Another week, another post. Welcome back yet again. I hope my past to entries have spurred some thinking on the region and inspired you to look a little more into the news that come out of it. Instead of the usual suspects on the list of issues that I discuss, I will particularly focus on the worsening Israeli-Arab relations in the region and the upcoming bid by the Palestinian Authority for Palestinian statehood at the UN in this week’s post. As always make sure to check out the end of the post for articles that I think deserve particular attention (even if they might not necessarily be related to the MENA).
Israeli Regional Isolation over the question of Palestinian Statehood at the UN
In another scene rocking the cold peace/armistice that has lasted between Israel and its Arab neighbors, Jordanians took to the streets on Thursday to protest against the presence of the Israeli embassy in Amman. Protesters demanded the closure shouting slogans like “No Zionist embassy on Arab land ,”in a gathering that was feared to be inspired by last week’s attacks on the Israeli embassy in Cairo. Many of those present in Amman this Thursday were there not just to protest against the presence of the Israelis, but also against the peace treaty that was signed in 1994 between the two countries. This puts the peace treaties between Israel and both Jordan and Egypt in question, since the Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf has just pointed out that the peace treaty between his country and Israel could be altered to address the interests in the region. To make matters worse in the case of Jordan, released WikiLeaks reports have outlined the possible interest of the United States in turning the Jordanian state into a Palestinian one. Given the fact that half of the population of Jordan already consists of Palestinians, it is no wonder that those claiming to be Jordanian take to the streets in order to demonstrate for their interests as group.
Tensions in the region between Turkey, Egypt, and now Jordan on one side and Israel on the other have been increasing in the wake of the bid by the Palestinian Authority (PA) to claim the sovereignty of a full state at the UN with the beginning of the 66th session of the General Assembly. Many arguments have been thrown around by leaders and scholars regarding the situation. Joseph Massad of Columbia University argues that a successful bid would actually be a disadvantage to the Palestinian cause since recognition of the PA as the representative of the Palestinians at the UN instead of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) would decrease the number of Palestinians represented from 12 million worldwide to only those 2 million living in the West Bank. In addition he argues that a more powerful Palestinian state in the UN would increase Israel’s ability to negotiate with the PA on equal terms which would lessen the compassion felt for the Palestinians by non-MENA states. Others question whether Israel could not only be taken to the ICJ by Turkey over their Gaza blockade, but also to the ICC by a new Palestinian state recognized by international treaty organizations over previous alleged war crimes. That however, seems highly unlikely since any case that goes before the ICC can be deferred indefinitely by the UN Security Council. The US would be sure to veto any case brought against Israel. Meanwhile, PM Erdogan of Turkey has vehemently supported Palestinian statehood during his regional trip to Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. The language with which he chose to show his support was along the lines of Israel being a “spoilt child” that stands in the way of peace in the Middle East. (And as a little addendum to last week's post, PM Erdogan chose not to visit the Gaza Strip but mentioned that he has the intention of doing so at a future point in time.) In an effort to make the PA abstain from a vote at the UN and to encourage it to return to bilateral talks with Israel, the US has threatened to cut aid to the PA. As the US increases financial pressure, it was warned by a former Saudi ambassador that a US veto against Palestinian statehood in the Security Council would risk its reputation in the Arab world.
So in the bigger picture, what does the quest of the PA to gain statehood at the UN really mean? In my opinion the question is whether Western powers can afford to help the Libyan people regain their independence, but keep the PA from gaining recognition at the UN. The politics of the region are so fluid that it is time to consider new solutions to very old political problems. Keeping security and peace in the region in mind, leaders on both sides of the issues should make decisions focusing on long-term stability as opposed to short-term gains.
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