A Nod to the Past and Fear for the Future

Happy Thanksgiving!  Well, Happy Thanksgiving three days ahead of time.  I on my part can’t wait to stuff myself and spend the rest of the weekend digesting and complaining about what a bad idea it was to have eaten so much food.  More importantly though I hope that Black Friday will serve as a good indicator for an economy that is still on a recovery track.  Every dollar spent increases demand which helps create jobs.  So get out there and take advantage of those Black Friday Deals, because after all, “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

This week I will discuss the renewed protests that have sprung up in Egypt’s Tahrir Square this past weekend, and I will also give a little recap of how the revolution in Libya has affected neighboring countries.

1952/2011

Protesters are once again crowded into Tahrir Square, Cairo’s main thoroughfare, in a response to a draft document that gives guidelines for the constitution that is soon to be drafted.  Under the guidelines, the military as well as it’s budget would be exempt from civilian oversight.  Similar to the events that took place in New York City’s Zuccotti Park, Tahrir Square was cleared of all protesters and tents and banners were removed.  Yet, the methods by which protesters were evicted differed greatly, as military police used tear gas and rubber bullets (fired at head height) to disperse the crowd.  Concerns are now growing among many Egyptians that the current military council has hijacked the revolution, reminiscent of the coup d’etat of the Free Officer's Movement in 1952.

When Gamal Abdel Nasser and his Free Officers (among them Anwar al-Sadat and Hosni Mubarak) smashed the previous political system almost sixty years ago, they took it upon themselves to set the foundation for an Egyptian political system.  The system they hoped would pay less attention to their quasi-colonizer Britain, and more attention to the needs of the Egyptian people (especially peasants and other members of the lower class).  Their plans were noble and altruistic, but the system that they created paralyzed Egypt socio-economically and led to the circumcision of all political movements to empower the single most powerful party, the National Democratic Party (NDP).  What is different between 1952 and 2011 is that the military council in control now (Free Officers in 1952/Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in 2011) is that the Supreme Council (SCAF) does not have a foreign power that it can blame to gain widespread political support.  With the guidelines for the new constitution proposed by the SCAF it cannot be out ruled that the military is planning on an undemocratic future.  It is crucial to keep in mind that one of the conditions for a truly democratic political system is the control of civilians over the military.  This is something the council clearly opposes.  So once again, the people of Egypt have all the rights in the world to crowd Tahrir Square and protest for a future that allows the people of Egypt to be represented accurately.

Libya’s relations to the Desert

Now that Gaddafi is gone and Libya is on its way towards a new political reality, it has to be careful that it does not fall under the hands of an outside regional power like Saudi Arabia in the case of Lebanon, or Iran in the case of Iraq.  Qatar seems to be a good candidate for becoming a patron trying to influence domestic politics in Libya according to The Economist.  Meanwhile, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, was captured dressed up as a camel herder outside of Zintan where he will receive his trial.  The danger of high-tech weaponry escaping the country into Mali, Niger, and Chad is now present as Tuareg rebels, formerly supported by Gaddafi, take the guns they acquired during the revolution back to their countries of origin.  Guest workers from Niger are now also left without a source of income which will greatly reduce the amount of remittances sent back to this poor African state.

The phenomenon of having a patron state seems to become more and more common.  Not only does Libya seem to slowly fall into Qatar’s “sphere of influence,” but Turkey has also shown interests in establishing a no-fly zone over a Syria in turmoil (see the link in the “Other Link” section below).  Foreign influences in the region need to be contained as countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey become more and more dominant.  According to some international critics, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi should get a trial in The Hague.  As mentioned in an earlier article of mine, I do support that Saif should be tried in Libya.  Maybe he will get the death penalty, but if it helps forge a tighter knit Libyan society, then Saif might have to be the sacrifice to achieve that state of relative peacefulness.  It is sad how the African continent is often brushed aside in importance.  The impact of the Libyan revolution is indeed very grave and could lead to instability in Mali, Niger, and Chad since Tuareg rebels gained new arms in the Libyan conflict earlier this year.  Hopefully, Libya will play an equally as important role in employing guest workers as it did before the revolution and hopefully, it will do a better job than the previous regime in appeasing the Tuaregs and making them fit into their respective societies.

Other Links

Arab League rejects Syrian demand to change peace plan

Protesters storm Kuwaiti parliament

Iran 'influenced' Iraq over US troops' exit

Palestinian president to seek unity government with Hamas

Syrian rebels attack Ba'ath party offices in Damascus

A Change in the Balance of Power

Welcome (back) to the second edition of my little blog.  I hope you were all able to attend a memorial service today to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the event that transformed the world.  I was lucky to attend a ceremony at my college campus in which individuals shared their story of 9/11.  It was enlightening to hear some of the stories from those that were actually residing in the area, since it adds another layer of emotion and compassion to this already moving event.  Never forget!

Over the past seven days there have been some major developments in the region.  First off, I am going to look into the shifting balance of power in the region between Egypt, Israel, and Turkey, a topic that I have been following very closely as it is sure to transform regional politics tremendously for the coming years.  Following that I will briefly look into developments in Egypt proper, Libya, and Syria.  And always make sure to look at the end of my posts for the articles of the week that I think deserve some particular attention.

Egypt, Turkey, and Israel: Redefining the Balance of Power in the Region

This week we saw a further threat to regional peace as protesters in the Egyptian capital stormed the Israeli embassy to protest the killing of Egyptian border guards by Israeli forces.  The Israeli ambassador was withdrawn from the country, but Israel vowed to restore diplomatic ties with Cairo as soon as the safety of the embassy personnel could be guaranteed.  Protesters demands included the end of gas exports to the Jewish State.  This is something Israel can ill afford as it imports about 40 percent of its gas from Egypt. 

On the Turkish side of what appears to be the further regional isolation of Israel, we were able to see more restrictions and conditions put upon any further relations between the two states.  Besides expelling the Israeli ambassador and cutting any military trade ties, Turkey also proclaimed that Israel had been ‘disloyal’ to defense contracts that have been hailed as a sign of regional integration in the past.  Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey also said that in the future any Turkish vessel in international waters would be protected by the Turkish Navy.  This could be a possible point of friction between the militaries of the two countries, if there ever is another aid flotilla under the Turkish flag going in the direction of Gaza.

What will be important to look out for in the upcoming week is tomorrow’s visit of PM Erdogan to Cairo.  If he is interested in the further isolation of Israel, he could strike a deal using financial tools to influence Egypt into further straining its ties with Tel Aviv.  Another point of concern for Israel is also a possible visit by PM Erdogan to the Gaza strip, where he would surely receive a hero’s welcome by the people whose cause he has been heralding on the international stage.

Turkey really seems to have the initiative right now and in my opinion it is scary to imagine the possible outcomes if Turkey continues to be as direct with Israel as it has been.  Nonetheless, it was to be expected that at some point one of the states in the region would challenge Israel.  Yet, Turkey would have probably been the last state from which I would have predicted such drastic moves.

Egypt: The Ongoing Protest

Tahrir Square in Cairo has seen an uncountable number of protests ever since February.  This week, the protesters in the square were (once again) demanding that the military hold its promises of reform, and that there be a detailed timetable established that outlines the steps to be taken towards a transition from military to civilian rule.  This is of particular interest to those in Egypt which do not belong to or follow the Muslim Brotherhood.  One of the major concerns of other parties in the country has been, that the interim period between Mubarak and a new regime will be too short to allow other political parties besides the Brotherhood to form.  If the military decides to keep the interim period short and sweet, it would definitely play into the hands of the Islamic party.

Libya: Looking for Refuge and Justice

As the NTC is already talking about forming the first transition government, the question of where Gaddafi and his family have disappeared to still remains.  Just yesterday, Gaddafi’s son Saadi turned up in Niger, confirming possible fears that the dictator, wanted by the ICC might decide to escape to either Niger or Burkina Faso deeper into the African continent.  The fact that Niger has trouble securing its long border because of a lack of resources only makes Gaddafi’s escape through the country more likely.  Meanwhile at home in Libya, the NTC has to make sure that those innocent of aiding Gaddafi in his last ditch effort to hold onto the country are not targeted because of the color of their skin.  Many of the mercenaries hired by Gaddafi were of African origin.  About 5000 Africans have been rounded up in Tripoli alone and the question remains whether it is possible to give a fair trial and to determine if those incarcerated are actually guilty or only held for the color of their skin.

Syria: Indicators of Change

In the ongoing protests in Syria, there finally seems to be some minor indicators that after six months the support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime is waning.  There have been some defections from the Syrian army over refusal to shoot protesters, and Iran, a long time ally of al-Assad, has been calling for talks between the protesters and the regime.  If this is the start of more drastic change remains to be seen, but time definitely seems to be in favor of the people of Syria who have been waiting for their political freedoms for so long.

Other Links

The Impact of Al-Qaeda 

Are Turkey and Israel on a collision course?

The Economist, September 13th, 2001

Attack on Israeli Embassy in Cairo

The Precision of NATO airstrikes

If you have any comments, please post them below or send me an email to the address in my profile.  Stay tuned and see you next Monday.

The week of falling dictators, rising Prime Ministers, and defiant Presidents.

How many weeks of the year do you see a 42-year old dictatorship toppled?  Even though not all events this week were as positive, I must still say that this is a great week to start blogging about such a dynamic region of the world.  Here is a run-down of what’s new this week by country.  And make sure to read through this post (or at least scroll down to the bottom) as I will add always try to add a humorous touch to an otherwise too serious blog with links to some of the more ridiculous reports I was able to find throughout the week.  In that section you will also find links to those articles that I found particularly interesting, but that did not fit in any of my country/topic groups.

Libya: How much news about one country can you handle?

With Gaddafi on the verge of being toppled, newspapers and magazines have been filled with reports about the many aspects that entail the downfall of a regime that lasted close to half a century.  How much news about one country can you really read before your mind stops drifting?  Here is what you need to know.

Now that Gaddafi has been ousted by the National Transitional Council (NTC) it is only a matter of time until he turns up in some kind of hole similar to the one Saddam Hussein used in 2003.  Hopefully, this will be the only overlap between Iraq and Libya as I will discuss later.  The NTC is now faced with a tremendous task.  Will it be able to stay united as a front that can lead the people of Libya to a democratic and more importantly open society? 

The failures of Iraq and Afghanistan immediately come to mind.  The page in the newspaper covering yet another act of terrorism and violence by militant Islamic organizations has sadly become about as interesting as the daily weather forecast.  Yet, can we expect for Libya to turn into another failed attempt of regime change?  Many indicators point against it.  As pointed out by Al-Jazeera, Libya actually appears to start of from a far better position.  With little to no debt outstanding and no existing (repressive) political institutions like the ones present in Egypt right after the revolution there, the NTC will be able to present change far quicker thanks to incoming oil revenues and the absence of political institutions that would need to reformed.  French and British oil companies are surely going to profit, no matter which way Libya turns politically, as a little thank you for providing the NTC forces with a UN sanctioned air force through NATO.

Externally, Libya appears to be well placed, but what about internal issues?  Iraq and Afghanistan both feature a very heterogeneous population as opposed to Libya.  Mostly populated by Sunni Muslims, a danger Libya might face is tribal clashes over the power vacuum that might follow, if the transition is carried out without taking into consideration Libya’s very detailed tribal culture. 

Remember that call for donations for the ongoing famine in the Horn of Africa?  Somalia had a government once too, even though it might have been twenty years since that was the case.  That government was brought down by tribal clashes which were fought because the Somali tribes could not agree on how to fill the political vacuum left behind by the former dictator of Somalia, Siad Barre.  Will Libya follow the example of infighting that has been taking place in Somalia in the past two decades?  I most certainly do not hope so.

As much as it pains me to look at Libya through the rather over-used lens of post-9/11 security interests, it is necessary to consider Libya as a safe heaven for militant Islamist organizations like Al-Qaeda.  According to Deutsche Welle the threat emanating from Libyan, militant Islamists remains minimal.  There is a small core group of militant Islamists, called the Salafis, which embrace a purer and more archaic Islam.  Yet, 600 Salafis in a country of 6.5 million are not going to cause any tremendous change to a political structure.  And after all every country has its religious extremists.  The key is to keep arms out of their hands, which should prove difficult given the amount of weapons that have been circulating in Libya in the past months.

A final point that I wanted to stress is (yet again) the difficult integration that the NTC will have to deal with once peace is restored to the country.  It will be crucial to not only find a durable solution to any kind of tribal clashes that might break out, but it will also be crucial to include such minority groups politically that have previously been repressed (i.e. the Berber ethnic group), and to normalize ties with Libya’s African neighbors which still have refused to recognize the NTC as Libya’s official representative.  This may prove extremely difficult given the fact that many of the mercenaries that fought in Gaddafi’s militia stem from the 54 member-states in the African Union (AU).

Turkey: A Rising Regional Player

Turkey probably wins the award for being the most politically direct state of the week.  Besides bombing ‘Kurdish rebels’ from the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in Northern Iraq (infringing on international, territorial borders), it has just severed its diplomatic ties with Israel.  No big deal.  The sudden deterioration of ties came with the release of a UN report that deemed Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip legal, but carried out with unreasonable force.  Turkey’s foreign minister, Mr. Ahmet Davutoglu, was swift to downgrade ties with Israel after the country’s regime refused to apologize for the bloody Gaza flotilla raid in 2010.  Mr Davutoglu, further said that Turkey will take Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the legality of the blockade on the Gaza Strip.

A question that remains in my head is how far Turkey under Prime Minister Erdogan can keep playing both the pro-Western and pro-Palestinian side?  If it manages to do both however, become a member of the European Union (EU), and herald the cause of the Palestinian s successfully, it will become one of the leading regional powers in the MENA.

Syria: The next Libya?

The Economist had a great article discussing why Syrian protesters are willing to go out on the streets against their government despite the continued repression against them.  The answer is quite simple: dignity.  By killing more and more of Syrian citizens, President Bashar al-Assad slowly digs him-self a deeper and deeper grave.  Every Syrian that dies by the hands of his forces will only increase the feeling of robbed dignity experienced by the people in the streets.  Also, how much legitimacy does a government have that even right after the celebration of the end of the holy month Ramadan goes out and kills people? 

There is hope for the Syrian people though, as the EU has finally decided to impose sanctions on Syrian oil imports.  The realists among us might argue: “well, but economic sanctions are no hard solution to government repression.”  And yes, they might be right, if the EU member states did not buy up 95% of Syrian oil exports.  Syrian’s are faithful that this new sanction will slowly drive President al-Assad into dire financial straights, and for the sake of a freer and more importantly less bloody Syria, I hope so too.

Other Links

• American college kid joins Libya rebels for 'vacation'
• Chinese-made Qur'ans full of errors, warns Iranian official 
• Dutch gameshow for failed asylum seekers 
• Will Sarkozy get a statue in Tripoli?

And with these few links I say Good bye and until next week.  Please make sure to stop in next Monday for my next update on happenings in MENA.  I will try to be a little more detailed next week.  It’s almost 3am here and moving back to college has kind of kept me from writing a whole ton.  Please leave any comments either here on my blog or send me an email to the address listed in my profile!