Welcome back to this week’s edition of Pragmatic Realism. If you are new to the blog, I hope that I can catch your interest to what is happening in the Middle East, and if you are returning, I hope that my honest and critical analysis has sparked some kind of interest in you that will keep you coming in the future.
Let me start this week’s post with a little personal aside, just like I did last week’s. One of the things that made my week was that Tunisian acquaintance I made in Zurich, Switzerland, got back to me over email almost three months after our brief encounter at the Youth Hostel there. It was great to hear how he is doing back in Tunis and it feels good to know that some people do indeed hold to their word and care about another despite the fact that they might not see each other for years to come and that they might not even live on the same continent. I am sure he will have much to tell me once the first Tunisian elections since the Jasmine Revolution get on their way on October 23rd.
Topics I will cover this week are the importance of mosques in the Syrian uprisings, tensions over natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean, and the sudden demise of Anwar al-Awlaki. As always I will add some of the links I did not get a chance to comment on to the end of my post.
God is Great, and so are his Holy Places
Al Jazeera’s reporter Nir Rosen just returned from Syria in the past weeks and has given some great insight into what is happening behind the scenes in Syria. An interview with him can be viewed here. Ever since the beginning of the uprisings in Syria over six months ago, the country has been closed off to foreign media and coverage on what is happening in the country has been sparse at best. This is why Nir Rosen’s account is so crucial because it is one of the few first hand accounts to come out of the country.
One of Rosen’s main points is that the mosques in the country actually serve as the main rallying points in the uprising since the government has blocked off all the main squares and other public places. So what to use if there is no Tharir Square (like in Egypt) available to stage anti-government protests? Go to a place that is outside of the jurisdiction of the state, but that can still accommodate a great quantity of people, like a mosque. There is little the government can do to storm these holy places without loosing the little legitimacy that they might still hold in the eyes of the population. That being said, mosques are used both by Sunni Muslims and Shiite Alawites who either protest against or for the government respectively. “Allahu Akbar” or God is Great, as they commonly say in the MENA. God is great, and so are his holy places, because their legitimacy fracturing characteristic can serve as the stepping stone for a successful uprising in Syria.
Stirring Up an Old Fire to Fuel the Future of Fossil Fuels
The age old feud between Greece and Turkey about which country is the greatest on the Aegean Sea is about to go into the next round with the discovery of natural gas reserves off the coast of Cyprus. With reserves of hydrocarbons “worth billions of dollars” right off the shore of Cyprus, the unresolved conflict over the island, which was started in 1974 when Turkish troops invaded the small island state, enters a new stage in which Greece and Turkey have to contend with a third interested party, Israel, over who can lay claim to the newly found resources. The stakes are high since the winner in this new regional power battle will able to dominate the future European market for natural gas.
Will this new development lead the leaders of northern Turkish Cyprus and southern Greek Cyprus to finally reconcile or will it drive them apart? With Israeli F-15 and Turkish F-16 playing war-games in the airspace above gunboats guarding exploration ships this seems very unlikely. Rather this should be viewed as another venue in which Israel and Turkey can contend for regional hegemony. Restoring relations between Turkey and Israel just became more difficult than it already has been in light of the Israeli blockade of Gaza and the casualties that the two nations have already inflicted on each other during the 2010 Gaza flotilla raid.
Lawless Killing or Righteous Act?
The death of Anwar al-Awlaki, the infamous American-Yemeni preacher who was associated with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), on Friday the 30th of September has had a tremendous domestic American and international impact. Is it right of the President to authorize the killing on sight of an American citizen? If we review the works of al-Awlaki as The Guardian does in this obituary, we can see that the “assassination” of an American citizen by American forces can be argued without a doubt. Yet, who am I to judge what has been done? What interests me is how this will play out on the future War on Terror, the Yemeni uprising (which I sadly haven’t really had a chance to cover), and the extension of President Obama’s term.
The “paradox” that Anwar al-Awlaki was as a dual citizen of the US and Yemen, was truly unique. He, as opposed to others in the Al-Qaeda network, knew what he was preaching hate against in detail since he grew up exposed to American culture. The greatness of his loss to Al-Qaeda just shows the importance that his demise carries for Western governments who have had to deal with those individuals inspired by his cries for jihad. It will be hard to replace such a unique individual like him, but we should not forget that there has been other American citizens, most notoriously Adam Gadahn (nicknamed “Azzam the American”), who have decided to betray their country and commit violence against innocents.
Much of Yemen’s argument for continued financial support was based on its alleged hunt for terrorists in the country. Now that the most wanted terrorist located in the country has been hunted down and killed, there is little that President Saleh can do or say to keep the US from cutting off funds (especially given the cuts in spending that our government should do). Al-Awlaki’s death will hopefully lead to the fall of another dictator that has failed to address Yemen’s water scarcity and increasing financial burdens due to decreasing revenue from oil sales.
Another terrorist dead under President Obama’s watch, if that does not silence those war hawks out there then I do not know what will. With little success at home negotiating with an ever divided House of Representatives over decreasing the deficit and paying off some of the countries debt, his foreign record needs to shine if he wants to pull a win in the upcoming elections.
God bless America for making the world a saver place!
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