A game of hangman and how the Soviets are screwing Syria

I finally got a chance to visit the 9/11 memorial (after my fraternity held a fundraiser for them earlier last year).  In my opinion, the place fails to really evoke the kind of sadness and memory that any memorial about such a disastrous event should.  Somewhere between the long wait to get in, the freezing cold, and the construction that is still going on around the memorial the compassion for all those that lost a family member that day is lost.  Hopefully, once the construction for the new World Trade Center is over, the memorial will finally fulfill its purpose, even though it will still be hard to find a moment of silence to commemorate the victims of 9/11 in the middle of the financial district.  For pictures check out this blog (it is in German, but hey pictures are pictures).

This week: Tightening the noose around each others neck, and why the Soviet Union matters in 2012.

Iran and the West: A game of hangman

Iran has warned its regional partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that it would have severe consequences if any of them were to fill the shortfall of oil supply on the world market that is sure to follow the sanctions to be imposed by the United States and the EU on the country. The threat to other exporters (particularly Saudi Arabia) comes during a time where Western countries have once again reiterated their will to keep “all options on the table” (i.e. military action/invasion) when it comes to addressing the Iranian nuclear threat.  It is easy to forget that the real losers are the people of Iran that can do little to depose of the illegitimate regime that has chosen to exclude the majority of its own population from politics to eliminate the risk of being voted out of office.

To turn the sanctions put in place against Iran on its head and make the US and the EU suffer for their attempts to hinder the progress of their nuclear program seems to be one of the smartest moves coming out of Tehran so far.  The decrease in oil supply (and the rise in prices for oil), will only serve as encouragement for Saudi Arabia to churn out more oil.  Not only does it make more petrodollars on the barrel, but it also hurts its biggest opponent in the region, Shia Iran, by showing that the world market for oil could easily survive without it.  No threat will help to stop Saudi Arabia from picking up the slack that Iran will leave in terms of oil output.  The “invisible hand” as Adam Smith would say, will take care that there will be ample supply despite Iran’s loss. 

Let me say this again, it is time for the West to act!  You want to make sure Iran will be a responsible player once it gains nuclear capabilities then either do what you do best (or rather worst) and change the regime in Tehran or deliver on your promises and take military action.  Even better, solve two problems at once and support the people of Iran in their quest to get their voice heard in the Iranian political arena.  The West and Iran might be tightening the noose around each others neck, but the only ones that will hang by the end of the day are the people of Iran.

A Soviet remnant

As the last remnant of the global influence that the Soviet Union once had past its borders, the naval base at Tartus in Syria stands as controversial as ever in the uprising that still dominates Syria in the tenth month of violence.  President Assad of Syria is slowly losing the reigns in his own country (similar to Muammar Gaddafi last year) between continuous revolts and the force of the Free Syrian Army operating out of Turkey.  It seems so bad that he even moved to pardon those imprisoned during the uprisings (among them violent protesters and key leaders of the opposition).  Meanwhile, a military intervention sanctioned by Arab countries seems unlikely even tough Qatar’s leader, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, has voiced his believes that military intervention is the only option to stop the continuing bloodshed of the Syrian government against its own people.

How to keep your last naval base outside of the former Soviet Union? That’s the question that Russia is asking itself right now.  Where to get someone who can predict the future?  If Russia supports Assad’s regime like it has and the revolutionaries finally pull through and establish a new political order in Syria, the future for the base at Tartus seems short-lived.  When has the time come to support the opponents of the current regime?  Russia could play a crucial role in ending the bloodshed that has already cost 5000 lives and it could keep its naval base at Tartus.  All it has to do is to herald the cause of the Syrian people in the Security Council, where it could act to encourage other Arab leaders like the Qatari Sheikh to intervene in this conflict that is on the verge of civil war.

Other Links

Mohamed El-Baradei will end Egypt presidency bid

Iraq city of Ramidi hit by attacks on police station

Hezbollah chief rejects call by UN to disarm

Hamas to return to Abbas’ seized Gaza house

Saudi forces clash with protesters in Qatif

A Nod to the Past and Fear for the Future

Happy Thanksgiving!  Well, Happy Thanksgiving three days ahead of time.  I on my part can’t wait to stuff myself and spend the rest of the weekend digesting and complaining about what a bad idea it was to have eaten so much food.  More importantly though I hope that Black Friday will serve as a good indicator for an economy that is still on a recovery track.  Every dollar spent increases demand which helps create jobs.  So get out there and take advantage of those Black Friday Deals, because after all, “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

This week I will discuss the renewed protests that have sprung up in Egypt’s Tahrir Square this past weekend, and I will also give a little recap of how the revolution in Libya has affected neighboring countries.

1952/2011

Protesters are once again crowded into Tahrir Square, Cairo’s main thoroughfare, in a response to a draft document that gives guidelines for the constitution that is soon to be drafted.  Under the guidelines, the military as well as it’s budget would be exempt from civilian oversight.  Similar to the events that took place in New York City’s Zuccotti Park, Tahrir Square was cleared of all protesters and tents and banners were removed.  Yet, the methods by which protesters were evicted differed greatly, as military police used tear gas and rubber bullets (fired at head height) to disperse the crowd.  Concerns are now growing among many Egyptians that the current military council has hijacked the revolution, reminiscent of the coup d’etat of the Free Officer's Movement in 1952.

When Gamal Abdel Nasser and his Free Officers (among them Anwar al-Sadat and Hosni Mubarak) smashed the previous political system almost sixty years ago, they took it upon themselves to set the foundation for an Egyptian political system.  The system they hoped would pay less attention to their quasi-colonizer Britain, and more attention to the needs of the Egyptian people (especially peasants and other members of the lower class).  Their plans were noble and altruistic, but the system that they created paralyzed Egypt socio-economically and led to the circumcision of all political movements to empower the single most powerful party, the National Democratic Party (NDP).  What is different between 1952 and 2011 is that the military council in control now (Free Officers in 1952/Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in 2011) is that the Supreme Council (SCAF) does not have a foreign power that it can blame to gain widespread political support.  With the guidelines for the new constitution proposed by the SCAF it cannot be out ruled that the military is planning on an undemocratic future.  It is crucial to keep in mind that one of the conditions for a truly democratic political system is the control of civilians over the military.  This is something the council clearly opposes.  So once again, the people of Egypt have all the rights in the world to crowd Tahrir Square and protest for a future that allows the people of Egypt to be represented accurately.

Libya’s relations to the Desert

Now that Gaddafi is gone and Libya is on its way towards a new political reality, it has to be careful that it does not fall under the hands of an outside regional power like Saudi Arabia in the case of Lebanon, or Iran in the case of Iraq.  Qatar seems to be a good candidate for becoming a patron trying to influence domestic politics in Libya according to The Economist.  Meanwhile, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, was captured dressed up as a camel herder outside of Zintan where he will receive his trial.  The danger of high-tech weaponry escaping the country into Mali, Niger, and Chad is now present as Tuareg rebels, formerly supported by Gaddafi, take the guns they acquired during the revolution back to their countries of origin.  Guest workers from Niger are now also left without a source of income which will greatly reduce the amount of remittances sent back to this poor African state.

The phenomenon of having a patron state seems to become more and more common.  Not only does Libya seem to slowly fall into Qatar’s “sphere of influence,” but Turkey has also shown interests in establishing a no-fly zone over a Syria in turmoil (see the link in the “Other Link” section below).  Foreign influences in the region need to be contained as countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey become more and more dominant.  According to some international critics, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi should get a trial in The Hague.  As mentioned in an earlier article of mine, I do support that Saif should be tried in Libya.  Maybe he will get the death penalty, but if it helps forge a tighter knit Libyan society, then Saif might have to be the sacrifice to achieve that state of relative peacefulness.  It is sad how the African continent is often brushed aside in importance.  The impact of the Libyan revolution is indeed very grave and could lead to instability in Mali, Niger, and Chad since Tuareg rebels gained new arms in the Libyan conflict earlier this year.  Hopefully, Libya will play an equally as important role in employing guest workers as it did before the revolution and hopefully, it will do a better job than the previous regime in appeasing the Tuaregs and making them fit into their respective societies.

Other Links

Arab League rejects Syrian demand to change peace plan

Protesters storm Kuwaiti parliament

Iran 'influenced' Iraq over US troops' exit

Palestinian president to seek unity government with Hamas

Syrian rebels attack Ba'ath party offices in Damascus