to give those unfamiliar with IR lingo a chance to understand in what direction certain countries or the planet as a whole are moving in terms of human development, equality, corruption, free press, etc. The beauty of it all is of course that a numbered index can be abused to misrepresent what is actually happening. The World Bank is probably case in point by trying to prove oh so hard that inequality is actually decreasing while in reality everyone (even us in the developed world) can witness an increase in inequality. Anyways, the point I am trying to make here is that out of all the indexes I think one of the most interesting ones focuses on the number of times the word “recession” is used in the media. If there is a correlation between “recession” and whether we find ourselves in a recession, shouldn’t there be a correlation between how many times Iran is mentioned across multiple news networks and how likely it is that the conflict with Iran will escalate? I don’t know, just a thought because right now all I can see across the board is Iran, Iran, Iran.
That being said, this week will focus on (of course) Iran and on a review of the most important stories from 2011. Happy New Years!!!
And another step closer
The semi-state controlled Fars News agency of Iran announced the past week that Iran had successfully tested mid-range surface-to-air missiles. The test marks a milestone in Tehran’s quest for long-range missile capabilities to defend itself against what it deems US and Israeli aggression. Ironically, the government denied the tests but issued a statement in which it stated that all kinds of missiles will be tested during the ten days of military exercises taking place in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the US would succeed in pushing more sanctions against Iran’s oil and financial industries.
Okay how funny is it that an agency that is state influenced publishes something that goes strictly against the message the state is trying to send. If that is not a sign of dysfunction in the Iranian propaganda machine then I don’t know what is. On a more serious note it is concerning that Iran has developed mid-range capabilities. Maybe President Bush was right to push so adamantly for a missile defense shield in the Czech Republic and Poland. Of greater concern will be how to cope with an Iran that could close down the Strait of Hormuz and back up that blockade with a nuclear arsenal. And this is not another case of a North Korean style rogue state. Iran has got the oil and it has the tools to drive oil prices through the roof. I am sure someone is willing to trade Iranian oil despite any kind of UN sanctions especially if Iran drives up the oil prices by closing the Strait (which sees 20% of world oil demand travel through it). It will reach the point where there will be no other choice but to either force regime change in Tehran or to accept Iran for what it is and engage in open talks. Pick your poison.
The highlights of 2011
I really recommend that all watch this short video (2:25) that shows the highlights of 2011. The Times magazine was right to make “The Protester” the person of the year. Tunisia not only sparked a revolution that swept through the Middle East and North Africa, but it also encouraged the Occupy protests around the world and some of the violence that took place in London and is still taking place in Athens over austerity measures.
I also want to take a second to commemorate the victims of the shootings in Norway. Every time I see footage of that attack chills go down my spine. To pick up the uniform of a policeman and to slaughter eighty individuals, most of them children, is such a personal and heinous crime that it must never be forgotten. Norway lost its status as one of the most peaceful places in the world this year. Shame on you Anders Breivik..
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