A game of hangman and how the Soviets are screwing Syria

I finally got a chance to visit the 9/11 memorial (after my fraternity held a fundraiser for them earlier last year).  In my opinion, the place fails to really evoke the kind of sadness and memory that any memorial about such a disastrous event should.  Somewhere between the long wait to get in, the freezing cold, and the construction that is still going on around the memorial the compassion for all those that lost a family member that day is lost.  Hopefully, once the construction for the new World Trade Center is over, the memorial will finally fulfill its purpose, even though it will still be hard to find a moment of silence to commemorate the victims of 9/11 in the middle of the financial district.  For pictures check out this blog (it is in German, but hey pictures are pictures).

This week: Tightening the noose around each others neck, and why the Soviet Union matters in 2012.

Iran and the West: A game of hangman

Iran has warned its regional partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that it would have severe consequences if any of them were to fill the shortfall of oil supply on the world market that is sure to follow the sanctions to be imposed by the United States and the EU on the country. The threat to other exporters (particularly Saudi Arabia) comes during a time where Western countries have once again reiterated their will to keep “all options on the table” (i.e. military action/invasion) when it comes to addressing the Iranian nuclear threat.  It is easy to forget that the real losers are the people of Iran that can do little to depose of the illegitimate regime that has chosen to exclude the majority of its own population from politics to eliminate the risk of being voted out of office.

To turn the sanctions put in place against Iran on its head and make the US and the EU suffer for their attempts to hinder the progress of their nuclear program seems to be one of the smartest moves coming out of Tehran so far.  The decrease in oil supply (and the rise in prices for oil), will only serve as encouragement for Saudi Arabia to churn out more oil.  Not only does it make more petrodollars on the barrel, but it also hurts its biggest opponent in the region, Shia Iran, by showing that the world market for oil could easily survive without it.  No threat will help to stop Saudi Arabia from picking up the slack that Iran will leave in terms of oil output.  The “invisible hand” as Adam Smith would say, will take care that there will be ample supply despite Iran’s loss. 

Let me say this again, it is time for the West to act!  You want to make sure Iran will be a responsible player once it gains nuclear capabilities then either do what you do best (or rather worst) and change the regime in Tehran or deliver on your promises and take military action.  Even better, solve two problems at once and support the people of Iran in their quest to get their voice heard in the Iranian political arena.  The West and Iran might be tightening the noose around each others neck, but the only ones that will hang by the end of the day are the people of Iran.

A Soviet remnant

As the last remnant of the global influence that the Soviet Union once had past its borders, the naval base at Tartus in Syria stands as controversial as ever in the uprising that still dominates Syria in the tenth month of violence.  President Assad of Syria is slowly losing the reigns in his own country (similar to Muammar Gaddafi last year) between continuous revolts and the force of the Free Syrian Army operating out of Turkey.  It seems so bad that he even moved to pardon those imprisoned during the uprisings (among them violent protesters and key leaders of the opposition).  Meanwhile, a military intervention sanctioned by Arab countries seems unlikely even tough Qatar’s leader, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, has voiced his believes that military intervention is the only option to stop the continuing bloodshed of the Syrian government against its own people.

How to keep your last naval base outside of the former Soviet Union? That’s the question that Russia is asking itself right now.  Where to get someone who can predict the future?  If Russia supports Assad’s regime like it has and the revolutionaries finally pull through and establish a new political order in Syria, the future for the base at Tartus seems short-lived.  When has the time come to support the opponents of the current regime?  Russia could play a crucial role in ending the bloodshed that has already cost 5000 lives and it could keep its naval base at Tartus.  All it has to do is to herald the cause of the Syrian people in the Security Council, where it could act to encourage other Arab leaders like the Qatari Sheikh to intervene in this conflict that is on the verge of civil war.

Other Links

Mohamed El-Baradei will end Egypt presidency bid

Iraq city of Ramidi hit by attacks on police station

Hezbollah chief rejects call by UN to disarm

Hamas to return to Abbas’ seized Gaza house

Saudi forces clash with protesters in Qatif

Viva la revolucion and almost nine years for what?

Finally done with all the work for this semester.  Phew.  With the twenty page first half of my research paper about the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, I finished off my last assignment and can now relax a little before the last semester starts.  Too bad that the cold is going around and I am so congested that my head feels like it is about to explode.  Anyways, I wish you all happy holidays as we move towards the end of the year.

Today I am talking about the continued violence in Cairo, and the (final) withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Keeping it sweet and short for the sake of my head.

Oh yeah and Kim Jong-Il just died.. Hopefully that'll change some things in North Korea.

Revolutionaries that act like counter-revolutionaries

For a third day in a row violence continues at Tahrir Square and its surrounding streets in Cairo.  Ten people have been reported dead and many more injured as police moved into the square to evacuate protesters and to burn down tents (sounds a little like Occupy Wall Street in NYC to me). The government claims that the protesters in Tahrir are counter-revolutionaries and do not belong to the same group that brought about Mubarak’s fall. The protesters claim to demonstrate against the military council that still has much of Egyptian politics under its control.

How can you define a revolutionary versus a counter-revolutionary in a country in which there is no status quo to revolt against?  To move in violently, and even shoot at protesters (see the Al-Jazeera link above) is certainly not a proportional response to non-violent protesters. However, to burn down the Institute of Egypt like the protesters did is not right either. The current government should allow the right for peaceful protest and should address the concern voiced by the population about the power that the military still has in the current power structure.  If the government and the military council do not do so soon, there will be protests well into next year until a parliament is finally elected and the drafting of a new constitution can begin.

"Aaaaaand they’re gone (finally)"

After more than eight years the last US troops finally crossed the border into Kuwait where they closed a metaphorical gate behind them and shook hands with the Kuwaitis for some pictures.  The mission in Iraq cost the US 1 trillion dollars.  According Gary Younge, a columnist for The Guardian, it is a shame that the United States probably won’t learn much from their time in Iraq.  The deed is done, the mission is over, it was a failure, and therefore most will try to forget the sacrifices that were made for eight years to achieve close to nothing.  Meanwhile, Iraq is still stuck in its sectarian quagmire that shows no sign of resolution.  Even in the highest echelons of power there are bomb threats against the Shia minority that forms part of the coalition that rules the country. 

The Iraqi government has been busy collecting data on Iraqis that worked with the Americans while they were still in the country.  Now that the American soldiers are gone there is little protection offered to those who “betrayed” their country.  Many have waited for their visa to the US for months, but most of them are still pending.  Most of the Iraqis that are affected fear that the information gathered by the government will leak to armed groups that will then assassinate all those that collaborated with the foreigners.

Personally, I hope that the money that is saved by leaving Iraq will ultimately help the United States to recuperate from its own economic problems.  Now that we have left the country it is important to convince the PM of Iraq to view Iran as an intruding power that wishes to heavily influence Iraqi politics to solidify its position as a regional power against Saudi Arabia.  The sectarian violence seems to be a constant problem that cannot be solved.  A national campaign to engage in cross sectarian dialogue would help to alleviate some of the strains that threaten to rip the young democracy apart.  To put a bit of a positive spin on Iraq, I would say that at least they have a head start on their democratic project.  They have had years to set up their parliament and constitution whereas Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt are just starting to create their first “real” democracies.

Other Links

Tunisia unveils Bouazizi cart statue in Sidi Bouzid

Hamas moves away from violence in deal with Palestinian Authority

Eyewitness: tear gas at West Bank protest

Syria 'set to' sign Arab League plan

In Pictures: Tahrir Square burns

Winning polls and digging holes

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!  As finals week starts moving closer, its crunch time to get all of my research papers done for the semester.  I think there is nothing more exciting than reading a good book about international politics that covers a currently important topic that usually gets little attention.  One of my International Studies professors recently recommended a book to me to get a better understanding about the topic that I chose for my Bachelor thesis: Islamist Organizations in Egypt.  The Struggle for Egypt by Steven A. Cook has been a great read so far and I have to recommend it to anyone seriously interested in what is happening in Egypt right now.  The book gives a great understanding about the frustration that the Egyptian people have had for the past century and why they have come to demand their political and economic freedoms now.

Keeping in line with my little book recommendation I will be talking about the upcoming elections in Egypt, and the decision that the parliament of Iran has just made (yes, they do have a parliament believe it or not).

Was it hijacked or does it just need time?

The revolution that ended in the resignation of Hosni Mubarak on February 11^th, 2011, finally shows some fruit.  The people of Egypt will go to the polls today to vote in the first round of elections for members of the 508-member strong lower house of the Egyptian parliament.  However, continues protests are troubling the piece and quiet that is required to hold ordered elections. Current head of state, Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, has warned the Egyptian public that if the elections fail due to the violence that has been happening in places like Tahrir Square, there would be dangerous hurdles in the future.  Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken a backseat in the protests taking place in Tahrir, anticipating winning at least 25% of seats in the upcoming elections.  The Brothers’ passiveness in the protests against the current military junta has been viewed negatively by the Egyptian people who fear that the current military regime might cling to power.  Yet, “who will benefit from all the chaos?” The Economist asks.  Unfortunately, it does not seem as if the protesters in the streets will, since old political parties like the Wafd Party, the Freedom and Justice Party, and the Al-Tagmmu Party are likely to win at the polls.  None of those parties really represent the protesters in the street.  For more information on the technicalities of the elections please check out a very informative chart that Al Jazeera Online has released here and for more information on the parties participating in the elections please check out BBCs website here.

Personally, I am hopeful that the elections will go off smoothly.  Even though the protesters might not be represented directly by any of the parties, to have an election at all is a start.  A routine for parliamentary democracy needs to be established as soon as possible so that the military leadership can be replaced by a civilian one.  Once the civilian leadership is established, a party that represents the unemployed youth of Egypt can be voted into place.  The one thing that should be made sure is that no party gets voted into place that has limits to democracy on its agenda.

Digging a deeper hole for itself

After further sanctions to be imposed by the United Kingdom on Iran, the Parliament of Iran has voted to downgrade diplomatic ties from ambassadorial level to the level of charge d’affairs.  The move comes after the announcement of the UK treasury that Britain would cut all financial ties to the Central Bank of Iran.  This comes as a reaction to the IAEA report that directly linked the Iranian Central Bank to the financing of the nuclear program of the Persian state.  87% of the members of parliament voted in favor for the bill and the affirmative vote would have been even stronger if measures against the UK would have included even more severe measures like the closure of the UK embassy in Tehran .

As mentioned in the article by The Guardian above, Iran is only putting itself into deeper isolation in the world of international politics.  It has really come to the point where there is no need for sanctions anymore, because Iran feels so alienated that it will put itself in the corner.  Has the sanctions regime reached its goal?  Iran is still going for the nuke so I guess not, but at least it has reached a stage where Iran is an active supporter of the sanctions levied against it.

Other Links

Iran arrests 12 'CIA spies' for targeting nuclear plans

Yemeni President Saleh signs deal on ceding power

Arab League approves Syria sanctions

Saudi police on high alert

Moderate Islamists eclipse closest rivals in Moroccan elections