How many weeks of the year do you see a 42-year old dictatorship toppled? Even though not all events this week were as positive, I must still say that this is a great week to start blogging about such a dynamic region of the world. Here is a run-down of what’s new this week by country. And make sure to read through this post (or at least scroll down to the bottom) as I will add always try to add a humorous touch to an otherwise too serious blog with links to some of the more ridiculous reports I was able to find throughout the week. In that section you will also find links to those articles that I found particularly interesting, but that did not fit in any of my country/topic groups.
Libya: How much news about one country can you handle?
With Gaddafi on the verge of being toppled, newspapers and magazines have been filled with reports about the many aspects that entail the downfall of a regime that lasted close to half a century. How much news about one country can you really read before your mind stops drifting? Here is what you need to know.
Now that Gaddafi has been ousted by the National Transitional Council (NTC) it is only a matter of time until he turns up in some kind of hole similar to the one Saddam Hussein used in 2003. Hopefully, this will be the only overlap between Iraq and Libya as I will discuss later. The NTC is now faced with a tremendous task. Will it be able to stay united as a front that can lead the people of Libya to a democratic and more importantly open society?
The failures of Iraq and Afghanistan immediately come to mind. The page in the newspaper covering yet another act of terrorism and violence by militant Islamic organizations has sadly become about as interesting as the daily weather forecast. Yet, can we expect for Libya to turn into another failed attempt of regime change? Many indicators point against it. As pointed out by Al-Jazeera, Libya actually appears to start of from a far better position. With little to no debt outstanding and no existing (repressive) political institutions like the ones present in Egypt right after the revolution there, the NTC will be able to present change far quicker thanks to incoming oil revenues and the absence of political institutions that would need to reformed. French and British oil companies are surely going to profit, no matter which way Libya turns politically, as a little thank you for providing the NTC forces with a UN sanctioned air force through NATO.
Externally, Libya appears to be well placed, but what about internal issues? Iraq and Afghanistan both feature a very heterogeneous population as opposed to Libya. Mostly populated by Sunni Muslims, a danger Libya might face is tribal clashes over the power vacuum that might follow, if the transition is carried out without taking into consideration Libya’s very detailed tribal culture.
Remember that call for donations for the ongoing famine in the Horn of Africa? Somalia had a government once too, even though it might have been twenty years since that was the case. That government was brought down by tribal clashes which were fought because the Somali tribes could not agree on how to fill the political vacuum left behind by the former dictator of Somalia, Siad Barre. Will Libya follow the example of infighting that has been taking place in Somalia in the past two decades? I most certainly do not hope so.
As much as it pains me to look at Libya through the rather over-used lens of post-9/11 security interests, it is necessary to consider Libya as a safe heaven for militant Islamist organizations like Al-Qaeda. According to Deutsche Welle the threat emanating from Libyan, militant Islamists remains minimal. There is a small core group of militant Islamists, called the Salafis, which embrace a purer and more archaic Islam. Yet, 600 Salafis in a country of 6.5 million are not going to cause any tremendous change to a political structure. And after all every country has its religious extremists. The key is to keep arms out of their hands, which should prove difficult given the amount of weapons that have been circulating in Libya in the past months.
A final point that I wanted to stress is (yet again) the difficult integration that the NTC will have to deal with once peace is restored to the country. It will be crucial to not only find a durable solution to any kind of tribal clashes that might break out, but it will also be crucial to include such minority groups politically that have previously been repressed (i.e. the Berber ethnic group), and to normalize ties with Libya’s African neighbors which still have refused to recognize the NTC as Libya’s official representative. This may prove extremely difficult given the fact that many of the mercenaries that fought in Gaddafi’s militia stem from the 54 member-states in the African Union (AU).
Turkey: A Rising Regional Player
Turkey probably wins the award for being the most politically direct state of the week. Besides bombing ‘Kurdish rebels’ from the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in Northern Iraq (infringing on international, territorial borders), it has just severed its diplomatic ties with Israel. No big deal. The sudden deterioration of ties came with the release of a UN report that deemed Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip legal, but carried out with unreasonable force. Turkey’s foreign minister, Mr. Ahmet Davutoglu, was swift to downgrade ties with Israel after the country’s regime refused to apologize for the bloody Gaza flotilla raid in 2010. Mr Davutoglu, further said that Turkey will take Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the legality of the blockade on the Gaza Strip.
A question that remains in my head is how far Turkey under Prime Minister Erdogan can keep playing both the pro-Western and pro-Palestinian side? If it manages to do both however, become a member of the European Union (EU), and herald the cause of the Palestinian s successfully, it will become one of the leading regional powers in the MENA.
Syria: The next Libya?
The Economist had a great article discussing why Syrian protesters are willing to go out on the streets against their government despite the continued repression against them. The answer is quite simple: dignity. By killing more and more of Syrian citizens, President Bashar al-Assad slowly digs him-self a deeper and deeper grave. Every Syrian that dies by the hands of his forces will only increase the feeling of robbed dignity experienced by the people in the streets. Also, how much legitimacy does a government have that even right after the celebration of the end of the holy month Ramadan goes out and kills people?
There is hope for the Syrian people though, as the EU has finally decided to impose sanctions on Syrian oil imports. The realists among us might argue: “well, but economic sanctions are no hard solution to government repression.” And yes, they might be right, if the EU member states did not buy up 95% of Syrian oil exports. Syrian’s are faithful that this new sanction will slowly drive President al-Assad into dire financial straights, and for the sake of a freer and more importantly less bloody Syria, I hope so too.
Other Links
- American college kid joins Libya rebels for 'vacation'
- Chinese-made Qur'ans full of errors, warns Iranian official
- Dutch gameshow for failed asylum seekers
- Will Sarkozy get a statue in Tripoli?
And with these few links I say Good bye and until next week. Please make sure to stop in next Monday for my next update on happenings in MENA. I will try to be a little more detailed next week. It’s almost 3am here and moving back to college has kind of kept me from writing a whole ton. Please leave any comments either here on my blog or send me an email to the address listed in my profile!
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