A week full of halves

And here we go.  The last semester of my college career has finally started and I couldn’t ask for better conditions!  Relatively easy classes and an outstanding line-up in terms of jobs really leaves me optimistic for the months to come.  Here is to the Spring 2012 semester.  Let’s finish of strong with a 4.0!

This week: the difficulty of finishing of a revolution and what to expect from an Egyptian parliament under Brotherhood rule.

A job halfway done

As Libya moves on into a future without Gaddafi, it has to face what too many other countries after a revolution already have: the difficulties of making the succeeding regime seem legitimate in the eyes of the revolutionaries.  The attacks on the offices of the transitional government earlier this week give testimony to that.  While Libya is fighting with itself to restore order (and put all those loose weapons back into their lockers) it has difficulty upholding international treaties that the previous regime had signed.  The due date for complete eradication of chemical weapons in Libya by April 29^th, 2012, as part of global initiative to eliminate chemical weapons will not be kept by Libya due to the political turmoil in the country.

The problem is not starting the revolution, but ending it.  Yes, everyone might agree that it is time to pick up arms and change the status quo, but the ideal state that is envisioned by each individual that takes part in a revolution is very different.  How to appease the people, especially those that filled the ranks of the militias that drove Gaddafi’s regime to ruin?  The attacks on the transitional government’s offices took place because of the continued presence of Gaddafi’s cronies in the current regime.  Take them out and only the most radical will be left to fend for their fringe political ideals.  Then maybe Libya can face more urgent problems, like the eradication of chemical weapons in a country that has seen a surge in violence due to the lax culture surrounding weapons and violence that follows a revolution.

Into a brighter future?

The final results of the parliamentary elections in Egypt are finally in and the Muslim Brotherhood (to the dismay of many Israelis and Islamophobists) will provide 47% of the 508 member strong lower house of parliament.  Surprisingly, only 54% of all those eligible to vote showed at the polls.  The Brotherhood was quick to assure that the new parliament would be “reconciliatory.”

 I hope that the Muslim Brotherhood will hold its promise of forming a coalition with a secular party to gain the majority in parliament to nominate a prime minister.  What I find most surprising from all of this is the low voter turnout.  Only 54% showed up at the polls.  While this number is still far higher than the average voter turn out in the United States, it should come as a surprise that a country that had been abused for decades by an authoritarian regime does not chose to literally storm the polls at the first opportunity to vote in a free and fair election.  I guess some of the critics must be right.  Maybe the people of Egypt are not ready for a democracy after all.

Other Links

Yemen’s President Saleh ‘leaves country’ for treatment

Hamas political chief to step down

The week in pictures

Murder in Tehran

Beleaguered but still unbowed

Defensive Rhetoric and why the International Criminal Court should sometime reconsider its jurisdiction

Happy Snowoween?  The northeast of the United States just saw several inches of snow and Halloween has not even passed yet.  Never in my life have I seen snow fall this early in the year.  Along with the snow that fell came the many arguments for the fact that global warming is true.  Facebook exploded with comments about the early snow and global warming.  My favorite was: “I told you so. #AlGore.” because it exactly summarizes what my view on this topic is.  While I might not be greatly engaged with the environmental scene, I do believe that if we do not consciously reduce our carbon output we will slowly but surely destroy the planet we live on and with it the future of humanity.  It makes me proud to see that my country of birth, Germany, is the global leader in countering current carbon dioxide levels, but it upsets me to see that so little is done by other states around the world.  If you think that global warming is a myth, then chances are that you also have a more realistic view on politics in the world.  There is a very easy way to convince you to reduce the use of carbon based fuels that is tied to the region that this blog is about.  The United States and other western powers are prone to being blackmailed by such countries as Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia as long as we keep relying on their oil resources.  If we want to see our countries free from foreign influence we will have to start finding alternative energies that can be produced at home and not abroad.  Strategies like these will ensure that the United States and other western powers will remain crucial international players in the coming decade.

This week I will focus on Syria’s continued crackdown on its population, and on the justice that Saif al-Islam, Gaddafi’s son, can expect when he is captured.

Syria: A repeat of Libya or another Afghanistan?

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has warned the West that if it was to intervene in the country it would cause an earthquake in the region.  He further stated that if the West was to intervene, another Afghanistan would be born out of the ruins of the Syrian regime. After seven months of protests the UN estimates that 3000 have died in the mostly non-violent protests.  After the bloodiest clashes to date on Saturday, the Arab League finally issued a statement issuing its concerns about the continued killing of Syrian civilians.  Furthermore, a new group called the Free Syrian Army has formed.  The group is made up of defectors from the Syrian army and is based out of the Turkish-Syrian border region.  They could be the start of the first coordinated violent response to the continued crackdown by President al-Assad’s forces.  There have been calls for international intervention, but so far nothing has happened due to the veto of China and Russia in the Security Council about anything that has to do with Syria.

It is time for the international community to act and help the Syrian people to depose of their leader.  Even if he had some kind of legitimacy before the uprising, he definitely eroded the last bit of it when he decided to roll out his tanks against his own people.  The rhetoric that Assad uses, reminds one of the same kind of talk that Gaddafi as his power started to wane.  Gaddafi talked about the “Crusaders” who had come to take Libya like in ancient times.  He attempted to mobilize his people.  Assad on the other hand uses the comparison to Afghanistan in order to deter foreign forces from intervening.  Why does he do this?  Because he knows that his own people do not stand behind him since he is the minority Shia ruler of a mostly Sunni country.  Can Russia and China really stand behind a leader that is not recognized as legitimate by his own people?  I understand that these two countries want to preserve their strong ties with the Syrian state, but in the long-run they will fail in accomplishing their goal because the victory of the people of Syria is inevitable.  When they come to power they will make sure to reconsider ties with those who spoke out against them during their revolution.  My hopes now lie with the Free Syrian Army which will hopefully gain momentum as the crackdown by Syrian forces grows more intense.

Libya: Between International and Domestic Justice

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son and heir apparent to Gaddafi’s Libya, was called "the last piece” in bringing Gaddafi’s Libya to an end by Colonel Ahmed Bani, the military spokesman for Libya’s interim government.  The ICC has reported that Saif has been in contact with it through intermediaries and that he wanted to prove his innocence so that the court would withdraw the warrant that was issued on him.  Meanwhile, the interim government has voiced its desire to give Saif a trial in Libya despite the warrant on his head by the ICC.  Despite the legal debacle about “the last piece” Libya seems to be well on its way towards a more liberal political system and the countries oil production is recovering far faster than the one in Iraq did after the Second Gulf War.

Despite the fact that Libya is not a member of the ICC, I would like to make an argument about the appropriateness of the ICC to intervene in cases of internal regime change.  Should the ICC in a case like Libya still have the right to prosecute criminals associated with the former regime over the new regime that more accurately presents the will of the people?  Given the cruel justice that Saif’s father received the answer might be no, but in all honesty I think that in this case the state should be allowed to exercise its sovereignty despite the commendable goals that the ICC has.  Libya could prove that it has a judicial system that is just and respectful by putting Saif on trial.  This would help to lessen the impact that Gaddafi’s killing has had on the perception of Libya abroad (as discussed last week).  And by the way, do you seriously think that Saif has any desire to proof his innocence to a relatively weak court that issued a warrant on him and his father?  I think it more likely that he will escape Libya (if he hasn’t yet) and search refuge somewhere where the ICC will never get its hands on him.  Hopefully, not too much efforts will be wasted on finding Saif as Libya should start looking towards the future.  There is no point in dwelling about the past too much.

Other Links

How Egypt's activists used social media and Cairo's taxis

Israeli air strikes kill nine militants

When Dad goes to war

Arab Spring activists win human rights award

Germany faces questions over alleged spy agency involvement in Libya

A Change in the Balance of Power

Welcome (back) to the second edition of my little blog.  I hope you were all able to attend a memorial service today to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the event that transformed the world.  I was lucky to attend a ceremony at my college campus in which individuals shared their story of 9/11.  It was enlightening to hear some of the stories from those that were actually residing in the area, since it adds another layer of emotion and compassion to this already moving event.  Never forget!

Over the past seven days there have been some major developments in the region.  First off, I am going to look into the shifting balance of power in the region between Egypt, Israel, and Turkey, a topic that I have been following very closely as it is sure to transform regional politics tremendously for the coming years.  Following that I will briefly look into developments in Egypt proper, Libya, and Syria.  And always make sure to look at the end of my posts for the articles of the week that I think deserve some particular attention.

Egypt, Turkey, and Israel: Redefining the Balance of Power in the Region

This week we saw a further threat to regional peace as protesters in the Egyptian capital stormed the Israeli embassy to protest the killing of Egyptian border guards by Israeli forces.  The Israeli ambassador was withdrawn from the country, but Israel vowed to restore diplomatic ties with Cairo as soon as the safety of the embassy personnel could be guaranteed.  Protesters demands included the end of gas exports to the Jewish State.  This is something Israel can ill afford as it imports about 40 percent of its gas from Egypt. 

On the Turkish side of what appears to be the further regional isolation of Israel, we were able to see more restrictions and conditions put upon any further relations between the two states.  Besides expelling the Israeli ambassador and cutting any military trade ties, Turkey also proclaimed that Israel had been ‘disloyal’ to defense contracts that have been hailed as a sign of regional integration in the past.  Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey also said that in the future any Turkish vessel in international waters would be protected by the Turkish Navy.  This could be a possible point of friction between the militaries of the two countries, if there ever is another aid flotilla under the Turkish flag going in the direction of Gaza.

What will be important to look out for in the upcoming week is tomorrow’s visit of PM Erdogan to Cairo.  If he is interested in the further isolation of Israel, he could strike a deal using financial tools to influence Egypt into further straining its ties with Tel Aviv.  Another point of concern for Israel is also a possible visit by PM Erdogan to the Gaza strip, where he would surely receive a hero’s welcome by the people whose cause he has been heralding on the international stage.

Turkey really seems to have the initiative right now and in my opinion it is scary to imagine the possible outcomes if Turkey continues to be as direct with Israel as it has been.  Nonetheless, it was to be expected that at some point one of the states in the region would challenge Israel.  Yet, Turkey would have probably been the last state from which I would have predicted such drastic moves.

Egypt: The Ongoing Protest

Tahrir Square in Cairo has seen an uncountable number of protests ever since February.  This week, the protesters in the square were (once again) demanding that the military hold its promises of reform, and that there be a detailed timetable established that outlines the steps to be taken towards a transition from military to civilian rule.  This is of particular interest to those in Egypt which do not belong to or follow the Muslim Brotherhood.  One of the major concerns of other parties in the country has been, that the interim period between Mubarak and a new regime will be too short to allow other political parties besides the Brotherhood to form.  If the military decides to keep the interim period short and sweet, it would definitely play into the hands of the Islamic party.

Libya: Looking for Refuge and Justice

As the NTC is already talking about forming the first transition government, the question of where Gaddafi and his family have disappeared to still remains.  Just yesterday, Gaddafi’s son Saadi turned up in Niger, confirming possible fears that the dictator, wanted by the ICC might decide to escape to either Niger or Burkina Faso deeper into the African continent.  The fact that Niger has trouble securing its long border because of a lack of resources only makes Gaddafi’s escape through the country more likely.  Meanwhile at home in Libya, the NTC has to make sure that those innocent of aiding Gaddafi in his last ditch effort to hold onto the country are not targeted because of the color of their skin.  Many of the mercenaries hired by Gaddafi were of African origin.  About 5000 Africans have been rounded up in Tripoli alone and the question remains whether it is possible to give a fair trial and to determine if those incarcerated are actually guilty or only held for the color of their skin.

Syria: Indicators of Change

In the ongoing protests in Syria, there finally seems to be some minor indicators that after six months the support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime is waning.  There have been some defections from the Syrian army over refusal to shoot protesters, and Iran, a long time ally of al-Assad, has been calling for talks between the protesters and the regime.  If this is the start of more drastic change remains to be seen, but time definitely seems to be in favor of the people of Syria who have been waiting for their political freedoms for so long.

Other Links

The Impact of Al-Qaeda 

Are Turkey and Israel on a collision course?

The Economist, September 13th, 2001

Attack on Israeli Embassy in Cairo

The Precision of NATO airstrikes

If you have any comments, please post them below or send me an email to the address in my profile.  Stay tuned and see you next Monday.