Welcome (back) to the second edition of my little blog. I hope you were all able to attend a memorial service today to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the event that transformed the world. I was lucky to attend a ceremony at my college campus in which individuals shared their story of 9/11. It was enlightening to hear some of the stories from those that were actually residing in the area, since it adds another layer of emotion and compassion to this already moving event. Never forget!
Over the past seven days there have been some major developments in the region. First off, I am going to look into the shifting balance of power in the region between Egypt, Israel, and Turkey, a topic that I have been following very closely as it is sure to transform regional politics tremendously for the coming years. Following that I will briefly look into developments in Egypt proper, Libya, and Syria. And always make sure to look at the end of my posts for the articles of the week that I think deserve some particular attention.
Egypt, Turkey, and Israel: Redefining the Balance of Power in the Region
This week we saw a further threat to regional peace as protesters in the Egyptian capital stormed the Israeli embassy to protest the killing of Egyptian border guards by Israeli forces. The Israeli ambassador was withdrawn from the country, but Israel vowed to restore diplomatic ties with Cairo as soon as the safety of the embassy personnel could be guaranteed. Protesters demands included the end of gas exports to the Jewish State. This is something Israel can ill afford as it imports about 40 percent of its gas from Egypt.
On the Turkish side of what appears to be the further regional isolation of Israel, we were able to see more restrictions and conditions put upon any further relations between the two states. Besides expelling the Israeli ambassador and cutting any military trade ties, Turkey also proclaimed that Israel had been ‘disloyal’ to defense contracts that have been hailed as a sign of regional integration in the past. Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey also said that in the future any Turkish vessel in international waters would be protected by the Turkish Navy. This could be a possible point of friction between the militaries of the two countries, if there ever is another aid flotilla under the Turkish flag going in the direction of Gaza.
What will be important to look out for in the upcoming week is tomorrow’s visit of PM Erdogan to Cairo. If he is interested in the further isolation of Israel, he could strike a deal using financial tools to influence Egypt into further straining its ties with Tel Aviv. Another point of concern for Israel is also a possible visit by PM Erdogan to the Gaza strip, where he would surely receive a hero’s welcome by the people whose cause he has been heralding on the international stage.
Turkey really seems to have the initiative right now and in my opinion it is scary to imagine the possible outcomes if Turkey continues to be as direct with Israel as it has been. Nonetheless, it was to be expected that at some point one of the states in the region would challenge Israel. Yet, Turkey would have probably been the last state from which I would have predicted such drastic moves.
Egypt: The Ongoing Protest
Tahrir Square in Cairo has seen an uncountable number of protests ever since February. This week, the protesters in the square were (once again) demanding that the military hold its promises of reform, and that there be a detailed timetable established that outlines the steps to be taken towards a transition from military to civilian rule. This is of particular interest to those in Egypt which do not belong to or follow the Muslim Brotherhood. One of the major concerns of other parties in the country has been, that the interim period between Mubarak and a new regime will be too short to allow other political parties besides the Brotherhood to form. If the military decides to keep the interim period short and sweet, it would definitely play into the hands of the Islamic party.
Libya: Looking for Refuge and Justice
As the NTC is already talking about forming the first transition government, the question of where Gaddafi and his family have disappeared to still remains. Just yesterday, Gaddafi’s son Saadi turned up in Niger, confirming possible fears that the dictator, wanted by the ICC might decide to escape to either Niger or Burkina Faso deeper into the African continent. The fact that Niger has trouble securing its long border because of a lack of resources only makes Gaddafi’s escape through the country more likely. Meanwhile at home in Libya, the NTC has to make sure that those innocent of aiding Gaddafi in his last ditch effort to hold onto the country are not targeted because of the color of their skin. Many of the mercenaries hired by Gaddafi were of African origin. About 5000 Africans have been rounded up in Tripoli alone and the question remains whether it is possible to give a fair trial and to determine if those incarcerated are actually guilty or only held for the color of their skin.
Syria: Indicators of Change
In the ongoing protests in Syria, there finally seems to be some minor indicators that after six months the support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime is waning. There have been some defections from the Syrian army over refusal to shoot protesters, and Iran, a long time ally of al-Assad, has been calling for talks between the protesters and the regime. If this is the start of more drastic change remains to be seen, but time definitely seems to be in favor of the people of Syria who have been waiting for their political freedoms for so long.
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