Happy Snowoween? The northeast of the United States just saw several inches of snow and Halloween has not even passed yet. Never in my life have I seen snow fall this early in the year. Along with the snow that fell came the many arguments for the fact that global warming is true. Facebook exploded with comments about the early snow and global warming. My favorite was: “I told you so. #AlGore.” because it exactly summarizes what my view on this topic is. While I might not be greatly engaged with the environmental scene, I do believe that if we do not consciously reduce our carbon output we will slowly but surely destroy the planet we live on and with it the future of humanity. It makes me proud to see that my country of birth, Germany, is the global leader in countering current carbon dioxide levels, but it upsets me to see that so little is done by other states around the world. If you think that global warming is a myth, then chances are that you also have a more realistic view on politics in the world. There is a very easy way to convince you to reduce the use of carbon based fuels that is tied to the region that this blog is about. The United States and other western powers are prone to being blackmailed by such countries as Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia as long as we keep relying on their oil resources. If we want to see our countries free from foreign influence we will have to start finding alternative energies that can be produced at home and not abroad. Strategies like these will ensure that the United States and other western powers will remain crucial international players in the coming decade.
This week I will focus on Syria’s continued crackdown on its population, and on the justice that Saif al-Islam, Gaddafi’s son, can expect when he is captured.
Syria: A repeat of Libya or another Afghanistan?
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has warned the West that if it was to intervene in the country it would cause an earthquake in the region. He further stated that if the West was to intervene, another Afghanistan would be born out of the ruins of the Syrian regime. After seven months of protests the UN estimates that 3000 have died in the mostly non-violent protests. After the bloodiest clashes to date on Saturday, the Arab League finally issued a statement issuing its concerns about the continued killing of Syrian civilians. Furthermore, a new group called the Free Syrian Army has formed. The group is made up of defectors from the Syrian army and is based out of the Turkish-Syrian border region. They could be the start of the first coordinated violent response to the continued crackdown by President al-Assad’s forces. There have been calls for international intervention, but so far nothing has happened due to the veto of China and Russia in the Security Council about anything that has to do with Syria.
It is time for the international community to act and help the Syrian people to depose of their leader. Even if he had some kind of legitimacy before the uprising, he definitely eroded the last bit of it when he decided to roll out his tanks against his own people. The rhetoric that Assad uses, reminds one of the same kind of talk that Gaddafi as his power started to wane. Gaddafi talked about the “Crusaders” who had come to take Libya like in ancient times. He attempted to mobilize his people. Assad on the other hand uses the comparison to Afghanistan in order to deter foreign forces from intervening. Why does he do this? Because he knows that his own people do not stand behind him since he is the minority Shia ruler of a mostly Sunni country. Can Russia and China really stand behind a leader that is not recognized as legitimate by his own people? I understand that these two countries want to preserve their strong ties with the Syrian state, but in the long-run they will fail in accomplishing their goal because the victory of the people of Syria is inevitable. When they come to power they will make sure to reconsider ties with those who spoke out against them during their revolution. My hopes now lie with the Free Syrian Army which will hopefully gain momentum as the crackdown by Syrian forces grows more intense.
Libya: Between International and Domestic Justice
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son and heir apparent to Gaddafi’s Libya, was called "the last piece” in bringing Gaddafi’s Libya to an end by Colonel Ahmed Bani, the military spokesman for Libya’s interim government. The ICC has reported that Saif has been in contact with it through intermediaries and that he wanted to prove his innocence so that the court would withdraw the warrant that was issued on him. Meanwhile, the interim government has voiced its desire to give Saif a trial in Libya despite the warrant on his head by the ICC. Despite the legal debacle about “the last piece” Libya seems to be well on its way towards a more liberal political system and the countries oil production is recovering far faster than the one in Iraq did after the Second Gulf War.
Despite the fact that Libya is not a member of the ICC, I would like to make an argument about the appropriateness of the ICC to intervene in cases of internal regime change. Should the ICC in a case like Libya still have the right to prosecute criminals associated with the former regime over the new regime that more accurately presents the will of the people? Given the cruel justice that Saif’s father received the answer might be no, but in all honesty I think that in this case the state should be allowed to exercise its sovereignty despite the commendable goals that the ICC has. Libya could prove that it has a judicial system that is just and respectful by putting Saif on trial. This would help to lessen the impact that Gaddafi’s killing has had on the perception of Libya abroad (as discussed last week). And by the way, do you seriously think that Saif has any desire to proof his innocence to a relatively weak court that issued a warrant on him and his father? I think it more likely that he will escape Libya (if he hasn’t yet) and search refuge somewhere where the ICC will never get its hands on him. Hopefully, not too much efforts will be wasted on finding Saif as Libya should start looking towards the future. There is no point in dwelling about the past too much.
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