A Kingdom in Transition, Political Organizations suddenly threatened, and an Authority's desire for Recognition

I just returned earlier today from volunteering at a local Jewish Community Center.  Besides being able to help with parking for two huge events that were held there today, I was able to help the center run an entertainment station for the kids that were present.  It was good working with people who have such close ties to their home country in the Middle East.  I learned though that it is so crucial not to associate the news coming out of the region with those that might have roots in the region but do not necessarily live there.  Looking at the Israeli flag flying next to the American one, I could not help but think of the Palestinian bid for full statehood at the UN earlier this week.  More on that a little later though.  This week I will try to focus my approach a little more and pick quality over quantity of analysis.  Some of the links I was not able to cover in detail, but that I think are important nonetheless can be found at the bottom of the post.

More Rights, Yeah Just Kidding

Earlier today the BBC published an article outlining the newly acquired right of women to finally vote and run in elections in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This was seen by many as a great step towards more rights for women in this very conservative society.  Let’s view this through the pragmatic idealist lens though.  Saudi Arabia just in the past decade introduced municipal level elections in an attempt to appease the masses call for more freedoms.  Yet, how much freedom do you really enjoy when you only get to vote for half of the municipal council members and the other half is still appointed from Riyadh, the capital?  If women get to have part in this already semi-representational system that only includes municipal offices, it does not represent a great increase in the rights of women.  The article also outlines the fact that women will now be allowed to serve on the King’s advisory council called the Shura Council.  Yet again, this might sound like great news, but let’s take a peak across the Persian Gulf and see how women’s participation has worked out in other highly religious societies.  In Iran women are allowed to serve in state offices as high as the ministerial level.  However, and this is where the catch is, those who are “selected” to serve are so pro status quo that they essentially have no impact on improving women’s rights further.  So does this mean that the changes in suffrage and municipal elections in Saudi Arabia are a positive development?  Yeah, I would say so, but I would not be too quick to praise this as an outstanding development when it is too easy to fill those new positions on the municipal and Shura level with conservative/brainwashed females.  As always we will have to see how this new framework will actually be put to use by the King and the people.

Past the State Level

Deutsche Welle had a great article that gave a good look into the consequences that Bashar Al-Assad’s crackdown in Syria might have on regional power politics including sub-state actors.  According to them, Syria is so deeply intertwined with Hezbollah, the predominant Shiite Islamist movement in Lebanon, and Hamas, the officially elected Sunni Islamist movement in Gaza, that if the Syrian regime goes down, the reputation and future of Hezbollah and Hamas might be threatened.  Both Hezbollah and Hamas are listed as terrorist organizations by the US and the EU.  So if looked at it from the angle of this sub-state actor power play, the current length and intensity of the uprisings in Syria might actually help to topple not just the reign of a dictator, but also the influence of two very powerful, terrorist organizations in the region.

Both the BBC and Al-Jazeera English had articles about Turkey’s worsening ties with Syria.  PM Erdogan and the rest of the leadership of Turkey has grown increasingly frustrated with the Syrian regime’s crackdown and has now promised to intercept any arms on the way to Syria that are in transit through Turkish waters or airspace.  The policies that PM Erdogan has been pursuing are a personal obsession of mine.  The Realpolitik he pursues in his attempt to move Turkey in the position of regional hegemony is impressive.  His policies are unique in that they are aimed towards winning the hearts and minds of the people living within the borders of neighboring states, not the hearts and minds of its oftentimes questionable leaders.  This long-term thinking will pay off as populations replace their leaders with more legitimate regimes.  Anyone know where I can get a poster of this guy? Anyways, moving on to the next topic.

In a Perfect World

Let’s stop for a second and think about a world where the UN actually serves as the Parliament of Man, able to grant membership and thus statehood to anyone it saw fit to join its ranks. Palestine could be granted membership and the Palestine-Israeli Crisis would be resolved.  Easy as that (besides of course negotiations that would have to follow the granting of membership about territory).  Someone once said, that the UN is only as strong as its members want it to be, and the members do not at this point want it to be strong enough to create a new state even though they previously gave the UN those powers with the creation of the State of Israel in 1948.  Both BBC and Al-Jazeera English showcased the proceedings that took place this week with the opening of the 66^th session of the General Assembly in New York City.  After officially handing in the paperwork for the request for full membership of the Palestinian Authority in power in the West Bank by its leader Mahmoud Abbas, he went on to defend Palestine’s right to full membership with the words: “"I do not believe that anyone with a shred of conscience can reject our application for a full membership in the United Nations and our admission as an independent state.”  Yet, the international system is not ready for the UN to grant statehood (again), especially when some international actors like the United States, see this move as an attempt to escape the stalled peace negotiations.  As much as I would like to see the suffering of the Palestinian people end, I do think that people with a “shred of conscience” can reject the Palestinian application for full membership.  Anyone with a shred of conscience would agree peace is the final solution in the Middle East and that sudden full Palestinian membership in the UN would not lead to peace between the Israelis and Palestinians (especially as long as Hamas is still in power in Gaza, but as explained earlier that might change soon too).  Nevertheless, if the Palestinian request for full membership is viewed as legitimate, but still a little premature by the international community Mahmoud Abbas has already won a significant victory for the Palestinian people.  This move will hopefully put more pressure on the Israeli PM Netanyahu and spark new interest in the resolving of this conflict that has almost been around as long as this (still) imperfect Parliament of Man has.

Other Links

China buys gold, challenges US dollar

Feeling Jerusalem

Defiant Ahmadinejad prompts UN walkout (yet again)

A Proper State Already

US hikers land in New York after two years in Iranian jail

UK operations in Libya: the full costs broken down

Focusing on the Long-term Outcome

Another week, another post.  Welcome back yet again.  I hope my past to entries have spurred some thinking on the region and inspired you to look a little more into the news that come out of it.  Instead of the usual suspects on the list of issues that I discuss, I will particularly focus on the worsening Israeli-Arab relations in the region and the upcoming bid by the Palestinian Authority for Palestinian statehood at the UN in this week’s post.  As always make sure to check out the end of the post for articles that I think deserve particular attention (even if they might not necessarily be related to the MENA).

Israeli Regional Isolation over the question of Palestinian Statehood at the UN

In another scene rocking the cold peace/armistice that has lasted between Israel and its Arab neighbors, Jordanians took to the streets on Thursday to protest against the presence of the Israeli embassy in Amman.  Protesters demanded the closure shouting slogans like “No Zionist embassy on Arab land ,”in a gathering that was feared to be inspired by last week’s attacks on the Israeli embassy in Cairo.  Many of those present in Amman this Thursday were there not just to protest against the presence of the Israelis, but also against the peace treaty that was signed in 1994 between the two countries.  This puts the peace treaties between Israel and both Jordan and Egypt in question, since the Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf has just pointed out that the peace treaty between his country and Israel could be altered to address the interests in the region.  To make matters worse in the case of Jordan, released WikiLeaks reports have outlined the possible interest of the United States in turning the Jordanian state into a Palestinian one.  Given the fact that half of the population of Jordan already consists of Palestinians, it is no wonder that those claiming to be Jordanian take to the streets in order to demonstrate for their interests as group.

Tensions in the region between Turkey, Egypt, and now Jordan on one side and Israel on the other have been increasing in the wake of the bid by the Palestinian Authority (PA) to claim the sovereignty of a full state at the UN with the beginning of the 66th session of the General Assembly.  Many arguments have been thrown around by leaders and scholars regarding the situation.  Joseph Massad of Columbia University argues that a successful bid would actually be a disadvantage to the Palestinian cause since recognition of the PA as the representative of the Palestinians at the UN instead of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) would decrease the number of Palestinians represented from 12 million worldwide to only those 2 million living in the West Bank.  In addition he argues that a more powerful Palestinian state in the UN would increase Israel’s ability to negotiate with the PA on equal terms which would lessen the compassion felt for the Palestinians by non-MENA states.  Others question whether Israel could not only be taken to the ICJ by Turkey over their Gaza blockade, but also to the ICC by a new Palestinian state recognized by international treaty organizations over previous alleged war crimes.  That however, seems highly unlikely since any case that goes before the ICC can be deferred indefinitely by the UN Security Council.  The US would be sure to veto any case brought against Israel.  Meanwhile, PM Erdogan of Turkey has vehemently supported Palestinian statehood during his regional trip to Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya.  The language with which he chose to show his support was along the lines of Israel being a “spoilt child” that stands in the way of peace in the Middle East. (And as a little addendum to last week's post, PM Erdogan chose not to visit the Gaza Strip but mentioned that he has the intention of doing so at a future point in time.)  In an effort to make the PA abstain from a vote at the UN and to encourage it to return to bilateral talks with Israel, the US has threatened to cut aid to the PA.  As the US increases financial pressure, it was warned by a former Saudi ambassador that a US veto against Palestinian statehood in the Security Council would risk its reputation in the Arab world.

So in the bigger picture, what does the quest of the PA to gain statehood at the UN really mean?  In my opinion the question is whether Western powers can afford to help the Libyan people regain their independence, but keep the PA from gaining recognition at the UN.  The politics of the region are so fluid that it is time to consider new solutions to very old political problems.  Keeping security and peace in the region in mind, leaders on both sides of the issues should make decisions focusing on long-term stability as opposed to short-term gains.

Other Links

Turkey to site NATO missile shield radar in its South-East

Siemens to quit nuclear industry

Come and be an Israeli!

Libya: Cameron and Sarkozy mobbed in Benghazi

UN chief: Palestine bid 'understandable'

Steve Bell on the Cameron-Sarkozy visit to Libya - cartoon

Greece and Portugal should ditch the Euro, says top economist

A Change in the Balance of Power

Welcome (back) to the second edition of my little blog.  I hope you were all able to attend a memorial service today to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the event that transformed the world.  I was lucky to attend a ceremony at my college campus in which individuals shared their story of 9/11.  It was enlightening to hear some of the stories from those that were actually residing in the area, since it adds another layer of emotion and compassion to this already moving event.  Never forget!

Over the past seven days there have been some major developments in the region.  First off, I am going to look into the shifting balance of power in the region between Egypt, Israel, and Turkey, a topic that I have been following very closely as it is sure to transform regional politics tremendously for the coming years.  Following that I will briefly look into developments in Egypt proper, Libya, and Syria.  And always make sure to look at the end of my posts for the articles of the week that I think deserve some particular attention.

Egypt, Turkey, and Israel: Redefining the Balance of Power in the Region

This week we saw a further threat to regional peace as protesters in the Egyptian capital stormed the Israeli embassy to protest the killing of Egyptian border guards by Israeli forces.  The Israeli ambassador was withdrawn from the country, but Israel vowed to restore diplomatic ties with Cairo as soon as the safety of the embassy personnel could be guaranteed.  Protesters demands included the end of gas exports to the Jewish State.  This is something Israel can ill afford as it imports about 40 percent of its gas from Egypt. 

On the Turkish side of what appears to be the further regional isolation of Israel, we were able to see more restrictions and conditions put upon any further relations between the two states.  Besides expelling the Israeli ambassador and cutting any military trade ties, Turkey also proclaimed that Israel had been ‘disloyal’ to defense contracts that have been hailed as a sign of regional integration in the past.  Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey also said that in the future any Turkish vessel in international waters would be protected by the Turkish Navy.  This could be a possible point of friction between the militaries of the two countries, if there ever is another aid flotilla under the Turkish flag going in the direction of Gaza.

What will be important to look out for in the upcoming week is tomorrow’s visit of PM Erdogan to Cairo.  If he is interested in the further isolation of Israel, he could strike a deal using financial tools to influence Egypt into further straining its ties with Tel Aviv.  Another point of concern for Israel is also a possible visit by PM Erdogan to the Gaza strip, where he would surely receive a hero’s welcome by the people whose cause he has been heralding on the international stage.

Turkey really seems to have the initiative right now and in my opinion it is scary to imagine the possible outcomes if Turkey continues to be as direct with Israel as it has been.  Nonetheless, it was to be expected that at some point one of the states in the region would challenge Israel.  Yet, Turkey would have probably been the last state from which I would have predicted such drastic moves.

Egypt: The Ongoing Protest

Tahrir Square in Cairo has seen an uncountable number of protests ever since February.  This week, the protesters in the square were (once again) demanding that the military hold its promises of reform, and that there be a detailed timetable established that outlines the steps to be taken towards a transition from military to civilian rule.  This is of particular interest to those in Egypt which do not belong to or follow the Muslim Brotherhood.  One of the major concerns of other parties in the country has been, that the interim period between Mubarak and a new regime will be too short to allow other political parties besides the Brotherhood to form.  If the military decides to keep the interim period short and sweet, it would definitely play into the hands of the Islamic party.

Libya: Looking for Refuge and Justice

As the NTC is already talking about forming the first transition government, the question of where Gaddafi and his family have disappeared to still remains.  Just yesterday, Gaddafi’s son Saadi turned up in Niger, confirming possible fears that the dictator, wanted by the ICC might decide to escape to either Niger or Burkina Faso deeper into the African continent.  The fact that Niger has trouble securing its long border because of a lack of resources only makes Gaddafi’s escape through the country more likely.  Meanwhile at home in Libya, the NTC has to make sure that those innocent of aiding Gaddafi in his last ditch effort to hold onto the country are not targeted because of the color of their skin.  Many of the mercenaries hired by Gaddafi were of African origin.  About 5000 Africans have been rounded up in Tripoli alone and the question remains whether it is possible to give a fair trial and to determine if those incarcerated are actually guilty or only held for the color of their skin.

Syria: Indicators of Change

In the ongoing protests in Syria, there finally seems to be some minor indicators that after six months the support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime is waning.  There have been some defections from the Syrian army over refusal to shoot protesters, and Iran, a long time ally of al-Assad, has been calling for talks between the protesters and the regime.  If this is the start of more drastic change remains to be seen, but time definitely seems to be in favor of the people of Syria who have been waiting for their political freedoms for so long.

Other Links

The Impact of Al-Qaeda 

Are Turkey and Israel on a collision course?

The Economist, September 13th, 2001

Attack on Israeli Embassy in Cairo

The Precision of NATO airstrikes

If you have any comments, please post them below or send me an email to the address in my profile.  Stay tuned and see you next Monday.

The week of falling dictators, rising Prime Ministers, and defiant Presidents.

How many weeks of the year do you see a 42-year old dictatorship toppled?  Even though not all events this week were as positive, I must still say that this is a great week to start blogging about such a dynamic region of the world.  Here is a run-down of what’s new this week by country.  And make sure to read through this post (or at least scroll down to the bottom) as I will add always try to add a humorous touch to an otherwise too serious blog with links to some of the more ridiculous reports I was able to find throughout the week.  In that section you will also find links to those articles that I found particularly interesting, but that did not fit in any of my country/topic groups.

Libya: How much news about one country can you handle?

With Gaddafi on the verge of being toppled, newspapers and magazines have been filled with reports about the many aspects that entail the downfall of a regime that lasted close to half a century.  How much news about one country can you really read before your mind stops drifting?  Here is what you need to know.

Now that Gaddafi has been ousted by the National Transitional Council (NTC) it is only a matter of time until he turns up in some kind of hole similar to the one Saddam Hussein used in 2003.  Hopefully, this will be the only overlap between Iraq and Libya as I will discuss later.  The NTC is now faced with a tremendous task.  Will it be able to stay united as a front that can lead the people of Libya to a democratic and more importantly open society? 

The failures of Iraq and Afghanistan immediately come to mind.  The page in the newspaper covering yet another act of terrorism and violence by militant Islamic organizations has sadly become about as interesting as the daily weather forecast.  Yet, can we expect for Libya to turn into another failed attempt of regime change?  Many indicators point against it.  As pointed out by Al-Jazeera, Libya actually appears to start of from a far better position.  With little to no debt outstanding and no existing (repressive) political institutions like the ones present in Egypt right after the revolution there, the NTC will be able to present change far quicker thanks to incoming oil revenues and the absence of political institutions that would need to reformed.  French and British oil companies are surely going to profit, no matter which way Libya turns politically, as a little thank you for providing the NTC forces with a UN sanctioned air force through NATO.

Externally, Libya appears to be well placed, but what about internal issues?  Iraq and Afghanistan both feature a very heterogeneous population as opposed to Libya.  Mostly populated by Sunni Muslims, a danger Libya might face is tribal clashes over the power vacuum that might follow, if the transition is carried out without taking into consideration Libya’s very detailed tribal culture. 

Remember that call for donations for the ongoing famine in the Horn of Africa?  Somalia had a government once too, even though it might have been twenty years since that was the case.  That government was brought down by tribal clashes which were fought because the Somali tribes could not agree on how to fill the political vacuum left behind by the former dictator of Somalia, Siad Barre.  Will Libya follow the example of infighting that has been taking place in Somalia in the past two decades?  I most certainly do not hope so.

As much as it pains me to look at Libya through the rather over-used lens of post-9/11 security interests, it is necessary to consider Libya as a safe heaven for militant Islamist organizations like Al-Qaeda.  According to Deutsche Welle the threat emanating from Libyan, militant Islamists remains minimal.  There is a small core group of militant Islamists, called the Salafis, which embrace a purer and more archaic Islam.  Yet, 600 Salafis in a country of 6.5 million are not going to cause any tremendous change to a political structure.  And after all every country has its religious extremists.  The key is to keep arms out of their hands, which should prove difficult given the amount of weapons that have been circulating in Libya in the past months.

A final point that I wanted to stress is (yet again) the difficult integration that the NTC will have to deal with once peace is restored to the country.  It will be crucial to not only find a durable solution to any kind of tribal clashes that might break out, but it will also be crucial to include such minority groups politically that have previously been repressed (i.e. the Berber ethnic group), and to normalize ties with Libya’s African neighbors which still have refused to recognize the NTC as Libya’s official representative.  This may prove extremely difficult given the fact that many of the mercenaries that fought in Gaddafi’s militia stem from the 54 member-states in the African Union (AU).

Turkey: A Rising Regional Player

Turkey probably wins the award for being the most politically direct state of the week.  Besides bombing ‘Kurdish rebels’ from the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in Northern Iraq (infringing on international, territorial borders), it has just severed its diplomatic ties with Israel.  No big deal.  The sudden deterioration of ties came with the release of a UN report that deemed Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip legal, but carried out with unreasonable force.  Turkey’s foreign minister, Mr. Ahmet Davutoglu, was swift to downgrade ties with Israel after the country’s regime refused to apologize for the bloody Gaza flotilla raid in 2010.  Mr Davutoglu, further said that Turkey will take Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the legality of the blockade on the Gaza Strip.

A question that remains in my head is how far Turkey under Prime Minister Erdogan can keep playing both the pro-Western and pro-Palestinian side?  If it manages to do both however, become a member of the European Union (EU), and herald the cause of the Palestinian s successfully, it will become one of the leading regional powers in the MENA.

Syria: The next Libya?

The Economist had a great article discussing why Syrian protesters are willing to go out on the streets against their government despite the continued repression against them.  The answer is quite simple: dignity.  By killing more and more of Syrian citizens, President Bashar al-Assad slowly digs him-self a deeper and deeper grave.  Every Syrian that dies by the hands of his forces will only increase the feeling of robbed dignity experienced by the people in the streets.  Also, how much legitimacy does a government have that even right after the celebration of the end of the holy month Ramadan goes out and kills people? 

There is hope for the Syrian people though, as the EU has finally decided to impose sanctions on Syrian oil imports.  The realists among us might argue: “well, but economic sanctions are no hard solution to government repression.”  And yes, they might be right, if the EU member states did not buy up 95% of Syrian oil exports.  Syrian’s are faithful that this new sanction will slowly drive President al-Assad into dire financial straights, and for the sake of a freer and more importantly less bloody Syria, I hope so too.

Other Links

• American college kid joins Libya rebels for 'vacation'
• Chinese-made Qur'ans full of errors, warns Iranian official 
• Dutch gameshow for failed asylum seekers 
• Will Sarkozy get a statue in Tripoli?

And with these few links I say Good bye and until next week.  Please make sure to stop in next Monday for my next update on happenings in MENA.  I will try to be a little more detailed next week.  It’s almost 3am here and moving back to college has kind of kept me from writing a whole ton.  Please leave any comments either here on my blog or send me an email to the address listed in my profile!

A Humble Beginning

If there is one thing I have learned during my years in college, than it is that everyone has a set of political opinions that do not always coincide and that are not very easily changed.  Many of my best friends consider themselves right of center when it comes to American politics and this has often led to heated debates about the direction that our country should be headed in, but American politics shall not be the topic of this blog.  Yet, I cannot deny that my interest in the region that this blog does cover is not linked directly to the United States of America.  Just like so many stories about the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), my initial interest date all the way back to this faithful day in September 2011.  When the twin towers fell, I was a ten year old boy residing outside of Frankfurt, Germany, with little knowledge about the United States besides that it was the country where opportunities were unlimited and where the streets were paved with gold.  (Of course, I would later find out that those words should not be taken literally.)  I did not know what the World Trade Center was and I did not understand the severity of the situation.  The next day, we held a minute of silence to commemorate the victims of a tragic attack in a country so far away.  That day must have been the day, when a small spark lit the ever-growing flame that stands for my interest in International Studies in general and the MENA in particular.  Who were these people that committed this atrocity?  What were their motives?  Are they representative of the places they came from?  Question after question remained without answer, and only in the past couple of years, after specializing in International Studies, was I able to find some answers.  In the coming week we mark the tenth anniversary of 9/11.  I think now, after a whole decade, I have not only reached the academic potential to answer my own questions, but also to write about trends and underlying events in the region that are either not very publicized or brushed aside as unimportant even though they might have crucial local as well as global impacts.  On this blog, there will be weekly updates on events in MENA with information pulled from several (non-American) news networks which can be found in the links at the bottom of the page.  Naturally, as a young student, my views may appear a little to idealistic, but as the title suggests, I will try to keep it in the realm of the probable.  Please feel free to contact me with any suggestions and comments under the email in my profile.  This is my first blog so I hope you will bear with me as we both move through this experience together.