A week full of halves

And here we go.  The last semester of my college career has finally started and I couldn’t ask for better conditions!  Relatively easy classes and an outstanding line-up in terms of jobs really leaves me optimistic for the months to come.  Here is to the Spring 2012 semester.  Let’s finish of strong with a 4.0!

This week: the difficulty of finishing of a revolution and what to expect from an Egyptian parliament under Brotherhood rule.

A job halfway done

As Libya moves on into a future without Gaddafi, it has to face what too many other countries after a revolution already have: the difficulties of making the succeeding regime seem legitimate in the eyes of the revolutionaries.  The attacks on the offices of the transitional government earlier this week give testimony to that.  While Libya is fighting with itself to restore order (and put all those loose weapons back into their lockers) it has difficulty upholding international treaties that the previous regime had signed.  The due date for complete eradication of chemical weapons in Libya by April 29^th, 2012, as part of global initiative to eliminate chemical weapons will not be kept by Libya due to the political turmoil in the country.

The problem is not starting the revolution, but ending it.  Yes, everyone might agree that it is time to pick up arms and change the status quo, but the ideal state that is envisioned by each individual that takes part in a revolution is very different.  How to appease the people, especially those that filled the ranks of the militias that drove Gaddafi’s regime to ruin?  The attacks on the transitional government’s offices took place because of the continued presence of Gaddafi’s cronies in the current regime.  Take them out and only the most radical will be left to fend for their fringe political ideals.  Then maybe Libya can face more urgent problems, like the eradication of chemical weapons in a country that has seen a surge in violence due to the lax culture surrounding weapons and violence that follows a revolution.

Into a brighter future?

The final results of the parliamentary elections in Egypt are finally in and the Muslim Brotherhood (to the dismay of many Israelis and Islamophobists) will provide 47% of the 508 member strong lower house of parliament.  Surprisingly, only 54% of all those eligible to vote showed at the polls.  The Brotherhood was quick to assure that the new parliament would be “reconciliatory.”

 I hope that the Muslim Brotherhood will hold its promise of forming a coalition with a secular party to gain the majority in parliament to nominate a prime minister.  What I find most surprising from all of this is the low voter turnout.  Only 54% showed up at the polls.  While this number is still far higher than the average voter turn out in the United States, it should come as a surprise that a country that had been abused for decades by an authoritarian regime does not chose to literally storm the polls at the first opportunity to vote in a free and fair election.  I guess some of the critics must be right.  Maybe the people of Egypt are not ready for a democracy after all.

Other Links

Yemen’s President Saleh ‘leaves country’ for treatment

Hamas political chief to step down

The week in pictures

Murder in Tehran

Beleaguered but still unbowed

A game of hangman and how the Soviets are screwing Syria

I finally got a chance to visit the 9/11 memorial (after my fraternity held a fundraiser for them earlier last year).  In my opinion, the place fails to really evoke the kind of sadness and memory that any memorial about such a disastrous event should.  Somewhere between the long wait to get in, the freezing cold, and the construction that is still going on around the memorial the compassion for all those that lost a family member that day is lost.  Hopefully, once the construction for the new World Trade Center is over, the memorial will finally fulfill its purpose, even though it will still be hard to find a moment of silence to commemorate the victims of 9/11 in the middle of the financial district.  For pictures check out this blog (it is in German, but hey pictures are pictures).

This week: Tightening the noose around each others neck, and why the Soviet Union matters in 2012.

Iran and the West: A game of hangman

Iran has warned its regional partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that it would have severe consequences if any of them were to fill the shortfall of oil supply on the world market that is sure to follow the sanctions to be imposed by the United States and the EU on the country. The threat to other exporters (particularly Saudi Arabia) comes during a time where Western countries have once again reiterated their will to keep “all options on the table” (i.e. military action/invasion) when it comes to addressing the Iranian nuclear threat.  It is easy to forget that the real losers are the people of Iran that can do little to depose of the illegitimate regime that has chosen to exclude the majority of its own population from politics to eliminate the risk of being voted out of office.

To turn the sanctions put in place against Iran on its head and make the US and the EU suffer for their attempts to hinder the progress of their nuclear program seems to be one of the smartest moves coming out of Tehran so far.  The decrease in oil supply (and the rise in prices for oil), will only serve as encouragement for Saudi Arabia to churn out more oil.  Not only does it make more petrodollars on the barrel, but it also hurts its biggest opponent in the region, Shia Iran, by showing that the world market for oil could easily survive without it.  No threat will help to stop Saudi Arabia from picking up the slack that Iran will leave in terms of oil output.  The “invisible hand” as Adam Smith would say, will take care that there will be ample supply despite Iran’s loss. 

Let me say this again, it is time for the West to act!  You want to make sure Iran will be a responsible player once it gains nuclear capabilities then either do what you do best (or rather worst) and change the regime in Tehran or deliver on your promises and take military action.  Even better, solve two problems at once and support the people of Iran in their quest to get their voice heard in the Iranian political arena.  The West and Iran might be tightening the noose around each others neck, but the only ones that will hang by the end of the day are the people of Iran.

A Soviet remnant

As the last remnant of the global influence that the Soviet Union once had past its borders, the naval base at Tartus in Syria stands as controversial as ever in the uprising that still dominates Syria in the tenth month of violence.  President Assad of Syria is slowly losing the reigns in his own country (similar to Muammar Gaddafi last year) between continuous revolts and the force of the Free Syrian Army operating out of Turkey.  It seems so bad that he even moved to pardon those imprisoned during the uprisings (among them violent protesters and key leaders of the opposition).  Meanwhile, a military intervention sanctioned by Arab countries seems unlikely even tough Qatar’s leader, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, has voiced his believes that military intervention is the only option to stop the continuing bloodshed of the Syrian government against its own people.

How to keep your last naval base outside of the former Soviet Union? That’s the question that Russia is asking itself right now.  Where to get someone who can predict the future?  If Russia supports Assad’s regime like it has and the revolutionaries finally pull through and establish a new political order in Syria, the future for the base at Tartus seems short-lived.  When has the time come to support the opponents of the current regime?  Russia could play a crucial role in ending the bloodshed that has already cost 5000 lives and it could keep its naval base at Tartus.  All it has to do is to herald the cause of the Syrian people in the Security Council, where it could act to encourage other Arab leaders like the Qatari Sheikh to intervene in this conflict that is on the verge of civil war.

Other Links

Mohamed El-Baradei will end Egypt presidency bid

Iraq city of Ramidi hit by attacks on police station

Hezbollah chief rejects call by UN to disarm

Hamas to return to Abbas’ seized Gaza house

Saudi forces clash with protesters in Qatif

How minor occurences shape international relations

People on the New Jersey Parkway drive like maniacs! That’s all.

This week’s blog is about a rescue like “in a Hollywood film,” and a promise for retaliation.

A Hollywood-esque rescue

After a week of hostile rhetoric between the United States and Iran over military exercises to be held in the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, an ironic situation like no other added some relief to those observing the situation.  The Al Molai, an Iranian fishing vessel, was saved by the USS Kidd, a US navy destroyer, from Somali pirates who had held the Iranian vessel for more than 40 days.  After the rescue, the destroyer detained the Somali pirates, supplied the Iranians with food and fuel and sent them on their way.  The Iranian foreign minister Salehi acknowledged the US action as a “humanitarian gesture,” but was quick to outline that Iranian warships have in the past rescued vessels.  Fars, the semi-state owned news agency of Iran, was suspicious about the authenticity of the event that appeared to be staged like “a Hollywood film.”  There was no direct interaction between the American and Iranian governments and the opportunity to thaw relations was not taken by either side.

It is great to see underlying solidarity in the face of piracy between the peoples of two states that have been at odds for over three decades.  I think this incident shows the gap that exists between a state and its peoples.  Would the people of Iran support the development or the use of a nuclear warhead?  I highly doubt it for they have not seen the benefit of doing either.  And the Americans?  The public surely does not seek to enter another war in the Middle East.  By rescuing the Iranian sailors, the American military has shown its goodwill towards the will of the Iranian and American peoples alike because they have shown both that it is not their ultimate wish to enter a conflict with Iran.

Disproportionate retaliation?

Earlier this week a hacker by the name of OxOmar published several thousands of credit card numbers stolen from Israeli credit card companies.  The numbers solely belong to citizens of Israel.  The Israeli deputy Foreign Minister, Danny Ayalon, condemned the event as a “terrorist” attack that would have consequences.  “No agency or hacker,” he said, “would be immune from retaliatory action.”  Meanwhile, it was determined that the hacker was a 19-year old citizen of the United Arab Emirates who currently resides in Mexico.  Israel so far has taken no actions to contact Mexican authorities.  Hamas however issued a statement to encourage further cyber-attacks on Israeli organizations.

Who to blame and how to retaliate?  This seems to be a recurring theme in the State of Israel since 1948.  Granted, the target of the attacks were specifically Israeli citizens, but if you hack an Israeli credit card company what are the chances you are going to end up solely with the numbers of Israeli citizens?  Now that they have a target the question will be how the Israelis will retaliate.  The 19-year old should definitely be arrested, if he indeed published the numbers.  No such action should be tolerated.  However, the more important question is if there will be action beyond that?  Will Israel use this to crack down on Arabs living within its borders?  Or will this be used to justify raids and attacks into the Gaza strip and the West Bank to claim computers and laptops?

Other Links

Egypt prosecutors seek death penalty (for Mubarak)

Iran on edge over upcoming elections

Blackwater settles Iraq killings legal case

Somalia Speaks

End them at once!

Forcing hands and loosening chains

The world of international studies is filled with indexes that attempt to give those unfamiliar with IR lingo a chance to understand in what direction certain countries or the planet as a whole are moving in terms of human development, equality, corruption, free press, etc.  The beauty of it all is of course that a numbered index can be abused to misrepresent what is actually happening.  The World Bank is probably case in point by trying to prove oh so hard that inequality is actually decreasing while in reality everyone (even us in the developed world) can witness an increase in inequality.  Anyways, the point I am trying to make here is that out of all the indexes I think one of the most interesting ones focuses on the number of times the word “recession” is used in the media.  If there is a correlation between “recession” and whether we find ourselves in a recession, shouldn’t there be a correlation between how many times Iran is mentioned across multiple news networks and how likely it is that the conflict with Iran will escalate?  I don’t know, just a thought because right now all I can see across the board is Iran, Iran, Iran.

That being said, this week will focus on (of course) Iran and on a review of the most important stories from 2011.  Happy New Years!!!

And another step closer

The semi-state controlled Fars News agency of Iran announced the past week that Iran had successfully tested mid-range surface-to-air missiles.  The test marks a milestone in Tehran’s quest for long-range missile capabilities to defend itself against what it deems US and Israeli aggression.  Ironically, the government denied the tests but issued a statement in which it stated that all kinds of missiles will be tested during the ten days of military exercises taking place in the Strait of Hormuz.  Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the US would succeed in pushing more sanctions against Iran’s oil and financial industries.

Okay how funny is it that an agency that is state influenced publishes something that goes strictly against the message the state is trying to send.  If that is not a sign of dysfunction in the Iranian propaganda machine then I don’t know what is.  On a more serious note it is concerning that Iran has developed mid-range capabilities.  Maybe President Bush was right to push so adamantly for a missile defense shield in the Czech Republic and Poland.  Of greater concern will be how to cope with an Iran that could close down the Strait of Hormuz and back up that blockade with a nuclear arsenal.  And this is not another case of a North Korean style rogue state.  Iran has got the oil and it has the tools to drive oil prices through the roof.  I am sure someone is willing to trade Iranian oil despite any kind of UN sanctions especially if Iran drives up the oil prices by closing the Strait (which sees 20% of world oil demand travel through it).  It will reach the point where there will be no other choice but to either force regime change in Tehran or to accept Iran for what it is and engage in open talks.  Pick your poison.

The highlights of 2011

I really recommend that all watch this short video (2:25) that shows the highlights of 2011.  The Times magazine was right to make “The Protester” the person of the year.  Tunisia not only sparked a revolution that swept through the Middle East and North Africa, but it also encouraged the Occupy protests around the world and some of the violence that took place in London and is still taking place in Athens over austerity measures.

I also want to take a second to commemorate the victims of the shootings in Norway.  Every time I see footage of that attack chills go down my spine.  To pick up the uniform of a policeman and to slaughter eighty individuals, most of them children, is such a personal and heinous crime that it must never be forgotten.  Norway lost its status as one of the most peaceful places in the world this year.  Shame on you Anders Breivik..

Other Links

Israelis and Palestinians to meet in Jordan

Iran's dangerous trade game

US pushes ahead with arms deal to Iraq

Cairo raids create climate of fear for NGOs

A Riche history

Iran and its lackeys

Merry Christmas to you all!  Hope you had a great time opening presents and sitting around the dinner table with your families.  It’s really a great time of the year to catch up with people and to celebrate to have each other.  A shame that that this holiday has become so commercial.  I think the best gift I got/gave was to call my guest mother in Switzerland.  We were both so happy to hear from each other.  It should really be the small things in life that matter, not a new laptop or a new pair of shoes.  Who really cares if you can buy those same things at any other given point in the year?

This week I’m going to focus on two stories that weren’t really featured across all the new websites I use as sources here.  Even though they could be described as ‘fringe’ stories they are nonetheless important.  Both of the stories relate to (who would have guessed) Iran.

Appeasement

Iran will hold military exercises in international waters around the Strait of Hormuz to show its defense capabilities during a time in which it has received much criticism from around the world for its nuclear program.  With the US 5^th fleet based in the Persian Gulf which can only be accessed through the Strait of Hormuz the exercise can be seen as an act of defiance against US sanctions that aim to cripple the state of Iran and its Revolutionary Guards which have been directly linked to the nuclear program of the country.  To top everything off, the Strait of Hormuz sees a third of the worlds oil supply travel through it on a yearly basis.

I used to think that liking Ahmadinejad and Iran to Hitler and the Third Reich was a very morbid and stupid comparison.  The former had done nothing comparable to the latter (yet) and Iran certainly did not show the same behavior that Germany did during the mid-1930s.  Well, with the war games and military exercises that clearly seem to tell the US “hey, look at us, we don’t care about your griefing,” Iran has done the deed and shown the US the international “bring it on” on a whole other level.  Appeasement like it happened in the 1930s is not an option to the US and Israel.  Yet what are they going to do?  Maybe support domestic uprisings against the Ayatollah and his regime?  Or rather accept Iran for what it is and stop giving it the attention it clearly tries to get internationally?

Connecting the dots

The Lebanese-Canadian Bank has been linked to money laundering funds for Hezbollah.  Allegedly, the bank launders money that is earned from South American drug sales, blood diamonds, and used car sales that mostly go trough Africa to reach both the American and European markets.  The investigation by the United States started in 2006 after the Lebanon War that aimed to weaken Hezbollah’s influence in the border region.

This story is nothing but a wake-up call for those who believed that all the illegal activity that takes place around the globe is regional.  Illegal business, just like legal business, is very much globalized and has to care even less about regulations set by states due to its very nature.  The funding of radical organizations like Hezbollah is just another reason to put an end to the drug violence taking place in Middle and South America, and to ensure the blood diamonds are no longer bought by diamond traders that service the developed world.

Other Links

Baghdad blasts: Hashemi accuses government over attacks

Lockerbie bomber protests innocence in 'last' interview

Arab Spring quiz of the year 2011 (this one is impossible)

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh to go to US

A troubled farewell

Viva la revolucion and almost nine years for what?

Finally done with all the work for this semester.  Phew.  With the twenty page first half of my research paper about the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, I finished off my last assignment and can now relax a little before the last semester starts.  Too bad that the cold is going around and I am so congested that my head feels like it is about to explode.  Anyways, I wish you all happy holidays as we move towards the end of the year.

Today I am talking about the continued violence in Cairo, and the (final) withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Keeping it sweet and short for the sake of my head.

Oh yeah and Kim Jong-Il just died.. Hopefully that'll change some things in North Korea.

Revolutionaries that act like counter-revolutionaries

For a third day in a row violence continues at Tahrir Square and its surrounding streets in Cairo.  Ten people have been reported dead and many more injured as police moved into the square to evacuate protesters and to burn down tents (sounds a little like Occupy Wall Street in NYC to me). The government claims that the protesters in Tahrir are counter-revolutionaries and do not belong to the same group that brought about Mubarak’s fall. The protesters claim to demonstrate against the military council that still has much of Egyptian politics under its control.

How can you define a revolutionary versus a counter-revolutionary in a country in which there is no status quo to revolt against?  To move in violently, and even shoot at protesters (see the Al-Jazeera link above) is certainly not a proportional response to non-violent protesters. However, to burn down the Institute of Egypt like the protesters did is not right either. The current government should allow the right for peaceful protest and should address the concern voiced by the population about the power that the military still has in the current power structure.  If the government and the military council do not do so soon, there will be protests well into next year until a parliament is finally elected and the drafting of a new constitution can begin.

"Aaaaaand they’re gone (finally)"

After more than eight years the last US troops finally crossed the border into Kuwait where they closed a metaphorical gate behind them and shook hands with the Kuwaitis for some pictures.  The mission in Iraq cost the US 1 trillion dollars.  According Gary Younge, a columnist for The Guardian, it is a shame that the United States probably won’t learn much from their time in Iraq.  The deed is done, the mission is over, it was a failure, and therefore most will try to forget the sacrifices that were made for eight years to achieve close to nothing.  Meanwhile, Iraq is still stuck in its sectarian quagmire that shows no sign of resolution.  Even in the highest echelons of power there are bomb threats against the Shia minority that forms part of the coalition that rules the country. 

The Iraqi government has been busy collecting data on Iraqis that worked with the Americans while they were still in the country.  Now that the American soldiers are gone there is little protection offered to those who “betrayed” their country.  Many have waited for their visa to the US for months, but most of them are still pending.  Most of the Iraqis that are affected fear that the information gathered by the government will leak to armed groups that will then assassinate all those that collaborated with the foreigners.

Personally, I hope that the money that is saved by leaving Iraq will ultimately help the United States to recuperate from its own economic problems.  Now that we have left the country it is important to convince the PM of Iraq to view Iran as an intruding power that wishes to heavily influence Iraqi politics to solidify its position as a regional power against Saudi Arabia.  The sectarian violence seems to be a constant problem that cannot be solved.  A national campaign to engage in cross sectarian dialogue would help to alleviate some of the strains that threaten to rip the young democracy apart.  To put a bit of a positive spin on Iraq, I would say that at least they have a head start on their democratic project.  They have had years to set up their parliament and constitution whereas Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt are just starting to create their first “real” democracies.

Other Links

Tunisia unveils Bouazizi cart statue in Sidi Bouzid

Hamas moves away from violence in deal with Palestinian Authority

Eyewitness: tear gas at West Bank protest

Syria 'set to' sign Arab League plan

In Pictures: Tahrir Square burns

Finals... Sad face.

With the final week of the semester ahead of me I have lots of writing assignments to complete.  This unfortunately means that I don't have time to write on the blog this week.  Make sure to check out the websites that are linked in the left column, or just click on the stories in the RSS news feed to the right.

See you next week!