Forcing hands and loosening chains

The world of international studies is filled with indexes that attempt to give those unfamiliar with IR lingo a chance to understand in what direction certain countries or the planet as a whole are moving in terms of human development, equality, corruption, free press, etc.  The beauty of it all is of course that a numbered index can be abused to misrepresent what is actually happening.  The World Bank is probably case in point by trying to prove oh so hard that inequality is actually decreasing while in reality everyone (even us in the developed world) can witness an increase in inequality.  Anyways, the point I am trying to make here is that out of all the indexes I think one of the most interesting ones focuses on the number of times the word “recession” is used in the media.  If there is a correlation between “recession” and whether we find ourselves in a recession, shouldn’t there be a correlation between how many times Iran is mentioned across multiple news networks and how likely it is that the conflict with Iran will escalate?  I don’t know, just a thought because right now all I can see across the board is Iran, Iran, Iran.

That being said, this week will focus on (of course) Iran and on a review of the most important stories from 2011.  Happy New Years!!!

And another step closer

The semi-state controlled Fars News agency of Iran announced the past week that Iran had successfully tested mid-range surface-to-air missiles.  The test marks a milestone in Tehran’s quest for long-range missile capabilities to defend itself against what it deems US and Israeli aggression.  Ironically, the government denied the tests but issued a statement in which it stated that all kinds of missiles will be tested during the ten days of military exercises taking place in the Strait of Hormuz.  Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the US would succeed in pushing more sanctions against Iran’s oil and financial industries.

Okay how funny is it that an agency that is state influenced publishes something that goes strictly against the message the state is trying to send.  If that is not a sign of dysfunction in the Iranian propaganda machine then I don’t know what is.  On a more serious note it is concerning that Iran has developed mid-range capabilities.  Maybe President Bush was right to push so adamantly for a missile defense shield in the Czech Republic and Poland.  Of greater concern will be how to cope with an Iran that could close down the Strait of Hormuz and back up that blockade with a nuclear arsenal.  And this is not another case of a North Korean style rogue state.  Iran has got the oil and it has the tools to drive oil prices through the roof.  I am sure someone is willing to trade Iranian oil despite any kind of UN sanctions especially if Iran drives up the oil prices by closing the Strait (which sees 20% of world oil demand travel through it).  It will reach the point where there will be no other choice but to either force regime change in Tehran or to accept Iran for what it is and engage in open talks.  Pick your poison.

The highlights of 2011

I really recommend that all watch this short video (2:25) that shows the highlights of 2011.  The Times magazine was right to make “The Protester” the person of the year.  Tunisia not only sparked a revolution that swept through the Middle East and North Africa, but it also encouraged the Occupy protests around the world and some of the violence that took place in London and is still taking place in Athens over austerity measures.

I also want to take a second to commemorate the victims of the shootings in Norway.  Every time I see footage of that attack chills go down my spine.  To pick up the uniform of a policeman and to slaughter eighty individuals, most of them children, is such a personal and heinous crime that it must never be forgotten.  Norway lost its status as one of the most peaceful places in the world this year.  Shame on you Anders Breivik..

Other Links

Israelis and Palestinians to meet in Jordan

Iran's dangerous trade game

US pushes ahead with arms deal to Iraq

Cairo raids create climate of fear for NGOs

A Riche history

Iran and its lackeys

Merry Christmas to you all!  Hope you had a great time opening presents and sitting around the dinner table with your families.  It’s really a great time of the year to catch up with people and to celebrate to have each other.  A shame that that this holiday has become so commercial.  I think the best gift I got/gave was to call my guest mother in Switzerland.  We were both so happy to hear from each other.  It should really be the small things in life that matter, not a new laptop or a new pair of shoes.  Who really cares if you can buy those same things at any other given point in the year?

This week I’m going to focus on two stories that weren’t really featured across all the new websites I use as sources here.  Even though they could be described as ‘fringe’ stories they are nonetheless important.  Both of the stories relate to (who would have guessed) Iran.

Appeasement

Iran will hold military exercises in international waters around the Strait of Hormuz to show its defense capabilities during a time in which it has received much criticism from around the world for its nuclear program.  With the US 5^th fleet based in the Persian Gulf which can only be accessed through the Strait of Hormuz the exercise can be seen as an act of defiance against US sanctions that aim to cripple the state of Iran and its Revolutionary Guards which have been directly linked to the nuclear program of the country.  To top everything off, the Strait of Hormuz sees a third of the worlds oil supply travel through it on a yearly basis.

I used to think that liking Ahmadinejad and Iran to Hitler and the Third Reich was a very morbid and stupid comparison.  The former had done nothing comparable to the latter (yet) and Iran certainly did not show the same behavior that Germany did during the mid-1930s.  Well, with the war games and military exercises that clearly seem to tell the US “hey, look at us, we don’t care about your griefing,” Iran has done the deed and shown the US the international “bring it on” on a whole other level.  Appeasement like it happened in the 1930s is not an option to the US and Israel.  Yet what are they going to do?  Maybe support domestic uprisings against the Ayatollah and his regime?  Or rather accept Iran for what it is and stop giving it the attention it clearly tries to get internationally?

Connecting the dots

The Lebanese-Canadian Bank has been linked to money laundering funds for Hezbollah.  Allegedly, the bank launders money that is earned from South American drug sales, blood diamonds, and used car sales that mostly go trough Africa to reach both the American and European markets.  The investigation by the United States started in 2006 after the Lebanon War that aimed to weaken Hezbollah’s influence in the border region.

This story is nothing but a wake-up call for those who believed that all the illegal activity that takes place around the globe is regional.  Illegal business, just like legal business, is very much globalized and has to care even less about regulations set by states due to its very nature.  The funding of radical organizations like Hezbollah is just another reason to put an end to the drug violence taking place in Middle and South America, and to ensure the blood diamonds are no longer bought by diamond traders that service the developed world.

Other Links

Baghdad blasts: Hashemi accuses government over attacks

Lockerbie bomber protests innocence in 'last' interview

Arab Spring quiz of the year 2011 (this one is impossible)

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh to go to US

A troubled farewell

Viva la revolucion and almost nine years for what?

Finally done with all the work for this semester.  Phew.  With the twenty page first half of my research paper about the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, I finished off my last assignment and can now relax a little before the last semester starts.  Too bad that the cold is going around and I am so congested that my head feels like it is about to explode.  Anyways, I wish you all happy holidays as we move towards the end of the year.

Today I am talking about the continued violence in Cairo, and the (final) withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Keeping it sweet and short for the sake of my head.

Oh yeah and Kim Jong-Il just died.. Hopefully that'll change some things in North Korea.

Revolutionaries that act like counter-revolutionaries

For a third day in a row violence continues at Tahrir Square and its surrounding streets in Cairo.  Ten people have been reported dead and many more injured as police moved into the square to evacuate protesters and to burn down tents (sounds a little like Occupy Wall Street in NYC to me). The government claims that the protesters in Tahrir are counter-revolutionaries and do not belong to the same group that brought about Mubarak’s fall. The protesters claim to demonstrate against the military council that still has much of Egyptian politics under its control.

How can you define a revolutionary versus a counter-revolutionary in a country in which there is no status quo to revolt against?  To move in violently, and even shoot at protesters (see the Al-Jazeera link above) is certainly not a proportional response to non-violent protesters. However, to burn down the Institute of Egypt like the protesters did is not right either. The current government should allow the right for peaceful protest and should address the concern voiced by the population about the power that the military still has in the current power structure.  If the government and the military council do not do so soon, there will be protests well into next year until a parliament is finally elected and the drafting of a new constitution can begin.

"Aaaaaand they’re gone (finally)"

After more than eight years the last US troops finally crossed the border into Kuwait where they closed a metaphorical gate behind them and shook hands with the Kuwaitis for some pictures.  The mission in Iraq cost the US 1 trillion dollars.  According Gary Younge, a columnist for The Guardian, it is a shame that the United States probably won’t learn much from their time in Iraq.  The deed is done, the mission is over, it was a failure, and therefore most will try to forget the sacrifices that were made for eight years to achieve close to nothing.  Meanwhile, Iraq is still stuck in its sectarian quagmire that shows no sign of resolution.  Even in the highest echelons of power there are bomb threats against the Shia minority that forms part of the coalition that rules the country. 

The Iraqi government has been busy collecting data on Iraqis that worked with the Americans while they were still in the country.  Now that the American soldiers are gone there is little protection offered to those who “betrayed” their country.  Many have waited for their visa to the US for months, but most of them are still pending.  Most of the Iraqis that are affected fear that the information gathered by the government will leak to armed groups that will then assassinate all those that collaborated with the foreigners.

Personally, I hope that the money that is saved by leaving Iraq will ultimately help the United States to recuperate from its own economic problems.  Now that we have left the country it is important to convince the PM of Iraq to view Iran as an intruding power that wishes to heavily influence Iraqi politics to solidify its position as a regional power against Saudi Arabia.  The sectarian violence seems to be a constant problem that cannot be solved.  A national campaign to engage in cross sectarian dialogue would help to alleviate some of the strains that threaten to rip the young democracy apart.  To put a bit of a positive spin on Iraq, I would say that at least they have a head start on their democratic project.  They have had years to set up their parliament and constitution whereas Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt are just starting to create their first “real” democracies.

Other Links

Tunisia unveils Bouazizi cart statue in Sidi Bouzid

Hamas moves away from violence in deal with Palestinian Authority

Eyewitness: tear gas at West Bank protest

Syria 'set to' sign Arab League plan

In Pictures: Tahrir Square burns

Finals... Sad face.

With the final week of the semester ahead of me I have lots of writing assignments to complete.  This unfortunately means that I don't have time to write on the blog this week.  Make sure to check out the websites that are linked in the left column, or just click on the stories in the RSS news feed to the right.

See you next week!

Liars and Deceivers

 Happy December!  As Christmas is coming, the malls in the United States are sure to be filled to the brim with people who wish to fulfill each other’s commercial dreams.  In all honesty, why would you go out and spend several hundreds of dollars on a lucky guess of what the person you are buying the present for might actually want.  Just go ask they person what they would like or even better go shopping with them!  You are so much more likely to buy the right present and it will be less stressful than worrying about what someone might want.  Now that I got my Grinch out for the night let me tell you about this weeks topics.  First I am going to focus on Iran and it’s claims that it shot down a US drone and second I am going to give a little update on the elections that took place in Egypt last week.  Finals week is taking its toll slowly but surely.  I’ve already written so many pages today so please do not expect this blog to be high quality. 

Where is that drone?

Iran has claimed that it shot down a US drone on its eastern border after it briefly violated its airspace.  This is the third time that Iran has claimed to have shot down US drones.

The drone that was apparently shot down is a RQ170, the most modern of the drones used by the United States.  The drone uses technologies similar to the B2 bomber to decrease its radar detect ability.

I wouldn’t put it beyond Iran to lie about shooting down a United States drown just to make itself appear stronger during a time where its diplomatic ties with Europe are becoming rocky.  Yet, let’s assume that they actually shot it down.  If they really have this drone which was apparently barely scratched by its forces in the process of bringing it down and if they have the other four drones that they have shot down since January, it would be possible for Iran to reengineer a drone like the RQ170.  Would Israel be ready to defend itself against drones like the ones the United States has?  Time will tell.

No, Islamists are not necessarily bad

Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak is very disturbed about the first results from Monday’s elections in Egypt.  The moderate Islamist Muslim Brotherhood took a third of the vote, the conservative Islamist Nour Party took a fourth of the votes, and the liberal Egyptian party took about twenty percent in the first round of elections.  Fears are now high that the Muslim Brotherhood will combine forces in a coalition with the Nour party to form an Islamist government that would push a conservative Islamist agenda which would try to implement Shari’a law.

While the fears seem to be legitimate, I think that Israel worries for no reason.  Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood does have ties to Hamas, but that is only because they support the struggle of the Palestinians actively, not because they have any sort of terrorist intentions.  If the Muslim Brotherhood takes over parliament, which it most likely will, Egypt will be more proactive in pushing for Palestinian rights within the region.  And that is certainly not a bad thing in my opinion!  Nothing is set in stone as elections will conclude with the election of the upper house in March of next year.

Other Links


Hillary Clinton 'concerned over Israeli democracy'
The fate of Saif Gaddafi
Syria given 24 hours to sign Arab League deal or face sanctions
Still rich but no longer so calm
Two mullahs went into a bar...

Winning polls and digging holes

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!  As finals week starts moving closer, its crunch time to get all of my research papers done for the semester.  I think there is nothing more exciting than reading a good book about international politics that covers a currently important topic that usually gets little attention.  One of my International Studies professors recently recommended a book to me to get a better understanding about the topic that I chose for my Bachelor thesis: Islamist Organizations in Egypt.  The Struggle for Egypt by Steven A. Cook has been a great read so far and I have to recommend it to anyone seriously interested in what is happening in Egypt right now.  The book gives a great understanding about the frustration that the Egyptian people have had for the past century and why they have come to demand their political and economic freedoms now.

Keeping in line with my little book recommendation I will be talking about the upcoming elections in Egypt, and the decision that the parliament of Iran has just made (yes, they do have a parliament believe it or not).

Was it hijacked or does it just need time?

The revolution that ended in the resignation of Hosni Mubarak on February 11^th, 2011, finally shows some fruit.  The people of Egypt will go to the polls today to vote in the first round of elections for members of the 508-member strong lower house of the Egyptian parliament.  However, continues protests are troubling the piece and quiet that is required to hold ordered elections. Current head of state, Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, has warned the Egyptian public that if the elections fail due to the violence that has been happening in places like Tahrir Square, there would be dangerous hurdles in the future.  Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken a backseat in the protests taking place in Tahrir, anticipating winning at least 25% of seats in the upcoming elections.  The Brothers’ passiveness in the protests against the current military junta has been viewed negatively by the Egyptian people who fear that the current military regime might cling to power.  Yet, “who will benefit from all the chaos?” The Economist asks.  Unfortunately, it does not seem as if the protesters in the streets will, since old political parties like the Wafd Party, the Freedom and Justice Party, and the Al-Tagmmu Party are likely to win at the polls.  None of those parties really represent the protesters in the street.  For more information on the technicalities of the elections please check out a very informative chart that Al Jazeera Online has released here and for more information on the parties participating in the elections please check out BBCs website here.

Personally, I am hopeful that the elections will go off smoothly.  Even though the protesters might not be represented directly by any of the parties, to have an election at all is a start.  A routine for parliamentary democracy needs to be established as soon as possible so that the military leadership can be replaced by a civilian one.  Once the civilian leadership is established, a party that represents the unemployed youth of Egypt can be voted into place.  The one thing that should be made sure is that no party gets voted into place that has limits to democracy on its agenda.

Digging a deeper hole for itself

After further sanctions to be imposed by the United Kingdom on Iran, the Parliament of Iran has voted to downgrade diplomatic ties from ambassadorial level to the level of charge d’affairs.  The move comes after the announcement of the UK treasury that Britain would cut all financial ties to the Central Bank of Iran.  This comes as a reaction to the IAEA report that directly linked the Iranian Central Bank to the financing of the nuclear program of the Persian state.  87% of the members of parliament voted in favor for the bill and the affirmative vote would have been even stronger if measures against the UK would have included even more severe measures like the closure of the UK embassy in Tehran .

As mentioned in the article by The Guardian above, Iran is only putting itself into deeper isolation in the world of international politics.  It has really come to the point where there is no need for sanctions anymore, because Iran feels so alienated that it will put itself in the corner.  Has the sanctions regime reached its goal?  Iran is still going for the nuke so I guess not, but at least it has reached a stage where Iran is an active supporter of the sanctions levied against it.

Other Links

Iran arrests 12 'CIA spies' for targeting nuclear plans

Yemeni President Saleh signs deal on ceding power

Arab League approves Syria sanctions

Saudi police on high alert

Moderate Islamists eclipse closest rivals in Moroccan elections

A Nod to the Past and Fear for the Future

Happy Thanksgiving!  Well, Happy Thanksgiving three days ahead of time.  I on my part can’t wait to stuff myself and spend the rest of the weekend digesting and complaining about what a bad idea it was to have eaten so much food.  More importantly though I hope that Black Friday will serve as a good indicator for an economy that is still on a recovery track.  Every dollar spent increases demand which helps create jobs.  So get out there and take advantage of those Black Friday Deals, because after all, “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

This week I will discuss the renewed protests that have sprung up in Egypt’s Tahrir Square this past weekend, and I will also give a little recap of how the revolution in Libya has affected neighboring countries.

1952/2011

Protesters are once again crowded into Tahrir Square, Cairo’s main thoroughfare, in a response to a draft document that gives guidelines for the constitution that is soon to be drafted.  Under the guidelines, the military as well as it’s budget would be exempt from civilian oversight.  Similar to the events that took place in New York City’s Zuccotti Park, Tahrir Square was cleared of all protesters and tents and banners were removed.  Yet, the methods by which protesters were evicted differed greatly, as military police used tear gas and rubber bullets (fired at head height) to disperse the crowd.  Concerns are now growing among many Egyptians that the current military council has hijacked the revolution, reminiscent of the coup d’etat of the Free Officer's Movement in 1952.

When Gamal Abdel Nasser and his Free Officers (among them Anwar al-Sadat and Hosni Mubarak) smashed the previous political system almost sixty years ago, they took it upon themselves to set the foundation for an Egyptian political system.  The system they hoped would pay less attention to their quasi-colonizer Britain, and more attention to the needs of the Egyptian people (especially peasants and other members of the lower class).  Their plans were noble and altruistic, but the system that they created paralyzed Egypt socio-economically and led to the circumcision of all political movements to empower the single most powerful party, the National Democratic Party (NDP).  What is different between 1952 and 2011 is that the military council in control now (Free Officers in 1952/Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in 2011) is that the Supreme Council (SCAF) does not have a foreign power that it can blame to gain widespread political support.  With the guidelines for the new constitution proposed by the SCAF it cannot be out ruled that the military is planning on an undemocratic future.  It is crucial to keep in mind that one of the conditions for a truly democratic political system is the control of civilians over the military.  This is something the council clearly opposes.  So once again, the people of Egypt have all the rights in the world to crowd Tahrir Square and protest for a future that allows the people of Egypt to be represented accurately.

Libya’s relations to the Desert

Now that Gaddafi is gone and Libya is on its way towards a new political reality, it has to be careful that it does not fall under the hands of an outside regional power like Saudi Arabia in the case of Lebanon, or Iran in the case of Iraq.  Qatar seems to be a good candidate for becoming a patron trying to influence domestic politics in Libya according to The Economist.  Meanwhile, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, was captured dressed up as a camel herder outside of Zintan where he will receive his trial.  The danger of high-tech weaponry escaping the country into Mali, Niger, and Chad is now present as Tuareg rebels, formerly supported by Gaddafi, take the guns they acquired during the revolution back to their countries of origin.  Guest workers from Niger are now also left without a source of income which will greatly reduce the amount of remittances sent back to this poor African state.

The phenomenon of having a patron state seems to become more and more common.  Not only does Libya seem to slowly fall into Qatar’s “sphere of influence,” but Turkey has also shown interests in establishing a no-fly zone over a Syria in turmoil (see the link in the “Other Link” section below).  Foreign influences in the region need to be contained as countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey become more and more dominant.  According to some international critics, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi should get a trial in The Hague.  As mentioned in an earlier article of mine, I do support that Saif should be tried in Libya.  Maybe he will get the death penalty, but if it helps forge a tighter knit Libyan society, then Saif might have to be the sacrifice to achieve that state of relative peacefulness.  It is sad how the African continent is often brushed aside in importance.  The impact of the Libyan revolution is indeed very grave and could lead to instability in Mali, Niger, and Chad since Tuareg rebels gained new arms in the Libyan conflict earlier this year.  Hopefully, Libya will play an equally as important role in employing guest workers as it did before the revolution and hopefully, it will do a better job than the previous regime in appeasing the Tuaregs and making them fit into their respective societies.

Other Links

Arab League rejects Syrian demand to change peace plan

Protesters storm Kuwaiti parliament

Iran 'influenced' Iraq over US troops' exit

Palestinian president to seek unity government with Hamas

Syrian rebels attack Ba'ath party offices in Damascus