A week full of halves

And here we go.  The last semester of my college career has finally started and I couldn’t ask for better conditions!  Relatively easy classes and an outstanding line-up in terms of jobs really leaves me optimistic for the months to come.  Here is to the Spring 2012 semester.  Let’s finish of strong with a 4.0!

This week: the difficulty of finishing of a revolution and what to expect from an Egyptian parliament under Brotherhood rule.

A job halfway done

As Libya moves on into a future without Gaddafi, it has to face what too many other countries after a revolution already have: the difficulties of making the succeeding regime seem legitimate in the eyes of the revolutionaries.  The attacks on the offices of the transitional government earlier this week give testimony to that.  While Libya is fighting with itself to restore order (and put all those loose weapons back into their lockers) it has difficulty upholding international treaties that the previous regime had signed.  The due date for complete eradication of chemical weapons in Libya by April 29^th, 2012, as part of global initiative to eliminate chemical weapons will not be kept by Libya due to the political turmoil in the country.

The problem is not starting the revolution, but ending it.  Yes, everyone might agree that it is time to pick up arms and change the status quo, but the ideal state that is envisioned by each individual that takes part in a revolution is very different.  How to appease the people, especially those that filled the ranks of the militias that drove Gaddafi’s regime to ruin?  The attacks on the transitional government’s offices took place because of the continued presence of Gaddafi’s cronies in the current regime.  Take them out and only the most radical will be left to fend for their fringe political ideals.  Then maybe Libya can face more urgent problems, like the eradication of chemical weapons in a country that has seen a surge in violence due to the lax culture surrounding weapons and violence that follows a revolution.

Into a brighter future?

The final results of the parliamentary elections in Egypt are finally in and the Muslim Brotherhood (to the dismay of many Israelis and Islamophobists) will provide 47% of the 508 member strong lower house of parliament.  Surprisingly, only 54% of all those eligible to vote showed at the polls.  The Brotherhood was quick to assure that the new parliament would be “reconciliatory.”

 I hope that the Muslim Brotherhood will hold its promise of forming a coalition with a secular party to gain the majority in parliament to nominate a prime minister.  What I find most surprising from all of this is the low voter turnout.  Only 54% showed up at the polls.  While this number is still far higher than the average voter turn out in the United States, it should come as a surprise that a country that had been abused for decades by an authoritarian regime does not chose to literally storm the polls at the first opportunity to vote in a free and fair election.  I guess some of the critics must be right.  Maybe the people of Egypt are not ready for a democracy after all.

Other Links

Yemen’s President Saleh ‘leaves country’ for treatment

Hamas political chief to step down

The week in pictures

Murder in Tehran

Beleaguered but still unbowed

Iran and its lackeys

Merry Christmas to you all!  Hope you had a great time opening presents and sitting around the dinner table with your families.  It’s really a great time of the year to catch up with people and to celebrate to have each other.  A shame that that this holiday has become so commercial.  I think the best gift I got/gave was to call my guest mother in Switzerland.  We were both so happy to hear from each other.  It should really be the small things in life that matter, not a new laptop or a new pair of shoes.  Who really cares if you can buy those same things at any other given point in the year?

This week I’m going to focus on two stories that weren’t really featured across all the new websites I use as sources here.  Even though they could be described as ‘fringe’ stories they are nonetheless important.  Both of the stories relate to (who would have guessed) Iran.

Appeasement

Iran will hold military exercises in international waters around the Strait of Hormuz to show its defense capabilities during a time in which it has received much criticism from around the world for its nuclear program.  With the US 5^th fleet based in the Persian Gulf which can only be accessed through the Strait of Hormuz the exercise can be seen as an act of defiance against US sanctions that aim to cripple the state of Iran and its Revolutionary Guards which have been directly linked to the nuclear program of the country.  To top everything off, the Strait of Hormuz sees a third of the worlds oil supply travel through it on a yearly basis.

I used to think that liking Ahmadinejad and Iran to Hitler and the Third Reich was a very morbid and stupid comparison.  The former had done nothing comparable to the latter (yet) and Iran certainly did not show the same behavior that Germany did during the mid-1930s.  Well, with the war games and military exercises that clearly seem to tell the US “hey, look at us, we don’t care about your griefing,” Iran has done the deed and shown the US the international “bring it on” on a whole other level.  Appeasement like it happened in the 1930s is not an option to the US and Israel.  Yet what are they going to do?  Maybe support domestic uprisings against the Ayatollah and his regime?  Or rather accept Iran for what it is and stop giving it the attention it clearly tries to get internationally?

Connecting the dots

The Lebanese-Canadian Bank has been linked to money laundering funds for Hezbollah.  Allegedly, the bank launders money that is earned from South American drug sales, blood diamonds, and used car sales that mostly go trough Africa to reach both the American and European markets.  The investigation by the United States started in 2006 after the Lebanon War that aimed to weaken Hezbollah’s influence in the border region.

This story is nothing but a wake-up call for those who believed that all the illegal activity that takes place around the globe is regional.  Illegal business, just like legal business, is very much globalized and has to care even less about regulations set by states due to its very nature.  The funding of radical organizations like Hezbollah is just another reason to put an end to the drug violence taking place in Middle and South America, and to ensure the blood diamonds are no longer bought by diamond traders that service the developed world.

Other Links

Baghdad blasts: Hashemi accuses government over attacks

Lockerbie bomber protests innocence in 'last' interview

Arab Spring quiz of the year 2011 (this one is impossible)

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh to go to US

A troubled farewell

Winning polls and digging holes

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!  As finals week starts moving closer, its crunch time to get all of my research papers done for the semester.  I think there is nothing more exciting than reading a good book about international politics that covers a currently important topic that usually gets little attention.  One of my International Studies professors recently recommended a book to me to get a better understanding about the topic that I chose for my Bachelor thesis: Islamist Organizations in Egypt.  The Struggle for Egypt by Steven A. Cook has been a great read so far and I have to recommend it to anyone seriously interested in what is happening in Egypt right now.  The book gives a great understanding about the frustration that the Egyptian people have had for the past century and why they have come to demand their political and economic freedoms now.

Keeping in line with my little book recommendation I will be talking about the upcoming elections in Egypt, and the decision that the parliament of Iran has just made (yes, they do have a parliament believe it or not).

Was it hijacked or does it just need time?

The revolution that ended in the resignation of Hosni Mubarak on February 11^th, 2011, finally shows some fruit.  The people of Egypt will go to the polls today to vote in the first round of elections for members of the 508-member strong lower house of the Egyptian parliament.  However, continues protests are troubling the piece and quiet that is required to hold ordered elections. Current head of state, Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, has warned the Egyptian public that if the elections fail due to the violence that has been happening in places like Tahrir Square, there would be dangerous hurdles in the future.  Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken a backseat in the protests taking place in Tahrir, anticipating winning at least 25% of seats in the upcoming elections.  The Brothers’ passiveness in the protests against the current military junta has been viewed negatively by the Egyptian people who fear that the current military regime might cling to power.  Yet, “who will benefit from all the chaos?” The Economist asks.  Unfortunately, it does not seem as if the protesters in the streets will, since old political parties like the Wafd Party, the Freedom and Justice Party, and the Al-Tagmmu Party are likely to win at the polls.  None of those parties really represent the protesters in the street.  For more information on the technicalities of the elections please check out a very informative chart that Al Jazeera Online has released here and for more information on the parties participating in the elections please check out BBCs website here.

Personally, I am hopeful that the elections will go off smoothly.  Even though the protesters might not be represented directly by any of the parties, to have an election at all is a start.  A routine for parliamentary democracy needs to be established as soon as possible so that the military leadership can be replaced by a civilian one.  Once the civilian leadership is established, a party that represents the unemployed youth of Egypt can be voted into place.  The one thing that should be made sure is that no party gets voted into place that has limits to democracy on its agenda.

Digging a deeper hole for itself

After further sanctions to be imposed by the United Kingdom on Iran, the Parliament of Iran has voted to downgrade diplomatic ties from ambassadorial level to the level of charge d’affairs.  The move comes after the announcement of the UK treasury that Britain would cut all financial ties to the Central Bank of Iran.  This comes as a reaction to the IAEA report that directly linked the Iranian Central Bank to the financing of the nuclear program of the Persian state.  87% of the members of parliament voted in favor for the bill and the affirmative vote would have been even stronger if measures against the UK would have included even more severe measures like the closure of the UK embassy in Tehran .

As mentioned in the article by The Guardian above, Iran is only putting itself into deeper isolation in the world of international politics.  It has really come to the point where there is no need for sanctions anymore, because Iran feels so alienated that it will put itself in the corner.  Has the sanctions regime reached its goal?  Iran is still going for the nuke so I guess not, but at least it has reached a stage where Iran is an active supporter of the sanctions levied against it.

Other Links

Iran arrests 12 'CIA spies' for targeting nuclear plans

Yemeni President Saleh signs deal on ceding power

Arab League approves Syria sanctions

Saudi police on high alert

Moderate Islamists eclipse closest rivals in Moroccan elections