Defensive Rhetoric and why the International Criminal Court should sometime reconsider its jurisdiction

Happy Snowoween?  The northeast of the United States just saw several inches of snow and Halloween has not even passed yet.  Never in my life have I seen snow fall this early in the year.  Along with the snow that fell came the many arguments for the fact that global warming is true.  Facebook exploded with comments about the early snow and global warming.  My favorite was: “I told you so. #AlGore.” because it exactly summarizes what my view on this topic is.  While I might not be greatly engaged with the environmental scene, I do believe that if we do not consciously reduce our carbon output we will slowly but surely destroy the planet we live on and with it the future of humanity.  It makes me proud to see that my country of birth, Germany, is the global leader in countering current carbon dioxide levels, but it upsets me to see that so little is done by other states around the world.  If you think that global warming is a myth, then chances are that you also have a more realistic view on politics in the world.  There is a very easy way to convince you to reduce the use of carbon based fuels that is tied to the region that this blog is about.  The United States and other western powers are prone to being blackmailed by such countries as Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia as long as we keep relying on their oil resources.  If we want to see our countries free from foreign influence we will have to start finding alternative energies that can be produced at home and not abroad.  Strategies like these will ensure that the United States and other western powers will remain crucial international players in the coming decade.

This week I will focus on Syria’s continued crackdown on its population, and on the justice that Saif al-Islam, Gaddafi’s son, can expect when he is captured.

Syria: A repeat of Libya or another Afghanistan?

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has warned the West that if it was to intervene in the country it would cause an earthquake in the region.  He further stated that if the West was to intervene, another Afghanistan would be born out of the ruins of the Syrian regime. After seven months of protests the UN estimates that 3000 have died in the mostly non-violent protests.  After the bloodiest clashes to date on Saturday, the Arab League finally issued a statement issuing its concerns about the continued killing of Syrian civilians.  Furthermore, a new group called the Free Syrian Army has formed.  The group is made up of defectors from the Syrian army and is based out of the Turkish-Syrian border region.  They could be the start of the first coordinated violent response to the continued crackdown by President al-Assad’s forces.  There have been calls for international intervention, but so far nothing has happened due to the veto of China and Russia in the Security Council about anything that has to do with Syria.

It is time for the international community to act and help the Syrian people to depose of their leader.  Even if he had some kind of legitimacy before the uprising, he definitely eroded the last bit of it when he decided to roll out his tanks against his own people.  The rhetoric that Assad uses, reminds one of the same kind of talk that Gaddafi as his power started to wane.  Gaddafi talked about the “Crusaders” who had come to take Libya like in ancient times.  He attempted to mobilize his people.  Assad on the other hand uses the comparison to Afghanistan in order to deter foreign forces from intervening.  Why does he do this?  Because he knows that his own people do not stand behind him since he is the minority Shia ruler of a mostly Sunni country.  Can Russia and China really stand behind a leader that is not recognized as legitimate by his own people?  I understand that these two countries want to preserve their strong ties with the Syrian state, but in the long-run they will fail in accomplishing their goal because the victory of the people of Syria is inevitable.  When they come to power they will make sure to reconsider ties with those who spoke out against them during their revolution.  My hopes now lie with the Free Syrian Army which will hopefully gain momentum as the crackdown by Syrian forces grows more intense.

Libya: Between International and Domestic Justice

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son and heir apparent to Gaddafi’s Libya, was called "the last piece” in bringing Gaddafi’s Libya to an end by Colonel Ahmed Bani, the military spokesman for Libya’s interim government.  The ICC has reported that Saif has been in contact with it through intermediaries and that he wanted to prove his innocence so that the court would withdraw the warrant that was issued on him.  Meanwhile, the interim government has voiced its desire to give Saif a trial in Libya despite the warrant on his head by the ICC.  Despite the legal debacle about “the last piece” Libya seems to be well on its way towards a more liberal political system and the countries oil production is recovering far faster than the one in Iraq did after the Second Gulf War.

Despite the fact that Libya is not a member of the ICC, I would like to make an argument about the appropriateness of the ICC to intervene in cases of internal regime change.  Should the ICC in a case like Libya still have the right to prosecute criminals associated with the former regime over the new regime that more accurately presents the will of the people?  Given the cruel justice that Saif’s father received the answer might be no, but in all honesty I think that in this case the state should be allowed to exercise its sovereignty despite the commendable goals that the ICC has.  Libya could prove that it has a judicial system that is just and respectful by putting Saif on trial.  This would help to lessen the impact that Gaddafi’s killing has had on the perception of Libya abroad (as discussed last week).  And by the way, do you seriously think that Saif has any desire to proof his innocence to a relatively weak court that issued a warrant on him and his father?  I think it more likely that he will escape Libya (if he hasn’t yet) and search refuge somewhere where the ICC will never get its hands on him.  Hopefully, not too much efforts will be wasted on finding Saif as Libya should start looking towards the future.  There is no point in dwelling about the past too much.

Other Links

How Egypt's activists used social media and Cairo's taxis

Israeli air strikes kill nine militants

When Dad goes to war

Arab Spring activists win human rights award

Germany faces questions over alleged spy agency involvement in Libya

The Death of Kings and the Necessity of Negotiating with Terrorists

I just returned from the 2011 National Model United Nations Conference in Washington, DC.  These conferences are a great exercise in public speaking and diplomacy, but sadly they also show the weaknesses that exist in the world of international politics.  Every time I return from a Model UN conference I wonder how useful the international system actually is in solving issues that matter to us.  By no means is the UN a useless organization, but the flaws that exist when member-states are still not willing to cede some sovereignty to an organization promoting global governance cannot be ignored.  Consensus voting as it is practiced by the General Assembly will never bring humanity to adhere to greater standards, simply because we always agree on the lowest common denominator when it comes to issues like poverty, famine, and human rights.  What am I trying to say?  Member-states of the UN should grant the organization more powers so that issues that plague humanity can be solved by the parliament that governs humanity.

Given the great weekend I had in DC, please do not expect this post to be intellectually stimulating in any kind of way.  I am extremely exhausted, but wish to publish this post right now so that you don’t have to wait an extra day for your weekly post.  This week I am going to focus on the circumstances of Gaddafi’s death and I am going to discuss the situation and future of Somalia.  As always check the end of the post for articles I consider important as well.

The King is Dead! Long Live the Republic!

As I am sure you have already heard Colonel Gaddafi, the King of Kings of Africa, has finally met his end.  After 42 years of rule, Gaddafi was supposedly shot in the head by one of the soldiers that led the attack on the autocrat’s convoy as he tried to escape his birthplace of Sirte.  A bullet hole on the left side of his head marks the entrance point of the bullet that ended the longest rule of any man in all of Africa.  His body is now on display in a storage freezer in the city of Misrata which had seen the fiercest fighting during the eight month long revolution.

What is wrong with all of this?  Well seen from the point of view of the average Libyan, the Colonel probably got what he had coming in a more timely fashion without the delay of a justice system.  The death of Gaddafi was brought about by a soldier who in the Battle of Sirte could have been carried away by the bloodlust and emotion that comes with being exposed to such gruesome scenes.  The people of Libya wanted justice, and it was delivered by the pistol of a soldier instead of the gavel of a judge in The Hague.  Seen in the broader picture though, the way Gaddafi was killed and the way he is on display to the masses now has some very serious implications in terms of international politics.  The extrajudicial killing of the former leader of Libya means that the new Libyan Republic will be born out of blood with a stained human rights record.  With the increased emphasis of the importance of human rights by developed states, it is crucial for states like Libya to have a spotless human rights record in order to start off on good terms with strong economic powers in the area (i.e. the member-states of the EU).  The killing of Gaddafi also takes away from the legitimacy of the new government which can now be hardly seen as a regime that treats all equal, even bigger than life leaders.  The display of Gaddafi’s body is furthermore against Islamic burial tradition which calls upon the burial of a deceased Muslim to take place as soon as possible.  The new regime might very well take criticism for exposing the dead body of a Muslim for such a long time from fellow Arab states.  Regardless, the people of Libya are celebrating that after eight months they have finally gained their complete independence.

Negotiating with the Bad Guys

I was reading through last week’s Economist today and came across an article that reminded my of a paper I wrote for my Terrorism in the Modern World class last year.  The article I read dealt with the fact that it might be in the interest for Western powers to negotiate with dominant powers in this Eastern African country, even if those dominant powers have fundamentalist tendencies like the terrorist group Al-Shabaab.  I figured I would publish my paper so you can get a better idea of how Al-Shabaab became to be and why I agree so much with the Economist’s point of view.  A link to the paper is added at the end of this post.  Please excuse the formatting.  I am still trying to find a website with which I can upload and display my papers properly (so please let me know if you know one!)  Here is also a link that gives you a little visual on how things are looking on the ground in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia.

The Birth and Annals of a Terrorist Organization: Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen

Other Links

Heir to Saudi Arabia throne dies

High turn out as Tunisia's historic poll ends

Obama: Full Iraq withdrawal by Christmas

Dozens die as strong quake rocks eastern Turkey

Tunisians flock to voting stations for first taste of democracy in 50 years

Deal and No Deal

This week a bunch of my friends went to the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations in downtown Manhattan.  I don’t think I have ever seen people at my school so divided over an issue that does not even fall within their usual area of interest.  And that is exactly where the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations become dangerous.  If people who have little to no idea about how the world economy works decide to take part in a demonstration that targets one of the main drivers of the world economy, why are they there?  I think many young people attend the demonstration because it is ‘cool’ to go to something that challenges the current system, even when this system is so well established that abandoning or altering it would be very difficult and probably detrimental.  Another thought that crosses my mind is whether the time at which these protests are occurring is related to the public uprisings in the MENA.  Given the recent success in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt of political revolutions in disposing their infamous leaders, why not stage a revolution that challenges the economic system at a time where Western capitalism is struggling?

This week, I will focus on the prisoner swap that is taking place between Hamas and the Israeli government, and recent developments between Iran and the USA. As always make sure to check the end of the post for additional links (this week particularly about Occupy Wall Street).

A Game of Numbers

Israel agreed to release 1,027 Palestinians for the return of one of their soldiers, Gilad Shalit, who was captured five years ago, on June 25^th, 2006, at the age of 19 by the Islamist organization Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  The Economist’s headline “An extraordinary exchange rate” probably summarizes best what can be described as a pretty lopsided deal.  Both parties are likely to gain fame among their own populations and abroad at a time where it is needed to secure a solid base of support in a region in transition.  Hamas was able to secure many of its most infamous members who have been serving decades of prison terms for committing acts of terrorism during both intifadas.  The return of over a thousand Palestinians, many of which were expected to remain locked in Israeli prisons for the remainder of their lives, is sure to give Hamas renewed legitimacy from Palestinians not just in the Gaza Strip, but also in the West Bank and abroad.  Israel, working closely with Egypt to ensure the smooth transfer of prisoners, is sure to gain support domestically from a population that has been waiting for Sergeant Shalit to be freed and internationally from countries that see this prisoner transfer as a step towards mutual recognition between Hamas and the Israeli state.  Without a doubt many of those released will pick up arms to fight Israel again.  So in the long-run is it going to be worth it for Israel to release so many of its public enemies?  Cooperation over the release with Egypt will help to fix the strained ties between the two countries and when looking at it that way, the release of some one thousand prisoners is worth a peace treaty that took thirty years and four wars to come about.

“Me? Nahhhhhh.”

This past week, Iran proved once again that it is the number one state in the world when it comes to denial.  After a plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador was unveiled by a US undercover agent acting as a member Mexican drug gangster, President Obama was quick to accuse the Iranian regime of planning the attack on the Saudi envoy’s life.  Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad both denied the claim that this assassination was ordered by their regime, even though one of the two planners was identified as belonging to the Quds Force, a special unit under direct control of the Ayatollah tasked with exporting the Islamist Revolution beyond the borders of Iran.  Both of them also advised the United States from refraining from any kind of retaliation.  (If that in itself is not a sign of guilt I don’t know what is!)  Iranian experts chimed into the condemnation of the United States by stating that Iran would have no benefit from assassinating the Saudi ambassador in Washington.  While some might claim that a state-sponsored act of terrorism could lead to a war between the United States and Iran, I have to agree with the remarks made at the end of this Deutsche Welle article.  It is unlikely that the United States will be willing to enter another prolonged war in a region that is already in great turmoil.  The chance to attract more negative attention is simply too great.  I support President Obama for wanting to prosecute Iran internationally and I hope that he will be able to use the international system to weaken the legitimacy of Iran’s leadership.  Oh and one last note: Do you really think that Iran has no reason to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States?  Wouldn’t that just show how ‘high and mighty’ Iran is if it is able to murder the envoys of its greatest regional enemy, Saudi Arabia, even in the most secure state of the world?  I don’t think we need to look any further than Iraq and Bahrain to see that those two states are so pitted against each other that I would not put the assassination of diplomats in other states beyond them.

Other Links

Report: Arab Spring upheaval cost $55bn

In pictures: Occupy the World

What is money?

Arab League foreign ministers discuss Syria

Libya: Bulldozers raze Gaddafi Bab al-Aziziya compound

Being responsible to those relying on you

Today’s anecdote goes out to all of those out there who still do not believe in this little concept called global warming.  We are moving towards the middle of October and still it was almost 80 degrees Fahrenheit (about 27 degrees Celsius) in Northern New Jersey.  I honestly felt like it was the middle of August all over again when I had just returned from my summer trip in Europe.  It is time for us to clean up our own act so that we can hold the greatest polluters responsible with a clear consciousness.  A whole other blog could be written on that topic though so let’s focus back on the Middle East and North Africa.

The articles I will highlight are the beheading of guest workers in Saudi Arabia, the sudden change of mind of one of Syria’s main supporters, and Egypt’s creeping advances towards democracy.  As always there will be some links at the end of the post that I think deserve particular attention so make sure to check these out (two of them are very picture heavy for those of you who get tired reading my post).

Adding insult to injury

Why is it significant that Saudi Arabia just executed eight Bangladeshi guest workers publicly and condemned three others to prison terms and flogging over the murder of an Egyptian citizen in 2007?  Saudi Arabia just like many other states which are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), an organization akin to the EU, houses a significant number (usually in the millions) of guest workers from Asian countries.  Lured with the promise of high wages, those workers are literally held hostage in countries like Saudi Arabia, getting paid a minimal wage.  They are only allowed to leave after their sponsor, who has to be a Saudi Arabian citizen, returns their passport to them which is collected at the time of their arrival.  Now take this serf-like system of employment and throw a dead body into the mix.  How easy would it be to frame a group of non-Arabic speaking guest workers at your mercy for committing the murder of a Muslim?  Put them in front of a Shari’a court that only operates in the Arabic language and they will not even be able to defend themselves.  By no means am I trying to defend the murder of a human being, because who knows maybe those eleven Bangladeshis were guilty of the crime.  Yet, the justice system in Saudi Arabia is too quick to hand out the death penalty (in this case beheading) to too many.  And it would be no surprise to me if this case of further abuse would be seen as adding insult to the injury of servitude that the guest workers in GCC countries are experiencing.

A turn in events, well maybe

Even those of you out there who dislike the UN and call it a useless bureaucracy have to admit that the UN’s Security Council responded appropriately when it came to protecting the Libyan rebels.  Without the legitimization by the Security Council of a NATO intervention in Libya, the rebels revolution would have been stopped in it’s tracks at Benghazi.  Granted, whether or not Western powers should intervene in MENA countries is another issue that some might have here, but overall it can be agreed that many lives were saved when Colonel Gaddafi’s troops were kept from taking the rebel’s capital city.  Yet, as appropriate as the response by the Security Council might be, any decision made by it is dependent on the agreement of the five veto powers, and this is where the current uprising in Syria comes into play.  In the past, both Russia and China have vetoed any kind of condemnation of the violence committed by the Al-Assad regime in Syria.  A condemnation would be a necessary precursor to any kind of resolution calling for military intervention, so in effect the Russians and Chinese representatives have prevented the Syrian rebels from receiving support like the Libyan rebels did.  Now with a new call by President Medvedev of Russia for Al-Assad to facilitate reforms or step down, the pressure for the repressive leader of Syria has increased.  An abstention from Russia on the Security Council would make an intervention in Syria more likely.  Maybe that is why the Syrian regime has warned other states from recognizing the newly declared National Council that stands in opposition to Al-Assad.  A repeat of Libya is definitely not in the interest of the current regime.  The pressure is on.

Why aren’t we doing it like them?

Do you remember the old cheesy saying that you hear every time the question comes up of why history is important: “Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.”  No other saying could be more appropriate as the Egyptian public looks westward and wonders at the sight of Tunisian democratic progress “why aren’t we doing it like them?”  Are the Egyptians doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past as they enter another alleged ‘transitional period’ that leads to the holy grail of democracy?  Keeping in mind that the last transitional period heralded in by Egypt’s military lasted sixty years and was everything but democratic in nature, another junta of generals should bring about a certain unease when it comes to Egypt’s political future.  The Tunisians are due to vote on the 23^rd of October, while the Egyptians will have three staggered elections to determine the members of the lower and upper house who will then draft the resolution.  Both houses will be elected by next March.  This will leave the Egyptians lagging behind five months in the democratic process, even though Egypt’s revolution was successful only a month after former President Ben Ali of Tunisia was ousted.  So why aren’t they doing it like them?  The thought lies near that we are in for another round of autocratic rule.

Other Links

In Pictures: Ten years of war in Afghanistan

A drinker's guide to Islam (oh the irony)

The Battle for Sirte

Berlin plans airlift for wounded Libyans

Protesters attack TV station over film Persepolis (great film, watch it!)

Of Mosques, Fossil Fuels, and Evil Masterminds

Welcome back to this week’s edition of Pragmatic Realism.  If you are new to the blog, I hope that I can catch your interest to what is happening in the Middle East, and if you are returning, I hope that my honest and critical analysis has sparked some kind of interest in you that will keep you coming in the future. 

Let me start this week’s post with a little personal aside, just like I did last week’s.  One of the things that made my week was that Tunisian acquaintance I made in Zurich, Switzerland, got back to me over email almost three months after our brief encounter at the Youth Hostel there.  It was great to hear how he is doing back in Tunis and it feels good to know that some people do indeed hold to their word and care about another despite the fact that they might not see each other for years to come and that they might not even live on the same continent.  I am sure he will have much to tell me once the first Tunisian elections since the Jasmine Revolution get on their way on October 23^rd.

Topics I will cover this week are the importance of mosques in the Syrian uprisings, tensions over natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean, and the sudden demise of Anwar al-Awlaki.  As always I will add some of the links I did not get a chance to comment on to the end of my post.

God is Great, and so are his Holy Places

Al Jazeera’s reporter Nir Rosen just returned from Syria in the past weeks and has given some great insight into what is happening behind the scenes in Syria.  An interview with him can be viewed here.  Ever since the beginning of the uprisings in Syria over six months ago, the country has been closed off to foreign media and coverage on what is happening in the country has been sparse at best.  This is why Nir Rosen’s account is so crucial because it is one of the few first hand accounts to come out of the country.

One of Rosen’s main points is that the mosques in the country actually serve as the main rallying points in the uprising since the government has blocked off all the main squares and other public places.  So what to use if there is no Tharir Square (like in Egypt) available to stage anti-government protests?  Go to a place that is outside of the jurisdiction of the state, but that can still accommodate a great quantity of people, like a mosque.  There is little the government can do to storm these holy places without loosing the little legitimacy that they might still hold in the eyes of the population.  That being said, mosques are used both by Sunni Muslims and Shiite Alawites who either protest against or for the government respectively.  “Allahu Akbar” or God is Great, as they commonly say in the MENA.  God is great, and so are his holy places, because their legitimacy fracturing characteristic can serve as the stepping stone for a successful uprising in Syria.

Stirring Up an Old Fire to Fuel the Future of Fossil Fuels

The age old feud between Greece and Turkey about which country is the greatest on the Aegean Sea is about to go into the next round with the discovery of natural gas reserves off the coast of Cyprus.  With reserves of hydrocarbons “worth billions of dollars” right off the shore of Cyprus, the unresolved conflict over the island, which was started in 1974 when Turkish troops invaded the small island state, enters a new stage in which Greece and Turkey have to contend with a third interested party, Israel, over who can lay claim to the newly found resources.  The stakes are high since the winner in this new regional power battle will able to dominate the future European market for natural gas. 

Will this new development lead the leaders of northern Turkish Cyprus and southern Greek Cyprus to finally reconcile or will it drive them apart?  With Israeli F-15 and Turkish F-16 playing war-games in the airspace above gunboats guarding exploration ships this seems very unlikely.  Rather this should be viewed as another venue in which Israel and Turkey can contend for regional hegemony.  Restoring relations between Turkey and Israel just became more difficult than it already has been in light of the Israeli blockade of Gaza and the casualties that the two nations have already inflicted on each other during the 2010 Gaza flotilla raid.

Lawless Killing or Righteous Act?

The death of Anwar al-Awlaki, the infamous American-Yemeni preacher who was associated with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), on Friday the 30^th of September has had a tremendous domestic American and international impact.  Is it right of the President to authorize the killing on sight of an American citizen?  If we review the works of al-Awlaki as The Guardian does in this obituary, we can see that the “assassination” of an American citizen by American forces can be argued without a doubt.  Yet, who am I to judge what has been done?  What interests me is how this will play out on the future War on Terror, the Yemeni uprising (which I sadly haven’t really had a chance to cover), and the extension of President Obama’s term.  

The “paradox” that Anwar al-Awlaki was as a dual citizen of the US and Yemen, was truly unique.  He, as opposed to others in the Al-Qaeda network, knew what he was preaching hate against in detail since he grew up exposed to American culture.  The greatness of his loss to Al-Qaeda just shows the importance that his demise carries for Western governments who have had to deal with those individuals inspired by his cries for jihad.  It will be hard to replace such a unique individual like him, but we should not forget that there has been other American citizens, most notoriously Adam Gadahn (nicknamed “Azzam the American”), who have decided to betray their country and commit violence against innocents.

Much of Yemen’s argument for continued financial support was based on its alleged hunt for terrorists in the country.  Now that the most wanted terrorist located in the country has been hunted down and killed, there is little that President Saleh can do or say to keep the US from cutting off funds (especially given the cuts in spending that our government should do).  Al-Awlaki’s death will hopefully lead to the fall of another dictator that has failed to address Yemen’s water scarcity and increasing financial burdens due to decreasing revenue from oil sales.

Another terrorist dead under President Obama’s watch, if that does not silence those war hawks out there then I do not know what will.  With little success at home negotiating with an ever divided House of Representatives over decreasing the deficit and paying off some of the countries debt, his foreign record needs to shine if he wants to pull a win in the upcoming elections. 

God bless America for making the world a saver place!

Other Links

Campaigning begins for landmark elections in Tunisia

Iran rejects two-state solution for Palestine

Gaddafi graffiti speaks volume in Tripoli (This one is great!)

The Haqqani Network: Snake Country

Denmark becomes first country to slap "fat tax" on food products