This week: Tightening the noose around each others neck, and why the Soviet Union matters in 2012.
Iran and the West: A game of hangman
Iran has warned its regional partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that it would have severe consequences if any of them were to fill the shortfall of oil supply on the world market that is sure to follow the sanctions to be imposed by the United States and the EU on the country. The threat to other exporters (particularly Saudi Arabia) comes during a time where Western countries have once again reiterated their will to keep “all options on the table” (i.e. military action/invasion) when it comes to addressing the Iranian nuclear threat. It is easy to forget that the real losers are the people of Iran that can do little to depose of the illegitimate regime that has chosen to exclude the majority of its own population from politics to eliminate the risk of being voted out of office.
To turn the sanctions put in place against Iran on its head and make the US and the EU suffer for their attempts to hinder the progress of their nuclear program seems to be one of the smartest moves coming out of Tehran so far. The decrease in oil supply (and the rise in prices for oil), will only serve as encouragement for Saudi Arabia to churn out more oil. Not only does it make more petrodollars on the barrel, but it also hurts its biggest opponent in the region, Shia Iran, by showing that the world market for oil could easily survive without it. No threat will help to stop Saudi Arabia from picking up the slack that Iran will leave in terms of oil output. The “invisible hand” as Adam Smith would say, will take care that there will be ample supply despite Iran’s loss.
Let me say this again, it is time for the West to act! You want to make sure Iran will be a responsible player once it gains nuclear capabilities then either do what you do best (or rather worst) and change the regime in Tehran or deliver on your promises and take military action. Even better, solve two problems at once and support the people of Iran in their quest to get their voice heard in the Iranian political arena. The West and Iran might be tightening the noose around each others neck, but the only ones that will hang by the end of the day are the people of Iran.
A Soviet remnant
As the last remnant of the global influence that the Soviet Union once had past its borders, the naval base at Tartus in Syria stands as controversial as ever in the uprising that still dominates Syria in the tenth month of violence. President Assad of Syria is slowly losing the reigns in his own country (similar to Muammar Gaddafi last year) between continuous revolts and the force of the Free Syrian Army operating out of Turkey. It seems so bad that he even moved to pardon those imprisoned during the uprisings (among them violent protesters and key leaders of the opposition). Meanwhile, a military intervention sanctioned by Arab countries seems unlikely even tough Qatar’s leader, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, has voiced his believes that military intervention is the only option to stop the continuing bloodshed of the Syrian government against its own people.
How to keep your last naval base outside of the former Soviet Union? That’s the question that Russia is asking itself right now. Where to get someone who can predict the future? If Russia supports Assad’s regime like it has and the revolutionaries finally pull through and establish a new political order in Syria, the future for the base at Tartus seems short-lived. When has the time come to support the opponents of the current regime? Russia could play a crucial role in ending the bloodshed that has already cost 5000 lives and it could keep its naval base at Tartus. All it has to do is to herald the cause of the Syrian people in the Security Council, where it could act to encourage other Arab leaders like the Qatari Sheikh to intervene in this conflict that is on the verge of civil war.
Other Links
No comments:
Post a Comment