Iran and its lackeys

Merry Christmas to you all!  Hope you had a great time opening presents and sitting around the dinner table with your families.  It’s really a great time of the year to catch up with people and to celebrate to have each other.  A shame that that this holiday has become so commercial.  I think the best gift I got/gave was to call my guest mother in Switzerland.  We were both so happy to hear from each other.  It should really be the small things in life that matter, not a new laptop or a new pair of shoes.  Who really cares if you can buy those same things at any other given point in the year?

This week I’m going to focus on two stories that weren’t really featured across all the new websites I use as sources here.  Even though they could be described as ‘fringe’ stories they are nonetheless important.  Both of the stories relate to (who would have guessed) Iran.

Appeasement

Iran will hold military exercises in international waters around the Strait of Hormuz to show its defense capabilities during a time in which it has received much criticism from around the world for its nuclear program.  With the US 5^th fleet based in the Persian Gulf which can only be accessed through the Strait of Hormuz the exercise can be seen as an act of defiance against US sanctions that aim to cripple the state of Iran and its Revolutionary Guards which have been directly linked to the nuclear program of the country.  To top everything off, the Strait of Hormuz sees a third of the worlds oil supply travel through it on a yearly basis.

I used to think that liking Ahmadinejad and Iran to Hitler and the Third Reich was a very morbid and stupid comparison.  The former had done nothing comparable to the latter (yet) and Iran certainly did not show the same behavior that Germany did during the mid-1930s.  Well, with the war games and military exercises that clearly seem to tell the US “hey, look at us, we don’t care about your griefing,” Iran has done the deed and shown the US the international “bring it on” on a whole other level.  Appeasement like it happened in the 1930s is not an option to the US and Israel.  Yet what are they going to do?  Maybe support domestic uprisings against the Ayatollah and his regime?  Or rather accept Iran for what it is and stop giving it the attention it clearly tries to get internationally?

Connecting the dots

The Lebanese-Canadian Bank has been linked to money laundering funds for Hezbollah.  Allegedly, the bank launders money that is earned from South American drug sales, blood diamonds, and used car sales that mostly go trough Africa to reach both the American and European markets.  The investigation by the United States started in 2006 after the Lebanon War that aimed to weaken Hezbollah’s influence in the border region.

This story is nothing but a wake-up call for those who believed that all the illegal activity that takes place around the globe is regional.  Illegal business, just like legal business, is very much globalized and has to care even less about regulations set by states due to its very nature.  The funding of radical organizations like Hezbollah is just another reason to put an end to the drug violence taking place in Middle and South America, and to ensure the blood diamonds are no longer bought by diamond traders that service the developed world.

Other Links

Baghdad blasts: Hashemi accuses government over attacks

Lockerbie bomber protests innocence in 'last' interview

Arab Spring quiz of the year 2011 (this one is impossible)

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh to go to US

A troubled farewell

Viva la revolucion and almost nine years for what?

Finally done with all the work for this semester.  Phew.  With the twenty page first half of my research paper about the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, I finished off my last assignment and can now relax a little before the last semester starts.  Too bad that the cold is going around and I am so congested that my head feels like it is about to explode.  Anyways, I wish you all happy holidays as we move towards the end of the year.

Today I am talking about the continued violence in Cairo, and the (final) withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Keeping it sweet and short for the sake of my head.

Oh yeah and Kim Jong-Il just died.. Hopefully that'll change some things in North Korea.

Revolutionaries that act like counter-revolutionaries

For a third day in a row violence continues at Tahrir Square and its surrounding streets in Cairo.  Ten people have been reported dead and many more injured as police moved into the square to evacuate protesters and to burn down tents (sounds a little like Occupy Wall Street in NYC to me). The government claims that the protesters in Tahrir are counter-revolutionaries and do not belong to the same group that brought about Mubarak’s fall. The protesters claim to demonstrate against the military council that still has much of Egyptian politics under its control.

How can you define a revolutionary versus a counter-revolutionary in a country in which there is no status quo to revolt against?  To move in violently, and even shoot at protesters (see the Al-Jazeera link above) is certainly not a proportional response to non-violent protesters. However, to burn down the Institute of Egypt like the protesters did is not right either. The current government should allow the right for peaceful protest and should address the concern voiced by the population about the power that the military still has in the current power structure.  If the government and the military council do not do so soon, there will be protests well into next year until a parliament is finally elected and the drafting of a new constitution can begin.

"Aaaaaand they’re gone (finally)"

After more than eight years the last US troops finally crossed the border into Kuwait where they closed a metaphorical gate behind them and shook hands with the Kuwaitis for some pictures.  The mission in Iraq cost the US 1 trillion dollars.  According Gary Younge, a columnist for The Guardian, it is a shame that the United States probably won’t learn much from their time in Iraq.  The deed is done, the mission is over, it was a failure, and therefore most will try to forget the sacrifices that were made for eight years to achieve close to nothing.  Meanwhile, Iraq is still stuck in its sectarian quagmire that shows no sign of resolution.  Even in the highest echelons of power there are bomb threats against the Shia minority that forms part of the coalition that rules the country. 

The Iraqi government has been busy collecting data on Iraqis that worked with the Americans while they were still in the country.  Now that the American soldiers are gone there is little protection offered to those who “betrayed” their country.  Many have waited for their visa to the US for months, but most of them are still pending.  Most of the Iraqis that are affected fear that the information gathered by the government will leak to armed groups that will then assassinate all those that collaborated with the foreigners.

Personally, I hope that the money that is saved by leaving Iraq will ultimately help the United States to recuperate from its own economic problems.  Now that we have left the country it is important to convince the PM of Iraq to view Iran as an intruding power that wishes to heavily influence Iraqi politics to solidify its position as a regional power against Saudi Arabia.  The sectarian violence seems to be a constant problem that cannot be solved.  A national campaign to engage in cross sectarian dialogue would help to alleviate some of the strains that threaten to rip the young democracy apart.  To put a bit of a positive spin on Iraq, I would say that at least they have a head start on their democratic project.  They have had years to set up their parliament and constitution whereas Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt are just starting to create their first “real” democracies.

Other Links

Tunisia unveils Bouazizi cart statue in Sidi Bouzid

Hamas moves away from violence in deal with Palestinian Authority

Eyewitness: tear gas at West Bank protest

Syria 'set to' sign Arab League plan

In Pictures: Tahrir Square burns

Finals... Sad face.

With the final week of the semester ahead of me I have lots of writing assignments to complete.  This unfortunately means that I don't have time to write on the blog this week.  Make sure to check out the websites that are linked in the left column, or just click on the stories in the RSS news feed to the right.

See you next week!

Liars and Deceivers

 Happy December!  As Christmas is coming, the malls in the United States are sure to be filled to the brim with people who wish to fulfill each other’s commercial dreams.  In all honesty, why would you go out and spend several hundreds of dollars on a lucky guess of what the person you are buying the present for might actually want.  Just go ask they person what they would like or even better go shopping with them!  You are so much more likely to buy the right present and it will be less stressful than worrying about what someone might want.  Now that I got my Grinch out for the night let me tell you about this weeks topics.  First I am going to focus on Iran and it’s claims that it shot down a US drone and second I am going to give a little update on the elections that took place in Egypt last week.  Finals week is taking its toll slowly but surely.  I’ve already written so many pages today so please do not expect this blog to be high quality. 

Where is that drone?

Iran has claimed that it shot down a US drone on its eastern border after it briefly violated its airspace.  This is the third time that Iran has claimed to have shot down US drones.

The drone that was apparently shot down is a RQ170, the most modern of the drones used by the United States.  The drone uses technologies similar to the B2 bomber to decrease its radar detect ability.

I wouldn’t put it beyond Iran to lie about shooting down a United States drown just to make itself appear stronger during a time where its diplomatic ties with Europe are becoming rocky.  Yet, let’s assume that they actually shot it down.  If they really have this drone which was apparently barely scratched by its forces in the process of bringing it down and if they have the other four drones that they have shot down since January, it would be possible for Iran to reengineer a drone like the RQ170.  Would Israel be ready to defend itself against drones like the ones the United States has?  Time will tell.

No, Islamists are not necessarily bad

Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak is very disturbed about the first results from Monday’s elections in Egypt.  The moderate Islamist Muslim Brotherhood took a third of the vote, the conservative Islamist Nour Party took a fourth of the votes, and the liberal Egyptian party took about twenty percent in the first round of elections.  Fears are now high that the Muslim Brotherhood will combine forces in a coalition with the Nour party to form an Islamist government that would push a conservative Islamist agenda which would try to implement Shari’a law.

While the fears seem to be legitimate, I think that Israel worries for no reason.  Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood does have ties to Hamas, but that is only because they support the struggle of the Palestinians actively, not because they have any sort of terrorist intentions.  If the Muslim Brotherhood takes over parliament, which it most likely will, Egypt will be more proactive in pushing for Palestinian rights within the region.  And that is certainly not a bad thing in my opinion!  Nothing is set in stone as elections will conclude with the election of the upper house in March of next year.

Other Links


Hillary Clinton 'concerned over Israeli democracy'
The fate of Saif Gaddafi
Syria given 24 hours to sign Arab League deal or face sanctions
Still rich but no longer so calm
Two mullahs went into a bar...

Winning polls and digging holes

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!  As finals week starts moving closer, its crunch time to get all of my research papers done for the semester.  I think there is nothing more exciting than reading a good book about international politics that covers a currently important topic that usually gets little attention.  One of my International Studies professors recently recommended a book to me to get a better understanding about the topic that I chose for my Bachelor thesis: Islamist Organizations in Egypt.  The Struggle for Egypt by Steven A. Cook has been a great read so far and I have to recommend it to anyone seriously interested in what is happening in Egypt right now.  The book gives a great understanding about the frustration that the Egyptian people have had for the past century and why they have come to demand their political and economic freedoms now.

Keeping in line with my little book recommendation I will be talking about the upcoming elections in Egypt, and the decision that the parliament of Iran has just made (yes, they do have a parliament believe it or not).

Was it hijacked or does it just need time?

The revolution that ended in the resignation of Hosni Mubarak on February 11^th, 2011, finally shows some fruit.  The people of Egypt will go to the polls today to vote in the first round of elections for members of the 508-member strong lower house of the Egyptian parliament.  However, continues protests are troubling the piece and quiet that is required to hold ordered elections. Current head of state, Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, has warned the Egyptian public that if the elections fail due to the violence that has been happening in places like Tahrir Square, there would be dangerous hurdles in the future.  Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken a backseat in the protests taking place in Tahrir, anticipating winning at least 25% of seats in the upcoming elections.  The Brothers’ passiveness in the protests against the current military junta has been viewed negatively by the Egyptian people who fear that the current military regime might cling to power.  Yet, “who will benefit from all the chaos?” The Economist asks.  Unfortunately, it does not seem as if the protesters in the streets will, since old political parties like the Wafd Party, the Freedom and Justice Party, and the Al-Tagmmu Party are likely to win at the polls.  None of those parties really represent the protesters in the street.  For more information on the technicalities of the elections please check out a very informative chart that Al Jazeera Online has released here and for more information on the parties participating in the elections please check out BBCs website here.

Personally, I am hopeful that the elections will go off smoothly.  Even though the protesters might not be represented directly by any of the parties, to have an election at all is a start.  A routine for parliamentary democracy needs to be established as soon as possible so that the military leadership can be replaced by a civilian one.  Once the civilian leadership is established, a party that represents the unemployed youth of Egypt can be voted into place.  The one thing that should be made sure is that no party gets voted into place that has limits to democracy on its agenda.

Digging a deeper hole for itself

After further sanctions to be imposed by the United Kingdom on Iran, the Parliament of Iran has voted to downgrade diplomatic ties from ambassadorial level to the level of charge d’affairs.  The move comes after the announcement of the UK treasury that Britain would cut all financial ties to the Central Bank of Iran.  This comes as a reaction to the IAEA report that directly linked the Iranian Central Bank to the financing of the nuclear program of the Persian state.  87% of the members of parliament voted in favor for the bill and the affirmative vote would have been even stronger if measures against the UK would have included even more severe measures like the closure of the UK embassy in Tehran .

As mentioned in the article by The Guardian above, Iran is only putting itself into deeper isolation in the world of international politics.  It has really come to the point where there is no need for sanctions anymore, because Iran feels so alienated that it will put itself in the corner.  Has the sanctions regime reached its goal?  Iran is still going for the nuke so I guess not, but at least it has reached a stage where Iran is an active supporter of the sanctions levied against it.

Other Links

Iran arrests 12 'CIA spies' for targeting nuclear plans

Yemeni President Saleh signs deal on ceding power

Arab League approves Syria sanctions

Saudi police on high alert

Moderate Islamists eclipse closest rivals in Moroccan elections

A Nod to the Past and Fear for the Future

Happy Thanksgiving!  Well, Happy Thanksgiving three days ahead of time.  I on my part can’t wait to stuff myself and spend the rest of the weekend digesting and complaining about what a bad idea it was to have eaten so much food.  More importantly though I hope that Black Friday will serve as a good indicator for an economy that is still on a recovery track.  Every dollar spent increases demand which helps create jobs.  So get out there and take advantage of those Black Friday Deals, because after all, “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

This week I will discuss the renewed protests that have sprung up in Egypt’s Tahrir Square this past weekend, and I will also give a little recap of how the revolution in Libya has affected neighboring countries.

1952/2011

Protesters are once again crowded into Tahrir Square, Cairo’s main thoroughfare, in a response to a draft document that gives guidelines for the constitution that is soon to be drafted.  Under the guidelines, the military as well as it’s budget would be exempt from civilian oversight.  Similar to the events that took place in New York City’s Zuccotti Park, Tahrir Square was cleared of all protesters and tents and banners were removed.  Yet, the methods by which protesters were evicted differed greatly, as military police used tear gas and rubber bullets (fired at head height) to disperse the crowd.  Concerns are now growing among many Egyptians that the current military council has hijacked the revolution, reminiscent of the coup d’etat of the Free Officer's Movement in 1952.

When Gamal Abdel Nasser and his Free Officers (among them Anwar al-Sadat and Hosni Mubarak) smashed the previous political system almost sixty years ago, they took it upon themselves to set the foundation for an Egyptian political system.  The system they hoped would pay less attention to their quasi-colonizer Britain, and more attention to the needs of the Egyptian people (especially peasants and other members of the lower class).  Their plans were noble and altruistic, but the system that they created paralyzed Egypt socio-economically and led to the circumcision of all political movements to empower the single most powerful party, the National Democratic Party (NDP).  What is different between 1952 and 2011 is that the military council in control now (Free Officers in 1952/Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in 2011) is that the Supreme Council (SCAF) does not have a foreign power that it can blame to gain widespread political support.  With the guidelines for the new constitution proposed by the SCAF it cannot be out ruled that the military is planning on an undemocratic future.  It is crucial to keep in mind that one of the conditions for a truly democratic political system is the control of civilians over the military.  This is something the council clearly opposes.  So once again, the people of Egypt have all the rights in the world to crowd Tahrir Square and protest for a future that allows the people of Egypt to be represented accurately.

Libya’s relations to the Desert

Now that Gaddafi is gone and Libya is on its way towards a new political reality, it has to be careful that it does not fall under the hands of an outside regional power like Saudi Arabia in the case of Lebanon, or Iran in the case of Iraq.  Qatar seems to be a good candidate for becoming a patron trying to influence domestic politics in Libya according to The Economist.  Meanwhile, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, was captured dressed up as a camel herder outside of Zintan where he will receive his trial.  The danger of high-tech weaponry escaping the country into Mali, Niger, and Chad is now present as Tuareg rebels, formerly supported by Gaddafi, take the guns they acquired during the revolution back to their countries of origin.  Guest workers from Niger are now also left without a source of income which will greatly reduce the amount of remittances sent back to this poor African state.

The phenomenon of having a patron state seems to become more and more common.  Not only does Libya seem to slowly fall into Qatar’s “sphere of influence,” but Turkey has also shown interests in establishing a no-fly zone over a Syria in turmoil (see the link in the “Other Link” section below).  Foreign influences in the region need to be contained as countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey become more and more dominant.  According to some international critics, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi should get a trial in The Hague.  As mentioned in an earlier article of mine, I do support that Saif should be tried in Libya.  Maybe he will get the death penalty, but if it helps forge a tighter knit Libyan society, then Saif might have to be the sacrifice to achieve that state of relative peacefulness.  It is sad how the African continent is often brushed aside in importance.  The impact of the Libyan revolution is indeed very grave and could lead to instability in Mali, Niger, and Chad since Tuareg rebels gained new arms in the Libyan conflict earlier this year.  Hopefully, Libya will play an equally as important role in employing guest workers as it did before the revolution and hopefully, it will do a better job than the previous regime in appeasing the Tuaregs and making them fit into their respective societies.

Other Links

Arab League rejects Syrian demand to change peace plan

Protesters storm Kuwaiti parliament

Iran 'influenced' Iraq over US troops' exit

Palestinian president to seek unity government with Hamas

Syrian rebels attack Ba'ath party offices in Damascus

Why Iran Is going for Nukes and Why Regional Exclusion matters

 “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won’t cross the street to vote in a national election.” – American saying.

This week was national Election Day, and unfortunately as usual the voter turnout was most likely less than 50% of the voting-eligible population.  Judging from the above saying you can probably see how I feel about the low voter turnout.  As a citizen of Germany, the right to vote was apparently brought back to my fellow countrymen and me by the American forces that defeated the fascist Third Reich.  Imagine how it must feel to see that democracy lacks the active support of the majority of American people.  To vote on the future of the most powerful nation of the world is a privilege that I would love to have.  So do your nation (and me) a favor and use the privilege that was given to you by our troops.  On that note, I hope you thanked a veteran on Veterans Day!

This week I will discuss how a nuclear Iran would impact the United States and Iran’s neighbors, and the fact that Syrian was suspended from the Arab League and what this might mean for the future of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime.

What a Nuclear Iran means to US

With the release of the recent IAEA report about Iran’s nuclear program it now seems clear and obvious that Iran is trying to acquire a nuclear warhead.  Understandably, Israel and other countries in the region now fear that a Shiite Iran, already standing out as stranger to its mostly Sunni neighbors, will show no remorse using a nuclear warhead. 

I think it is time for Israel and the United States to face the fact that Iran will inevitably possess nukes.  Does that make it right?  Of course not.  Yet, Iran would not be the first country to acquire nuclear warheads if one is to believe the rumors about the Israeli arsenal of weapons.  A nuclear Iran would ensure that Israel will be more considerate before striking targets outside of its borders (especially Hezbollah in southern Lebanon), since a nuclear Iran could threaten to respond disproportionally with a nuclear warhead.  The most important thing to consider now is not how to keep Iran from going nuclear, but how to make Iran fit into regional politics as a nuclear power while making sure that no one else tries to go down the nuclear road.  Other measures besides the relatively weak sanctions program of the UN will have to be considered to ensure that no one else gains the potential to annihilate human life so effectively.

Can intervention by a regional body lead to the end of a regime? (I’m sure Gaddafi would think so.)

Syria is set to be suspended from the Arab League on Wednesday after a deal that was struck between the League and Syria did not show the desired effects of ending the bloodshed perpetrated by the Syrian regime against its own people.  Syria promptly called for an emergency meeting before the suspension takes effect so that the case can be reviewed.

If the Syrian regime did not know that full membership in the Arab League mattered to its continued survival, it would not try to petition the Arab League’s decision to suspend it from the organization.  Besides another victory for the international system for being so influential on states, this shows us that Syria has just entered the murky waters that Libya was in about half a year ago.  Even though the League does not support a no-fly zone like the one that contributed to Gaddafi’s downfall, the suspension adds more pressure to Syria and makes it an even bigger outcast than it already is.  The suspension was followed by raids from Syrian civilians on the embassies of the countries that voted in favor of the suspension.  If that does not show what kind of actions the Syrian state supports than I do not know what does.

Other Links
Bahrain breaks up terror cell - state media
Iran explosion at Revolutionary Guards military base
US defense chief Panetta warns against Iran strike
Egypt closes Pyramid amid 11/11/11 rumours
In Pictures: The world in 24 hours

Revolution from within and averting violence from without

“Remember, remember the 5^th of November the gunpowder treason and plot.  I know of no reason why the gunpowder treason should ever be forgot.”  Those are the lines that start one of my favorite movies: V for Vendetta.  The movie depicts the steps that lead to an all out revolution against a fascist government in a fictional Great Britain of the future.  The movie certainly seems to be inspired by the book 1984 written by George Orwell.  A book that I would strongly recommend everyone reads in order to get a better idea of what it might be like to live under a government that controls absolutely everything about you.  I am sure that there are those in Egypt who can very well connect to the live of Winston Smith, the protagonist of 1984.  Constantly afraid of discovery by the secret police, he ultimately shares the fate that many of the enemies of the Egyptian state suffered under Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak.

To chime in with my piece from two weeks ago entitled “Negotiating with the Bad Guys,” I will briefly discuss an article written for The Guardian which discusses why it is not bad to talk to people like Gaddafi, and then I will move on to give my two cents on how states should engage diplomatically with Syria.  As always check the end of the post for interesting links.

Why negotiating with rogue states is important

In his article “There’s no shame in talking to people like Gaddafi,” John Deverell makes the argument that direct negotiations and relationship building between government officials is a useful way in which to guarantee world peace.  His title specifically refers to the success of convincing the Libyan government to abandon its nuclear arms program.  Yet, he also gives some great examples like the Good Friday Agreement reached between the IRA and the British Government under the guidance of Senator George Mitchell in 1998, or the recent exchange of prisoners between Israel and Hamas for the Israel soldier Gilad Shalit.  All three of these examples could not have happened without serious involvement of government officials.

I seriously support John Deverell in his argument.  Negotiations should be the first and hopefully last resort in avoiding potential conflict.  Let’s go ahead and apply his thinking to another potential conflict.  Instead of taunting each other, there should be closer negotiations between Israel and Iran led by an easily deniable third party.  This could be done by an NGO that is willing and able to go back and forth between the two states.  This way, basic terms for a peaceful resolve could be laid out to each other and talks could move to the infamous stage of “talks about talks.”  Possibly a conflict could be averted and Israel would not have to hold drills for missile attacks like the ones that are shown in the link at the bottom of the post.

Why recognize an illegitimate regime

Robert Ford, the Ambassador of the United States to the Syrian Republic, was pulled out of Syria after he was accused by local media (widely controlled by the Syrian state) of aiding Syrian rebels.  These accusations were followed with threats to his life online and on the walls of his very home. 

The posting of a diplomat to a state implies that there is at least some kind of recognition by the sending state for the receiving state.  After what the Syrian government has done to its people during the past months in the uprisings that have been taking place, the State of Syria does not deserve any recognition by any other state.  Therefore, I believe that the United States should not only pull out its ambassador to Syria, but it also pull out all remaining personnel stationed in the country.  By taking away recognition to the regime of Al-Assad, his position as the legitimate leader will be challenged and those remaining under the impression that he should remain in power will be weakened in resolve.  The United States should herald in a movement that could set a beginning to the end of recognition of the illegitimate regime of Bashar Al-Assad.

Other

In Pictures: Eid al-Adha

Graves of the deposed, exiled and reviled

Activists on Gaza-bound vessels detained

Israelis hold drills for missile attack

New Iran nuclear report set to increase Middle East tensions

Defensive Rhetoric and why the International Criminal Court should sometime reconsider its jurisdiction

Happy Snowoween?  The northeast of the United States just saw several inches of snow and Halloween has not even passed yet.  Never in my life have I seen snow fall this early in the year.  Along with the snow that fell came the many arguments for the fact that global warming is true.  Facebook exploded with comments about the early snow and global warming.  My favorite was: “I told you so. #AlGore.” because it exactly summarizes what my view on this topic is.  While I might not be greatly engaged with the environmental scene, I do believe that if we do not consciously reduce our carbon output we will slowly but surely destroy the planet we live on and with it the future of humanity.  It makes me proud to see that my country of birth, Germany, is the global leader in countering current carbon dioxide levels, but it upsets me to see that so little is done by other states around the world.  If you think that global warming is a myth, then chances are that you also have a more realistic view on politics in the world.  There is a very easy way to convince you to reduce the use of carbon based fuels that is tied to the region that this blog is about.  The United States and other western powers are prone to being blackmailed by such countries as Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia as long as we keep relying on their oil resources.  If we want to see our countries free from foreign influence we will have to start finding alternative energies that can be produced at home and not abroad.  Strategies like these will ensure that the United States and other western powers will remain crucial international players in the coming decade.

This week I will focus on Syria’s continued crackdown on its population, and on the justice that Saif al-Islam, Gaddafi’s son, can expect when he is captured.

Syria: A repeat of Libya or another Afghanistan?

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has warned the West that if it was to intervene in the country it would cause an earthquake in the region.  He further stated that if the West was to intervene, another Afghanistan would be born out of the ruins of the Syrian regime. After seven months of protests the UN estimates that 3000 have died in the mostly non-violent protests.  After the bloodiest clashes to date on Saturday, the Arab League finally issued a statement issuing its concerns about the continued killing of Syrian civilians.  Furthermore, a new group called the Free Syrian Army has formed.  The group is made up of defectors from the Syrian army and is based out of the Turkish-Syrian border region.  They could be the start of the first coordinated violent response to the continued crackdown by President al-Assad’s forces.  There have been calls for international intervention, but so far nothing has happened due to the veto of China and Russia in the Security Council about anything that has to do with Syria.

It is time for the international community to act and help the Syrian people to depose of their leader.  Even if he had some kind of legitimacy before the uprising, he definitely eroded the last bit of it when he decided to roll out his tanks against his own people.  The rhetoric that Assad uses, reminds one of the same kind of talk that Gaddafi as his power started to wane.  Gaddafi talked about the “Crusaders” who had come to take Libya like in ancient times.  He attempted to mobilize his people.  Assad on the other hand uses the comparison to Afghanistan in order to deter foreign forces from intervening.  Why does he do this?  Because he knows that his own people do not stand behind him since he is the minority Shia ruler of a mostly Sunni country.  Can Russia and China really stand behind a leader that is not recognized as legitimate by his own people?  I understand that these two countries want to preserve their strong ties with the Syrian state, but in the long-run they will fail in accomplishing their goal because the victory of the people of Syria is inevitable.  When they come to power they will make sure to reconsider ties with those who spoke out against them during their revolution.  My hopes now lie with the Free Syrian Army which will hopefully gain momentum as the crackdown by Syrian forces grows more intense.

Libya: Between International and Domestic Justice

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son and heir apparent to Gaddafi’s Libya, was called "the last piece” in bringing Gaddafi’s Libya to an end by Colonel Ahmed Bani, the military spokesman for Libya’s interim government.  The ICC has reported that Saif has been in contact with it through intermediaries and that he wanted to prove his innocence so that the court would withdraw the warrant that was issued on him.  Meanwhile, the interim government has voiced its desire to give Saif a trial in Libya despite the warrant on his head by the ICC.  Despite the legal debacle about “the last piece” Libya seems to be well on its way towards a more liberal political system and the countries oil production is recovering far faster than the one in Iraq did after the Second Gulf War.

Despite the fact that Libya is not a member of the ICC, I would like to make an argument about the appropriateness of the ICC to intervene in cases of internal regime change.  Should the ICC in a case like Libya still have the right to prosecute criminals associated with the former regime over the new regime that more accurately presents the will of the people?  Given the cruel justice that Saif’s father received the answer might be no, but in all honesty I think that in this case the state should be allowed to exercise its sovereignty despite the commendable goals that the ICC has.  Libya could prove that it has a judicial system that is just and respectful by putting Saif on trial.  This would help to lessen the impact that Gaddafi’s killing has had on the perception of Libya abroad (as discussed last week).  And by the way, do you seriously think that Saif has any desire to proof his innocence to a relatively weak court that issued a warrant on him and his father?  I think it more likely that he will escape Libya (if he hasn’t yet) and search refuge somewhere where the ICC will never get its hands on him.  Hopefully, not too much efforts will be wasted on finding Saif as Libya should start looking towards the future.  There is no point in dwelling about the past too much.

Other Links

How Egypt's activists used social media and Cairo's taxis

Israeli air strikes kill nine militants

When Dad goes to war

Arab Spring activists win human rights award

Germany faces questions over alleged spy agency involvement in Libya

The Death of Kings and the Necessity of Negotiating with Terrorists

I just returned from the 2011 National Model United Nations Conference in Washington, DC.  These conferences are a great exercise in public speaking and diplomacy, but sadly they also show the weaknesses that exist in the world of international politics.  Every time I return from a Model UN conference I wonder how useful the international system actually is in solving issues that matter to us.  By no means is the UN a useless organization, but the flaws that exist when member-states are still not willing to cede some sovereignty to an organization promoting global governance cannot be ignored.  Consensus voting as it is practiced by the General Assembly will never bring humanity to adhere to greater standards, simply because we always agree on the lowest common denominator when it comes to issues like poverty, famine, and human rights.  What am I trying to say?  Member-states of the UN should grant the organization more powers so that issues that plague humanity can be solved by the parliament that governs humanity.

Given the great weekend I had in DC, please do not expect this post to be intellectually stimulating in any kind of way.  I am extremely exhausted, but wish to publish this post right now so that you don’t have to wait an extra day for your weekly post.  This week I am going to focus on the circumstances of Gaddafi’s death and I am going to discuss the situation and future of Somalia.  As always check the end of the post for articles I consider important as well.

The King is Dead! Long Live the Republic!

As I am sure you have already heard Colonel Gaddafi, the King of Kings of Africa, has finally met his end.  After 42 years of rule, Gaddafi was supposedly shot in the head by one of the soldiers that led the attack on the autocrat’s convoy as he tried to escape his birthplace of Sirte.  A bullet hole on the left side of his head marks the entrance point of the bullet that ended the longest rule of any man in all of Africa.  His body is now on display in a storage freezer in the city of Misrata which had seen the fiercest fighting during the eight month long revolution.

What is wrong with all of this?  Well seen from the point of view of the average Libyan, the Colonel probably got what he had coming in a more timely fashion without the delay of a justice system.  The death of Gaddafi was brought about by a soldier who in the Battle of Sirte could have been carried away by the bloodlust and emotion that comes with being exposed to such gruesome scenes.  The people of Libya wanted justice, and it was delivered by the pistol of a soldier instead of the gavel of a judge in The Hague.  Seen in the broader picture though, the way Gaddafi was killed and the way he is on display to the masses now has some very serious implications in terms of international politics.  The extrajudicial killing of the former leader of Libya means that the new Libyan Republic will be born out of blood with a stained human rights record.  With the increased emphasis of the importance of human rights by developed states, it is crucial for states like Libya to have a spotless human rights record in order to start off on good terms with strong economic powers in the area (i.e. the member-states of the EU).  The killing of Gaddafi also takes away from the legitimacy of the new government which can now be hardly seen as a regime that treats all equal, even bigger than life leaders.  The display of Gaddafi’s body is furthermore against Islamic burial tradition which calls upon the burial of a deceased Muslim to take place as soon as possible.  The new regime might very well take criticism for exposing the dead body of a Muslim for such a long time from fellow Arab states.  Regardless, the people of Libya are celebrating that after eight months they have finally gained their complete independence.

Negotiating with the Bad Guys

I was reading through last week’s Economist today and came across an article that reminded my of a paper I wrote for my Terrorism in the Modern World class last year.  The article I read dealt with the fact that it might be in the interest for Western powers to negotiate with dominant powers in this Eastern African country, even if those dominant powers have fundamentalist tendencies like the terrorist group Al-Shabaab.  I figured I would publish my paper so you can get a better idea of how Al-Shabaab became to be and why I agree so much with the Economist’s point of view.  A link to the paper is added at the end of this post.  Please excuse the formatting.  I am still trying to find a website with which I can upload and display my papers properly (so please let me know if you know one!)  Here is also a link that gives you a little visual on how things are looking on the ground in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia.

The Birth and Annals of a Terrorist Organization: Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen

Other Links

Heir to Saudi Arabia throne dies

High turn out as Tunisia's historic poll ends

Obama: Full Iraq withdrawal by Christmas

Dozens die as strong quake rocks eastern Turkey

Tunisians flock to voting stations for first taste of democracy in 50 years

Deal and No Deal

This week a bunch of my friends went to the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations in downtown Manhattan.  I don’t think I have ever seen people at my school so divided over an issue that does not even fall within their usual area of interest.  And that is exactly where the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations become dangerous.  If people who have little to no idea about how the world economy works decide to take part in a demonstration that targets one of the main drivers of the world economy, why are they there?  I think many young people attend the demonstration because it is ‘cool’ to go to something that challenges the current system, even when this system is so well established that abandoning or altering it would be very difficult and probably detrimental.  Another thought that crosses my mind is whether the time at which these protests are occurring is related to the public uprisings in the MENA.  Given the recent success in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt of political revolutions in disposing their infamous leaders, why not stage a revolution that challenges the economic system at a time where Western capitalism is struggling?

This week, I will focus on the prisoner swap that is taking place between Hamas and the Israeli government, and recent developments between Iran and the USA. As always make sure to check the end of the post for additional links (this week particularly about Occupy Wall Street).

A Game of Numbers

Israel agreed to release 1,027 Palestinians for the return of one of their soldiers, Gilad Shalit, who was captured five years ago, on June 25^th, 2006, at the age of 19 by the Islamist organization Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  The Economist’s headline “An extraordinary exchange rate” probably summarizes best what can be described as a pretty lopsided deal.  Both parties are likely to gain fame among their own populations and abroad at a time where it is needed to secure a solid base of support in a region in transition.  Hamas was able to secure many of its most infamous members who have been serving decades of prison terms for committing acts of terrorism during both intifadas.  The return of over a thousand Palestinians, many of which were expected to remain locked in Israeli prisons for the remainder of their lives, is sure to give Hamas renewed legitimacy from Palestinians not just in the Gaza Strip, but also in the West Bank and abroad.  Israel, working closely with Egypt to ensure the smooth transfer of prisoners, is sure to gain support domestically from a population that has been waiting for Sergeant Shalit to be freed and internationally from countries that see this prisoner transfer as a step towards mutual recognition between Hamas and the Israeli state.  Without a doubt many of those released will pick up arms to fight Israel again.  So in the long-run is it going to be worth it for Israel to release so many of its public enemies?  Cooperation over the release with Egypt will help to fix the strained ties between the two countries and when looking at it that way, the release of some one thousand prisoners is worth a peace treaty that took thirty years and four wars to come about.

“Me? Nahhhhhh.”

This past week, Iran proved once again that it is the number one state in the world when it comes to denial.  After a plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador was unveiled by a US undercover agent acting as a member Mexican drug gangster, President Obama was quick to accuse the Iranian regime of planning the attack on the Saudi envoy’s life.  Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad both denied the claim that this assassination was ordered by their regime, even though one of the two planners was identified as belonging to the Quds Force, a special unit under direct control of the Ayatollah tasked with exporting the Islamist Revolution beyond the borders of Iran.  Both of them also advised the United States from refraining from any kind of retaliation.  (If that in itself is not a sign of guilt I don’t know what is!)  Iranian experts chimed into the condemnation of the United States by stating that Iran would have no benefit from assassinating the Saudi ambassador in Washington.  While some might claim that a state-sponsored act of terrorism could lead to a war between the United States and Iran, I have to agree with the remarks made at the end of this Deutsche Welle article.  It is unlikely that the United States will be willing to enter another prolonged war in a region that is already in great turmoil.  The chance to attract more negative attention is simply too great.  I support President Obama for wanting to prosecute Iran internationally and I hope that he will be able to use the international system to weaken the legitimacy of Iran’s leadership.  Oh and one last note: Do you really think that Iran has no reason to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States?  Wouldn’t that just show how ‘high and mighty’ Iran is if it is able to murder the envoys of its greatest regional enemy, Saudi Arabia, even in the most secure state of the world?  I don’t think we need to look any further than Iraq and Bahrain to see that those two states are so pitted against each other that I would not put the assassination of diplomats in other states beyond them.

Other Links

Report: Arab Spring upheaval cost $55bn

In pictures: Occupy the World

What is money?

Arab League foreign ministers discuss Syria

Libya: Bulldozers raze Gaddafi Bab al-Aziziya compound

Being responsible to those relying on you

Today’s anecdote goes out to all of those out there who still do not believe in this little concept called global warming.  We are moving towards the middle of October and still it was almost 80 degrees Fahrenheit (about 27 degrees Celsius) in Northern New Jersey.  I honestly felt like it was the middle of August all over again when I had just returned from my summer trip in Europe.  It is time for us to clean up our own act so that we can hold the greatest polluters responsible with a clear consciousness.  A whole other blog could be written on that topic though so let’s focus back on the Middle East and North Africa.

The articles I will highlight are the beheading of guest workers in Saudi Arabia, the sudden change of mind of one of Syria’s main supporters, and Egypt’s creeping advances towards democracy.  As always there will be some links at the end of the post that I think deserve particular attention so make sure to check these out (two of them are very picture heavy for those of you who get tired reading my post).

Adding insult to injury

Why is it significant that Saudi Arabia just executed eight Bangladeshi guest workers publicly and condemned three others to prison terms and flogging over the murder of an Egyptian citizen in 2007?  Saudi Arabia just like many other states which are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), an organization akin to the EU, houses a significant number (usually in the millions) of guest workers from Asian countries.  Lured with the promise of high wages, those workers are literally held hostage in countries like Saudi Arabia, getting paid a minimal wage.  They are only allowed to leave after their sponsor, who has to be a Saudi Arabian citizen, returns their passport to them which is collected at the time of their arrival.  Now take this serf-like system of employment and throw a dead body into the mix.  How easy would it be to frame a group of non-Arabic speaking guest workers at your mercy for committing the murder of a Muslim?  Put them in front of a Shari’a court that only operates in the Arabic language and they will not even be able to defend themselves.  By no means am I trying to defend the murder of a human being, because who knows maybe those eleven Bangladeshis were guilty of the crime.  Yet, the justice system in Saudi Arabia is too quick to hand out the death penalty (in this case beheading) to too many.  And it would be no surprise to me if this case of further abuse would be seen as adding insult to the injury of servitude that the guest workers in GCC countries are experiencing.

A turn in events, well maybe

Even those of you out there who dislike the UN and call it a useless bureaucracy have to admit that the UN’s Security Council responded appropriately when it came to protecting the Libyan rebels.  Without the legitimization by the Security Council of a NATO intervention in Libya, the rebels revolution would have been stopped in it’s tracks at Benghazi.  Granted, whether or not Western powers should intervene in MENA countries is another issue that some might have here, but overall it can be agreed that many lives were saved when Colonel Gaddafi’s troops were kept from taking the rebel’s capital city.  Yet, as appropriate as the response by the Security Council might be, any decision made by it is dependent on the agreement of the five veto powers, and this is where the current uprising in Syria comes into play.  In the past, both Russia and China have vetoed any kind of condemnation of the violence committed by the Al-Assad regime in Syria.  A condemnation would be a necessary precursor to any kind of resolution calling for military intervention, so in effect the Russians and Chinese representatives have prevented the Syrian rebels from receiving support like the Libyan rebels did.  Now with a new call by President Medvedev of Russia for Al-Assad to facilitate reforms or step down, the pressure for the repressive leader of Syria has increased.  An abstention from Russia on the Security Council would make an intervention in Syria more likely.  Maybe that is why the Syrian regime has warned other states from recognizing the newly declared National Council that stands in opposition to Al-Assad.  A repeat of Libya is definitely not in the interest of the current regime.  The pressure is on.

Why aren’t we doing it like them?

Do you remember the old cheesy saying that you hear every time the question comes up of why history is important: “Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.”  No other saying could be more appropriate as the Egyptian public looks westward and wonders at the sight of Tunisian democratic progress “why aren’t we doing it like them?”  Are the Egyptians doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past as they enter another alleged ‘transitional period’ that leads to the holy grail of democracy?  Keeping in mind that the last transitional period heralded in by Egypt’s military lasted sixty years and was everything but democratic in nature, another junta of generals should bring about a certain unease when it comes to Egypt’s political future.  The Tunisians are due to vote on the 23^rd of October, while the Egyptians will have three staggered elections to determine the members of the lower and upper house who will then draft the resolution.  Both houses will be elected by next March.  This will leave the Egyptians lagging behind five months in the democratic process, even though Egypt’s revolution was successful only a month after former President Ben Ali of Tunisia was ousted.  So why aren’t they doing it like them?  The thought lies near that we are in for another round of autocratic rule.

Other Links

In Pictures: Ten years of war in Afghanistan

A drinker's guide to Islam (oh the irony)

The Battle for Sirte

Berlin plans airlift for wounded Libyans

Protesters attack TV station over film Persepolis (great film, watch it!)

Of Mosques, Fossil Fuels, and Evil Masterminds

Welcome back to this week’s edition of Pragmatic Realism.  If you are new to the blog, I hope that I can catch your interest to what is happening in the Middle East, and if you are returning, I hope that my honest and critical analysis has sparked some kind of interest in you that will keep you coming in the future. 

Let me start this week’s post with a little personal aside, just like I did last week’s.  One of the things that made my week was that Tunisian acquaintance I made in Zurich, Switzerland, got back to me over email almost three months after our brief encounter at the Youth Hostel there.  It was great to hear how he is doing back in Tunis and it feels good to know that some people do indeed hold to their word and care about another despite the fact that they might not see each other for years to come and that they might not even live on the same continent.  I am sure he will have much to tell me once the first Tunisian elections since the Jasmine Revolution get on their way on October 23^rd.

Topics I will cover this week are the importance of mosques in the Syrian uprisings, tensions over natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean, and the sudden demise of Anwar al-Awlaki.  As always I will add some of the links I did not get a chance to comment on to the end of my post.

God is Great, and so are his Holy Places

Al Jazeera’s reporter Nir Rosen just returned from Syria in the past weeks and has given some great insight into what is happening behind the scenes in Syria.  An interview with him can be viewed here.  Ever since the beginning of the uprisings in Syria over six months ago, the country has been closed off to foreign media and coverage on what is happening in the country has been sparse at best.  This is why Nir Rosen’s account is so crucial because it is one of the few first hand accounts to come out of the country.

One of Rosen’s main points is that the mosques in the country actually serve as the main rallying points in the uprising since the government has blocked off all the main squares and other public places.  So what to use if there is no Tharir Square (like in Egypt) available to stage anti-government protests?  Go to a place that is outside of the jurisdiction of the state, but that can still accommodate a great quantity of people, like a mosque.  There is little the government can do to storm these holy places without loosing the little legitimacy that they might still hold in the eyes of the population.  That being said, mosques are used both by Sunni Muslims and Shiite Alawites who either protest against or for the government respectively.  “Allahu Akbar” or God is Great, as they commonly say in the MENA.  God is great, and so are his holy places, because their legitimacy fracturing characteristic can serve as the stepping stone for a successful uprising in Syria.

Stirring Up an Old Fire to Fuel the Future of Fossil Fuels

The age old feud between Greece and Turkey about which country is the greatest on the Aegean Sea is about to go into the next round with the discovery of natural gas reserves off the coast of Cyprus.  With reserves of hydrocarbons “worth billions of dollars” right off the shore of Cyprus, the unresolved conflict over the island, which was started in 1974 when Turkish troops invaded the small island state, enters a new stage in which Greece and Turkey have to contend with a third interested party, Israel, over who can lay claim to the newly found resources.  The stakes are high since the winner in this new regional power battle will able to dominate the future European market for natural gas. 

Will this new development lead the leaders of northern Turkish Cyprus and southern Greek Cyprus to finally reconcile or will it drive them apart?  With Israeli F-15 and Turkish F-16 playing war-games in the airspace above gunboats guarding exploration ships this seems very unlikely.  Rather this should be viewed as another venue in which Israel and Turkey can contend for regional hegemony.  Restoring relations between Turkey and Israel just became more difficult than it already has been in light of the Israeli blockade of Gaza and the casualties that the two nations have already inflicted on each other during the 2010 Gaza flotilla raid.

Lawless Killing or Righteous Act?

The death of Anwar al-Awlaki, the infamous American-Yemeni preacher who was associated with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), on Friday the 30^th of September has had a tremendous domestic American and international impact.  Is it right of the President to authorize the killing on sight of an American citizen?  If we review the works of al-Awlaki as The Guardian does in this obituary, we can see that the “assassination” of an American citizen by American forces can be argued without a doubt.  Yet, who am I to judge what has been done?  What interests me is how this will play out on the future War on Terror, the Yemeni uprising (which I sadly haven’t really had a chance to cover), and the extension of President Obama’s term.  

The “paradox” that Anwar al-Awlaki was as a dual citizen of the US and Yemen, was truly unique.  He, as opposed to others in the Al-Qaeda network, knew what he was preaching hate against in detail since he grew up exposed to American culture.  The greatness of his loss to Al-Qaeda just shows the importance that his demise carries for Western governments who have had to deal with those individuals inspired by his cries for jihad.  It will be hard to replace such a unique individual like him, but we should not forget that there has been other American citizens, most notoriously Adam Gadahn (nicknamed “Azzam the American”), who have decided to betray their country and commit violence against innocents.

Much of Yemen’s argument for continued financial support was based on its alleged hunt for terrorists in the country.  Now that the most wanted terrorist located in the country has been hunted down and killed, there is little that President Saleh can do or say to keep the US from cutting off funds (especially given the cuts in spending that our government should do).  Al-Awlaki’s death will hopefully lead to the fall of another dictator that has failed to address Yemen’s water scarcity and increasing financial burdens due to decreasing revenue from oil sales.

Another terrorist dead under President Obama’s watch, if that does not silence those war hawks out there then I do not know what will.  With little success at home negotiating with an ever divided House of Representatives over decreasing the deficit and paying off some of the countries debt, his foreign record needs to shine if he wants to pull a win in the upcoming elections. 

God bless America for making the world a saver place!

Other Links

Campaigning begins for landmark elections in Tunisia

Iran rejects two-state solution for Palestine

Gaddafi graffiti speaks volume in Tripoli (This one is great!)

The Haqqani Network: Snake Country

Denmark becomes first country to slap "fat tax" on food products

A Kingdom in Transition, Political Organizations suddenly threatened, and an Authority's desire for Recognition

I just returned earlier today from volunteering at a local Jewish Community Center.  Besides being able to help with parking for two huge events that were held there today, I was able to help the center run an entertainment station for the kids that were present.  It was good working with people who have such close ties to their home country in the Middle East.  I learned though that it is so crucial not to associate the news coming out of the region with those that might have roots in the region but do not necessarily live there.  Looking at the Israeli flag flying next to the American one, I could not help but think of the Palestinian bid for full statehood at the UN earlier this week.  More on that a little later though.  This week I will try to focus my approach a little more and pick quality over quantity of analysis.  Some of the links I was not able to cover in detail, but that I think are important nonetheless can be found at the bottom of the post.

More Rights, Yeah Just Kidding

Earlier today the BBC published an article outlining the newly acquired right of women to finally vote and run in elections in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This was seen by many as a great step towards more rights for women in this very conservative society.  Let’s view this through the pragmatic idealist lens though.  Saudi Arabia just in the past decade introduced municipal level elections in an attempt to appease the masses call for more freedoms.  Yet, how much freedom do you really enjoy when you only get to vote for half of the municipal council members and the other half is still appointed from Riyadh, the capital?  If women get to have part in this already semi-representational system that only includes municipal offices, it does not represent a great increase in the rights of women.  The article also outlines the fact that women will now be allowed to serve on the King’s advisory council called the Shura Council.  Yet again, this might sound like great news, but let’s take a peak across the Persian Gulf and see how women’s participation has worked out in other highly religious societies.  In Iran women are allowed to serve in state offices as high as the ministerial level.  However, and this is where the catch is, those who are “selected” to serve are so pro status quo that they essentially have no impact on improving women’s rights further.  So does this mean that the changes in suffrage and municipal elections in Saudi Arabia are a positive development?  Yeah, I would say so, but I would not be too quick to praise this as an outstanding development when it is too easy to fill those new positions on the municipal and Shura level with conservative/brainwashed females.  As always we will have to see how this new framework will actually be put to use by the King and the people.

Past the State Level

Deutsche Welle had a great article that gave a good look into the consequences that Bashar Al-Assad’s crackdown in Syria might have on regional power politics including sub-state actors.  According to them, Syria is so deeply intertwined with Hezbollah, the predominant Shiite Islamist movement in Lebanon, and Hamas, the officially elected Sunni Islamist movement in Gaza, that if the Syrian regime goes down, the reputation and future of Hezbollah and Hamas might be threatened.  Both Hezbollah and Hamas are listed as terrorist organizations by the US and the EU.  So if looked at it from the angle of this sub-state actor power play, the current length and intensity of the uprisings in Syria might actually help to topple not just the reign of a dictator, but also the influence of two very powerful, terrorist organizations in the region.

Both the BBC and Al-Jazeera English had articles about Turkey’s worsening ties with Syria.  PM Erdogan and the rest of the leadership of Turkey has grown increasingly frustrated with the Syrian regime’s crackdown and has now promised to intercept any arms on the way to Syria that are in transit through Turkish waters or airspace.  The policies that PM Erdogan has been pursuing are a personal obsession of mine.  The Realpolitik he pursues in his attempt to move Turkey in the position of regional hegemony is impressive.  His policies are unique in that they are aimed towards winning the hearts and minds of the people living within the borders of neighboring states, not the hearts and minds of its oftentimes questionable leaders.  This long-term thinking will pay off as populations replace their leaders with more legitimate regimes.  Anyone know where I can get a poster of this guy? Anyways, moving on to the next topic.

In a Perfect World

Let’s stop for a second and think about a world where the UN actually serves as the Parliament of Man, able to grant membership and thus statehood to anyone it saw fit to join its ranks. Palestine could be granted membership and the Palestine-Israeli Crisis would be resolved.  Easy as that (besides of course negotiations that would have to follow the granting of membership about territory).  Someone once said, that the UN is only as strong as its members want it to be, and the members do not at this point want it to be strong enough to create a new state even though they previously gave the UN those powers with the creation of the State of Israel in 1948.  Both BBC and Al-Jazeera English showcased the proceedings that took place this week with the opening of the 66^th session of the General Assembly in New York City.  After officially handing in the paperwork for the request for full membership of the Palestinian Authority in power in the West Bank by its leader Mahmoud Abbas, he went on to defend Palestine’s right to full membership with the words: “"I do not believe that anyone with a shred of conscience can reject our application for a full membership in the United Nations and our admission as an independent state.”  Yet, the international system is not ready for the UN to grant statehood (again), especially when some international actors like the United States, see this move as an attempt to escape the stalled peace negotiations.  As much as I would like to see the suffering of the Palestinian people end, I do think that people with a “shred of conscience” can reject the Palestinian application for full membership.  Anyone with a shred of conscience would agree peace is the final solution in the Middle East and that sudden full Palestinian membership in the UN would not lead to peace between the Israelis and Palestinians (especially as long as Hamas is still in power in Gaza, but as explained earlier that might change soon too).  Nevertheless, if the Palestinian request for full membership is viewed as legitimate, but still a little premature by the international community Mahmoud Abbas has already won a significant victory for the Palestinian people.  This move will hopefully put more pressure on the Israeli PM Netanyahu and spark new interest in the resolving of this conflict that has almost been around as long as this (still) imperfect Parliament of Man has.

Other Links

China buys gold, challenges US dollar

Feeling Jerusalem

Defiant Ahmadinejad prompts UN walkout (yet again)

A Proper State Already

US hikers land in New York after two years in Iranian jail

UK operations in Libya: the full costs broken down